Yeah makes sense, I recall one of my investment banking associates stating that Tracxn provides good value for additional or misc information.
Posts in category Value Pickr
PDS Limited – A platform for entrepreneurs (27-05-2024)
This is a very good write up on PDS.
Is there any timeline to achieve the 1000 Cr PAT that the co is targetting ?
Their PAT margins seem to be around 2%. So going by that they will need a revenue of 50K to reach a PAT of 1000 Cr. And I am talking about the overall PAT here not the one accrued to shareholders.
So unless some operational leverage plays out and their subsidiaries start contributing positively to the bottomline and push the EBITDA margins to early double digits and PAT margins to 5%, these nos seem far fetched.
Investing in FD would earn more than double of what PDS is earning if we go by their PAT margins.
Ujjivan Financial – Small Finance Bank (27-05-2024)
@hack2abi What’s your take on holding this stock considering there is no expected NIM expansion or operating leverage to play out in the near term. Credit cost base is still unfavourable for the next few quarters.
I personally see more anti-thesis than thesis in the bank post the reverse merger.
Value Picker in NYC/NJ/PA area (27-05-2024)
Link Expired Ho Gayi Hai Sir Hame Bhi Join Karana Hai
Control Print – Deserves attention? (27-05-2024)
Conclusion of latest earnings call is, management or especially shiv kabra is conservative in the cash cow which is their core business but aggressive on new verticals which they have acquired ( Vshapes, Codeology, Markprint B V). They are committing atleast 50Cr for RnD on Vshapes to reduce per sachet cost and to use recyclable materials and this business is similar to the biggie “Tetrapack”. Shiv is very pessimistic on this which is unexplored and they have 2 to 3 million euro of sales as of now, if this clicks they can do wonders but the probability is quite less according to me.
Exited fully @ 865
200 DMA broke down
Suraj Estate Developers Ltd (27-05-2024)
Seems to be a high risk - high return stock.
Real estate in the area which he operates is soon going to be supply surplus as there are many buildings coming up. And with metros coming up the demand is going to shift away from South Central area.
If they manage to build and sell before the slump comes then could make good money - but it seems unlikely.
Sanghvi Movers (27-05-2024)
Watched the interview with NDTV Profit and read the concall transcript. While one understands that mgt does not provide forward guidance, they keep alluding that EPC will contribute to 30% of topline going forward. With Rishi Sanghvi mentioning that the EPC life cycle would take approx 2 years for completion and with a minimal base of 25cr for EPC business in FY23-24 not sure how much can one extrapolate revenue from the EPC business for FY 24-25.
Assuming continuity in govt expansion plans of renewable energy, would a conservative estimate of the crane rental business of 800 cr be reasonable and maybe a 50-100cr (better to assume the lower end) from EPC for FY24-25?. With an assumption of 20% EBITDA margins from the EPC business and a 55 to 60% EBITDA margins from the existing crane business, would be best to expect a blended EBITDA of 50% approx overall on a possible topline of 850 crores. Again, without much of forward guidance on the revenue break up, order book break up and timelines for the order book to the executed, assumptions are more speculative than with a reasonable estimate.
Disclosure: invested from lower levels.
Everest Kanto Cylinders Ltd. – A long runway ahead! (27-05-2024)
and EKC managed to do quite badly again…
while competitors like Time Technoplast are doing phenomenally well - they have excess demand for composite cylinders. In one of the concalls, when a investor asked Mr. Puneet Khurana if they are looking at composite cylinders as a new product… he laughed it off - we have so much demand for our steel cylinders why should we make new products… wonder if there are any more ways in which the promoters can goof up…
Affle India – India Mobile Internet Advertising Leader (27-05-2024)
AFFLE (INDIA) LIMITED Concall Summary Date: 25 May 2024
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
During the quarter, the company witnessed robust market opportunity as advertisers steadily accelerated their digital spending resulting in a broad-based growth in their CPCU (Cost Per Converted User) business in global emerging markets and a successful turnaround in the developed markets.
During the quarter, the growth in revenue from India & Emerging markets was ~28% YoY. However, developed markets expanded by 105% YoY.
In Q4 FY24, the company witnessed a revenue growth of 15% YoY in India.
The other expenses increased by ~89% YoY & ~20% QoQ to ₹40 crore, on account of higher sales and marketing costs to support developed market growth during the quarter.
The organic growth for the company was ~18.5% YoY in Q4 FY24.
Data and inventory cost stood at ₹1,125 crore comprising 61.1% of revenue in FY24. The company is calibrating its platform to premium inventory touchpoints.
BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS
The overall market tailwind continued to be intact anchored on the accelerated consumer adoption of the digital and an enhanced organizational shift towards digitally enabled processes.
They are witnessing strong market opportunities as advertisers are consistently increasing their digital spending.
During the quarter, the company witnessed broad-based growth across verticals & geographies.
During FY24, 76% of the revenue contribution amounting to ₹1,407 crore was from direct customers.
Their strong anchoring across India and global emerging markets continued to be resilient and it contributed ~73% of the revenue in FY24.
In FY24, the CPCU model contributed 95% of revenue while the remaining 5% came from Non-CPCU.
The company has been pushing more for a CPCU-based business model to new customers as reflected in Q4 FY24 which constituted ~100% of the CPCU-based revenue.
The CPCU business revenue stood at ₹1,759 crore in FY24, a growth of 33% YoY. Converted users and average CPCU were 31.3 crore and ₹56.2, respectively.
Average CPCU grew by 10% on a YoY basis in FY24.
Conversions recorded a YoY growth of 22% during the year while the 5-year CAGR for the same was 54.5%.
UPDATES
The company filed 15 new patents, during the quarter. These patents power futuristic use cases of interaction, training, integration of Gen AI, etc.
They are calibrating carefully to ensure that it does not have any over-dependence on any specific vertical.
FUTURE OUTLOOK
The management guided the effective tax rate to gradually inch upwards from current levels of 9% in FY24.
As long as consumer trends like smartphone usage and connected TV remain intact, they expect the business to grow at 20% in the long term.
Markel Corporation – a case study to value insurance companies (27-05-2024)
Why did combined ratio suddenly jump in 1990, some M&A ?
Also, any thoughts on KNSL. It has combined ratio below 80%, could it be similar to Markei in 1980’s