Likewise. Even though I am putting only 30% of my savings into equity, still I prefer to invest directly.
Will learn even if I am not able to beat Mutual fund in returns
Posts in category Value Pickr
Why not leave it to the experts? (31-10-2023)
Nice discussion.
So called experts invested via anchor to Mama earth. Would you trust them?
More than 50% MF lag behind index at least in large cap.
I have bad experience of investment via PMS.
As per me the expert is only index fund and etf. Said so am in direct equity as I like the learning process.
The HS Portfolio (31-10-2023)
So Chola i had first bought in 2020-21. And sold immediately at that time for a 10-20% gain to meet some personal expenses. Turned out it was an expensive mistake:).
The HS Portfolio (31-10-2023)
I get the point you are making. So, my MF portfolio is maybe 15% of my stock portfolio. I am planning to head towards a pf as below over next year. MF will only be in SIP basis and never lumpsum. Stock additions are also on sip basis. I know i have allocated debt on the higher side but have major expenses coming due in next 3 years and want to be sure of meeting them.
Debt: 40%
Stock: 45-55%
MF: 5-15%.
The HS Portfolio (31-10-2023)
I hold only chola Finance , but from.lower levels…I am holding from long term perspectives.
The HS Portfolio (31-10-2023)
Why I asked this question is…
If one has 5% networth in stocks and 95% networth in mutual funds, then he will have different ( higher risk taking approach) than the person who has 95% networth in stocks and 5% in mutual funds. So number of stocks in portfolio, selection of stocks , whether high growth small cap or , secular compounders, will depend a lot on how much of your overall net worth is invested in them, amd how much debt portion of the overall portfolio.
The HS Portfolio (31-10-2023)
I have a running sip in ppfas flexicap. Some debt and fixed deposits in NBFC’s and no additional real estate investments.
Graphite Electrode : Graphite India/HEG (31-10-2023)
Does anyone has a view that what the export ban of graphite electrodes y china has in store for companies like these. I am assuming positive, but these companies are working at kind of peak or good margins in last couple of years so definitely not a cyclical low here.
Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains! (31-10-2023)
What I have learnt is Cane availability for crushing comes out of acreage.
Acreage gets affected by many factors. This season is badly affected a) scanty rainfall till august b) excess rainfall in Sep (suspected will lead to lower yield and recovery) c) Red Rot disease spreading fast and wide in fields with excess rainfall flow contaminating fresh areas.
Cane crop is not a fresh plant every season. It is resprouted. So if one season turns out bad (rain or disease affected badly), it usually takes 2-3 seasons to come back even with good rainfall. SS2024-25 season is predicted to face a harsher El Nino effect (fir whatever it is worth)
Now add to these new plant coming up near a plant area – Government has to allocate some part of the cane availability to the new mills. As mentioned these are financially strong players – so they can easily lift their quota and actually try and divert more procurement their way (by way of influencing middlemen, which the stronger players always do around the financially weaker mills, I am told).
Anyone interested/invested in Dwarikesh – can do more scuttlebutt on this aspect to corroborate and/or demolish Management claims.
My reading is cane availbility for crushing will be at a Crunch in around factories which have more of these problems than those who face these to a much lesser extent (mentioned in above posts). Good to question in Analyst Calls coming up soon 
How it pans out we will get more clarity by Mid Nov, and established by End Nov.
Hitesh portfolio (31-10-2023)
Froth in any stock will lead to parabolic moves. These take the form of moves ranging from 50-100% within a few weeks. These kind of rallies are often followed by sharp corrections, or prolonged sideways movements. Sideways movements post parabolic moves are often seen in stocks which hold promise of good future earnings.
But what I have usually seen is that post parabolic moves, most of the upsides are captured, and hence it might make sense to atleast book partial if not full profits. ( there will be exceptions to this too, where post parabolic moves also upsides can materialise)
You can see examples of parabolic moves in stocks like HBL, Som distilleries, Zen tech, etc. One indication with these moves is that the weekly and monthly RSI are well above 80, usually approaching 90, and sometimes cross 90 also. Chances of getting parabolic moves are higher once weekly and monthly RSI cross 70, and trend on the upside. ( this is contrary to conventional wisdom, where very high (above 70) RSI is an indicator of overbought state of affairs) .