To remove : continuous bad results, and any type of fraud, mostly based on results only for mid-caps, for small caps it required continuous monitoring as so many factors need to be taken care of.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Tara Chand Infralogistic Solutions Ltd (18-11-2023)
thanks Ashar for the comments. Have highlighted few macro risks only. I dont feel any major risk to the company or stock at present. Also would like to add that have even reviewed the financials and AR and could not see any forensic or accounting issues here.
Have invested in the company for long term only. Truly believe it is a sanghvi kind of story whereas sanghvi is exposed to wind sector only which is a bigger risk.
On the PE expansion, it can happen anytime if investors realise that Cranes have to be depreciated 20% every year as per Companies Act. Once the equipment gets little old, Dep shall go down and PAT shall go up resulting in PE expansion.
IDFC First Bank Limited (18-11-2023)
Hi. Have recently exited IDFC First Bank due to below reasons. Would like to inform the VP forum:
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Increase in NPS provisioning results into risk that Bank will keep on provisioning high on unsecured loans and high risky loans as compared to large banks. This quarter most of the banks had reduced provisioning but was not the same for IDFC.
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High C/I ratio will take few years to come down due to high touch business model of the bank and investment in tech.
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ROE is significantly lower as compared to other large banks. Will keep on raising capital whereas large banks don’t need capital to grow. It would be tough to generate strong alpha from here for few years till ROE & C/I doesnt improve.
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Journey from here on will not be easy growing at 25% CAGR. Deposit war is very tight and bank has to keep on investing in branches to grow.
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With recent increase in risk weight on unsecured loans, PL and other USL COF and risk weight shall go up and bank will have to focus more on secured lending which will result in NIM pressure.
Reduced financial sector allocation significantly since there are much distinct opportunities in Manufacturing, engineering, pipes, railway beneficiaries, water and many fast growing sectors in small and micro cap space which can lead to much higher alpha as compared to large banks in medium term.
P.S: Continue to hold Equitas since they are into distinct and less competitive sector within banking + Secured lending. Views are personal.
Tara Chand Infralogistic Solutions Ltd (18-11-2023)
Thanks For the input
Certain Point to be added Are that since the company’s Major tailwind will be Bharat’s Capex Cycle
We have to continuously track Capex Spend of Various Sector
See Sanghvi Movers for example during the time of Slow growth in Economy during 2015- 2019 the company suffered a lot on bottom lines
But one thing to add is that Sanghvi is more dependent upon Wind Energy Space
That makes them heavily reliant on single Sector
Where as Tarachand is Equally diversified in Mining, Railway, Cement, and Infra
In Recent concall they said they want to take Revenue from Equipment rental in Cement capex to be taken at current Mining’s Level (35%)
For Such a small Company and having Clients like ACC, Ambuja, LT) is quite Big
also they have the product Portfolio Equally competitive as that of ACE and Sanghvi their largest Vehicle In Fleet is of the same size of that of Sanghvi
and correction on your comment imo about
They Have Left this work since this work was majorly Sub contracting and they were loss making there
Imo the real growth will start in next 2 Years when the Machinery is half way Depreciated and there is better pricing and also Utilization of the equipment’s
Very true But the sector is very Similar to Economy as large and if economy is seeing down turn that will be the first clue of Anti thesis being hit
I don’t think this will be the issue tbh, From Operational Standpoint they are Quite Fantastic
Very True but still the Alpha is also generated in this type Micro cap with Solid Business with Great Tailwinds
Rahul Kumar’s Portfolio Review: Stock Market Investment Journey (18-11-2023)
Will you keep doing SIP in these stocks, as you earn more and have more capital?
How will you decide which stocks to put money into. Is it going to be which have dipped in the short term, but showing signs of recovery
Or is it going to be the ones who have already increased?
In case you have to add a new stock to your portfoliio, how will you decide which one to remove
Hitesh portfolio (18-11-2023)
chemicals? like aarti, srf etc?
Tara Chand Infralogistic Solutions Ltd (18-11-2023)
2023 Alpha Ideas SME Stars -Tara Chand Infralogistic Solutions Ltd
Management invited at Alpha SME ideas conference. Everyone can subscribe to Alpha ideas since they keep hosting lot of SME’s.
Hitesh portfolio (18-11-2023)
@vikrantmehta888 apologies for chipping in but have you looked at chemical sector? In my view Chem sector is out of fancy for sometime.
Hitesh portfolio (18-11-2023)
Dear hiteshbhai, I am always on the lookout for sectors who have lost all the interest of market. However, in the current bull run, all the sectors seem to be “not undervalued”. Any sectors come to your mind which are ignored at the time for whatever reasons?
Semiconductor world – CPU/GPU Wars (18-11-2023)
I would say this is a big win for samsung if true. We are not yet sure if this is for IO die or compute.
My bet is this is for the IO die which does not shrink well with nodes. Compute dies will still go to tsmc. AMD can do these things because chiplets lets them mix foundaries for the same processor.
Medium term AMD will benefit. Long term the whole industry will benefit to have more players.