I am using 24/11/2023 for 6 months @visuarchie Can tell his
Posts in category Value Pickr
Smallcap momentum portfolio (25-05-2024)
Please provide a date for 6 months and 1 year I got one from another thread on 26/05/2023.
Pharma || Hospitals || Diagnostics : Industry perspective (25-05-2024)
JB Chemicals and Pharma -
Q4 and FY 24 results and concall highlights -
Q4 financial outcomes -
Revenues - 862 vs 762 cr ( up 13 pc )
Gross profit @ 561 cr, Gross margins up 130 bps to 65.2 pc
EBITDA - 198 vs 164 cr ( up 16 pc, margins @ 24.4 vs 23.8 pc )
PAT - 126 vs 88 cr ( up 43 pc )
Breakdown of revenues -
Domestic formulations - 465 cr, ( up 22 pc - including the acquired opthal portfolio. Organic India growth @ 13 pc )
International formulations - 267 cr, up 4 pc
( lower growth in international business as the company has made a strategic choice to De-Focus on their South African tender business )
CMO ( of Lozenges for global companies ) - 109 cr
( CMO business 100 cr / qtr milestone for the first time )
APIs - 21 cr
Domestic : International sales breakup for Q4 @ 54 : 46
FY 24 financial outcomes -
Revenues- 3484 vs 3149 cr
EBITDA- 897 vs 696 cr ( margins @ 27 vs 24.4 pc )
PAT- 553 vs 410 cr ( up 25 pc )
Gross Debt on 31 Mar @ 357 vs 548 cr
Cash and Cash equivalents @ 464 vs 282 cr
( basically, the company is now net cash positive by 107 cr )
Capex for FY 24 stood @ 135 cr, due expansion of lozenges facility at Daman
Company had acquired 15 Ophthalmology brands from Novartis for 964 cr in Dec 23
JB Chemicals is now ranked 22nd in IPM
Company’s major brands and their annual sales -
Cilacar franchise - 600 cr +
Metrogyl franchise - 300 cr +
Sporolac franchise - 120 cr +
Rantac franchise - 400 cr +
Nicardia franchise - 200 cr +
Azmarda - 70 cr +
MR productivity @ Rs 7 lakh / MR / month
Company is now ranked No 8 in the cardiac mkt and is the fastest growing company in this segment
Company is guiding for an EBITDA margin band of 26-28 pc for FY 25 ( vs earlier guidance of 25-27 pc band )
CMO business should grow at > 13-15 pc for FY 25. Have recently commercialised Immunity booster lozenges in FY 24. Should commercialise Melatonin based Lozenges in FY 25
Brand - Razel ( generic name - rosuvastatin, acquired from Glenmark Pharma in 2022 ) is also growing at 20 pc plus rates
Company believes that the Ophthalmic brands acquired from Novartis were previously under invested and under leveraged. Company has increased the MR count for the Opthal portfolio from 75 to 105
For India business, company is guiding for mid to high teen growth in FY 25 ( including the Opthal portfolio )
For international business ( minus CDMO, company is guiding for 9-10 pc growth )
Company is open to both in-licensing and acquisitions of brands to further improve growth rates ( since the company is again net cash positive )
New organic launches contributed to 3 pc of sales in FY 24. Same should continue in FY 25 as well
Expect the Opthal business to clock revenues of 180-200 cr for FY 25
Acute business in FY 24 was subdued. Expect this to mean revert in FY 25
Company doesn’t face any Chinese CMO competition for their Lozenges business - that’s an added advantage
Taking a lot of initiatives to improve the operating matrices of the Russia + CIS business. Hopeful of seeing tangible improvements going forward
Other expenses in Q4 were higher due increased logistics cost due Red Sea issues and the Novartis brands - integration related costs
Aim to take the CDMO business to 800 cr/yr kind of annual run rate in 3-5 yrs
Disc : looking to add on dips as current valuations may be on the higher side, not SEBI registered, biased, not a buy/sell recommendation
Cochin Shipyard – No more Cheap (25-05-2024)
Hardik
I agree the PSU’s were not so good in execution & the financial performance used to be lumpy and order book used to be poor.and therefore always used to carry a low P/E even though they used give a very good dividend yield of 8-10%. However , things seem to be changing under Modi Govt.
Not only Most PSU’s have healthy order book , but potential order in pipeline seems to be strong , thanks to Atma nirbhar Bharat and the worsening geo political situations.
In many PSU’s , there were changes in management and post that the quantum and quality of execution are improving quarter after quarter. For example for cochin shipyards
Shri Sreejith K Narayanan assumed charge as the Director (Operations) sometimes in mid 2022. From a net profit of 47 crore in March quarter of 2023 , Look at net profit figures of last 4 quarters of 2024 sequentially …109, 191, 248, 265…and market has liked this sequential growth and yoy growth.
If the market seems to have Re-rated the stock from 10 P/e TTM in April 2023 to 61P/e TTM now… it is not without a reason. similar valuation logic is also applicable for HAL, BEL, Bharat dynamic , BEML, Midhani and so on. In fact ,there are a dozen of pvt sector Defence stocks are trading still much higher than the defence PSU’s.
If you ask me if it can maintain the same growth or appreciation in stock price, it may be or may not be. there are many if’s though
If the order book soars further ( if india has to counter Chinese Navy ) and these companies expand capacities and there is continuance of Govt policy, and the companies are able to give these kind of market beating returns, the stock price may further rise…
However , if there is a policy break down with a different govt in power and govt shifts its focus from defence , then perhaps there many be a de-,rating of the stocks.
Having said that these kind of companies may or may not be able to give qoq sequential growth…cochin shipyards may be an exception .But we need to see yoy growth because ship building takes longer lead time .
As far as valuation is concerned, it is subjective. our views may vary from each other. At each price for every seller , there is a buyer and vice versa.No one is wrong here - every one does its own analysis before putting his money
only market and time could give us a lesson.
Ranvir’s Portfolio (25-05-2024)
JB Chemicals and Pharma -
Q4 and FY 24 results and concall highlights -
Q4 financial outcomes -
Revenues - 862 vs 762 cr ( up 13 pc )
Gross profit @ 561 cr, Gross margins up 130 bps to 65.2 pc
EBITDA - 198 vs 164 cr ( up 16 pc, margins @ 24.4 vs 23.8 pc )
PAT - 126 vs 88 cr ( up 43 pc )
Breakdown of revenues -
Domestic formulations - 465 cr, ( up 22 pc - including the acquired opthal portfolio. Organic India growth @ 13 pc )
International formulations - 267 cr, up 4 pc
( lower growth in international business as the company has made a strategic choice to De-Focus on their South African tender business )
CMO ( of Lozenges for global companies ) - 109 cr
( CMO business 100 cr / qtr milestone for the first time )
APIs - 21 cr
Domestic : International sales breakup for Q4 @ 54 : 46
FY 24 financial outcomes -
Revenues- 3484 vs 3149 cr
EBITDA- 897 vs 696 cr ( margins @ 27 vs 24.4 pc )
PAT- 553 vs 410 cr ( up 25 pc )
Gross Debt on 31 Mar @ 357 vs 548 cr
Cash and Cash equivalents @ 464 vs 282 cr
( basically, the company is now net cash positive by 107 cr )
Capex for FY 24 stood @ 135 cr, due expansion of lozenges facility at Daman
Company had acquired 15 Ophthalmology brands from Novartis for 964 cr in Dec 23
JB Chemicals is now ranked 22nd in IPM
Company’s major brands and their annual sales -
Cilacar franchise - 600 cr +
Metrogyl franchise - 300 cr +
Sporolac franchise - 120 cr +
Rantac franchise - 400 cr +
Nicardia franchise - 200 cr +
Azmarda - 70 cr +
MR productivity @ Rs 7 lakh / MR / month
Company is now ranked No 8 in the cardiac mkt and is the fastest growing company in this segment
Company is guiding for an EBITDA margin band of 26-28 pc for FY 25 ( vs earlier guidance of 25-27 pc band )
CMO business should grow at > 13-15 pc for FY 25. Have recently commercialised Immunity booster lozenges in FY 24. Should commercialise Melatonin based Lozenges in FY 25
Brand - Razel ( generic name - rosuvastatin, acquired from Glenmark Pharma in 2022 ) is also growing at 20 pc plus rates
Company believes that the Ophthalmic brands acquired from Novartis were previously under invested and under leveraged. Company has increased the MR count for the Opthal portfolio from 75 to 105
For India business, company is guiding for mid to high teen growth in FY 25 ( including the Opthal portfolio )
For international business ( minus CDMO, company is guiding for 9-10 pc growth )
Company is open to both in-licensing and acquisitions of brands to further improve growth rates ( since the company is again net cash positive )
New organic launches contributed to 3 pc of sales in FY 24. Same should continue in FY 25 as well
Expect the Opthal business to clock revenues of 180-200 cr for FY 25
Acute business in FY 24 was subdued. Expect this to mean revert in FY 25
Company doesn’t face any Chinese CMO competition for their Lozenges business - that’s an added advantage
Taking a lot of initiatives to improve the operating matrices of the Russia + CIS business. Hopeful of seeing tangible improvements going forward
Other expenses in Q4 were higher due increased logistics cost due Red Sea issues and the Novartis brands - integration related costs
Aim to take the CDMO business to 800 cr/yr kind of annual run rate in 3-5 yrs
Disc : looking to add on dips as current valuations may be on the higher side, not SEBI registered, biased, not a buy/sell recommendation
Smallcap momentum portfolio (25-05-2024)
I have also made changes for INOX WIND @visuarchie, I was also a bit shocked why it’s not in top 25. Can you also check once?
Smallcap momentum portfolio (25-05-2024)
I have made changes for INOXWIND.
Microcap momentum portfolio (25-05-2024)
There is only one difference in mine. Instead of “MOIL” I have “TVSHLTD”
Smallcap momentum portfolio (25-05-2024)
@Anand_Jain please recheck. I don’t think you have made the changes for INOXWIND.
Smallcap momentum portfolio (25-05-2024)
@stuti_agarwal please see my previous message. INOXWIND went ex-bonus last week, 3:1. You have to divide all previous stock prices by 4. Please recheck.