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Posts in category Value Pickr
Kirloskar Oil Engines Ltd – Generating Returns from Generators (14-10-2024)
Smallcap momentum portfolio (14-10-2024)
Ohh my bad… Yes in theory, top ones should give superior returns…Picking up those is like a derby race… 
Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains! (14-10-2024)
Q2 results of sugar companies will again be muted due to low ethanol sales and high sugar stocks.
Q3 onwards the performance will jump – as both ethanol sales will be back to normal and sugar stocks will be liquidated.
However, share price could come down due to bad Q2 results and that is the time to accumulate…
Smallcap momentum portfolio (14-10-2024)
You have read it wrong. Its not Nippon small cap fund where Lumpsum is stopped. What I have given returns of is Nippon small Cap 250 index which is the universe for this thread smallcap portfolio. If we are taking out 25 momentum stocks out of total 250 stocks of index, how much performance improvement we have, is what we are discussing.
Smallcap momentum portfolio (14-10-2024)
@Mudit.Kushalvardhan One difference as compared to MFs is that the NAV of the MF will include the dividends received, while I have not accounted for it. But this might even out the transaction costs.
Smallcap momentum portfolio (14-10-2024)
@sandeep17 It is gross. I did a calculation for transaction costs couple of months back and did not see a big difference (couple of % points only). At the same time, I have not factored the dividends that are received in the pf. It might actually even out.
STCG is different and I have not accounted for it.
Smallcap momentum portfolio (14-10-2024)
@Sandeep_Mehta1 I can. I do not have a specific thread for this, maybe, I can share it here itself.
I use the same method for all universe. In the case of midcap 150 pf, it a 15 stock pf with rebalancing done on 1st and 16th of every month. There is no relaxation on worst held and stock is removed if it falls below 15.
My next rebalance is on 16th Oct. I will update the sheet and then share the link.
Ugro Capital – Opportunity To Invest in a Fintech-like Company Below Book Value (14-10-2024)
I’ve recently been studying this stock after I saw Arihant Capital aggressively push it, and am still fairly new – broadly what I understand as the right to win is that it’s an innovative tech solution backed by on-ground hands-on sales/support staff. I had some queries –
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One thing the management seems to boast of is that their default ratios (both actual and assumed) are far lower than the market. This begs the question – how does a lending company grow aggressively without sliding down the credit curve?
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There has been some talk of NPAs but I can’t readily find data on this, for e.g. in their last update. Is it normal for a lending company to not disclose this upfront?
Smallcap momentum portfolio (14-10-2024)
@Raghuvamsi_Y There are many ways of going about momentum investing.
What you have done by capturing the price changes only (over 1year or 1y + 6m or any other time frame) is basic momentum investing. This is supposed to give good returns but at the risk of higher drawdown.
People work on this basic price change and add several filters or conditions to reduce the drawdowns without compromising too much on returns. Volatility conditions are added to help in this process.
In the example you have quoted of ERIS, from 58 when we rank based on price change only, it improves to 19 when we add the volatility factor.
If you look at the construct of our sheet, there are some steps that people should be aware of.
- We start by getting the price change over 1y and 6m
- We introduce the volatility factor and calculate a value known as momentum ratio.
- We go one step beyond this. We do not directly use this value (though we could). To ensure that we compare across time frames (1year and 6m) with a level playing field, we calculate the Z score for both time frames. This captures the distribution or performance of a scrip as compared to its universe in each time frame. We then rank based on this.
There is no right or wrong here. We can choose the method that we are comfortable with.
Smallcap momentum portfolio (14-10-2024)
I think there are pros & cons with MF even if its same return.
Good thing is you don’t have to worry about taxation & transaction cost a lot (Obviously saving time is another good thing)
The not so good thing is when MF becomes bigger, these returns drop. Also when you do your own, you are learning, which “may” be useful to take a leap.
(Regarding Nippon Small Cap, I think they stopped lumpsum amount option now… Only SIP is possible… that too with minimum of 12 months if its monthly)