Hello Sir,

If you don’t mine sharing source, reports and some more details on “Medical Devices Sector as a whole.” Also, if you can share your view on how is the outlook for Medical Devices based on what you have researched so far.

Would be very helpful. I am trying to do sector research on same.

Regards,
Mukul

Hello Folks,

I think Q2FY25 is an inflection point for CSTL. The base business volumes are picking up, HALS sales starts to kick-in and monthly run rate is already achieved of 125MT. (On top few other HALS series will start its full swing going forward). From here on, CFCL will enjoy operating leverage and base business will be stable.

Although EBITDA % wise will fall due to HALS ramp-up, but absolute EBITDA will start contributing with meaningful growth.

While no comment on valuation (I feel they are slightly higher), anyone thinks we can take a short-term bet based on “Technicals + Fundamental”.

Views appreciated,
Regards.

Disc: No Holdings.

Usually in Nov or Dec.
Every year the ministry calculates OMC ethanol price for each input (C-Heavy, B-Heavy, juice) based on both input FRP & prevailing sugar price based on loss.

Last year they artificially inflated C-Heavy ethanol price (and others were low) to “discourage” ethanol diversion.
Since no-limit ethanol diversion has been announced this year hopefully OMC prices will be normalized.

Maybe days of sugar mills’ ethanol expansion are over, unless crop acreage/yields increase dramatically to crush high volumes consistently year over year. They learnt a bitter lesson last year.

Okay, so let me try and explain what I am looking at. There are 3 things:

1. GTV by NPST (NPST reports this in every concall)
2. EVOK revenue (Total Revenue x EVOK revenue %)
3. Cosmos Bank Payee PSP Volume data (from NPCI website)

As can be seen from above, on QoQ basis, EVOK revenue growth is very similar to the growth of the total GTV. However, both EVOK revenue growth and GTV growth, seem to not have a similar correlation with the Cosmos Bank Payee PSP volume data. For eg, in latest quarter, Cosmos Payee PSP volume grew by 197%, but the total GTV grew by 43%. Now, how can that be? 1 reason I see is that it might not be 1-to-1 correlated. In fact, in Sept 2023, a 35% QoQ fall was seen in the Cosmos Payee PSP data, but EVOK revenues grew by 14%.

I am not trying to make any conclusions from a derived metric (like 0.27% and 0.47% like you have mentioned) and just sticking to the numbers that have been clearly stated by NPST or NPCI website.

They have to follow more stringent regulatory controls than earlier as now the can use public money and deal with them directly.
RBI can impose paneity or restriction on their activity if they don’t follow norms!