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Posts in category Value Pickr
Edelweiss Financial Services (24-09-2023)
https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/a410fc2f-e1a3-4885-8a89-477d951f6bb1.pdf
The annual report of Nuvama clearly states that the paid-up capital of the co is Rs 430 Cr (43, 04,54,000 shares of Rs 10 each). Thus the share price on listing should be around 200
Glenmark Life Sciences (24-09-2023)
Just a thought.
If Nirma takes debt to fund this acquisition, can they immediately de-list the share after 1 year?
Means how such financial transactions work?
Xpro India – getting bigger? (24-09-2023)
Oh, Thank you very much
Xpro India – getting bigger? (24-09-2023)
The fall in promoter holding is a result of extra shares issued via preferential issue. ( warrants converted to equity shares)
Xpro India – getting bigger? (24-09-2023)
Why did promoter sold 6% last quarter?
Hindware Home Innovation Ltd on to rapid growth post demerger? (24-09-2023)
Read few concalls post COVID, my view on business and management –
- Management’s guidance is not to be relied upon. In mid FY22, they were saying 1.5-2x market growth which then came down to 1.5x by end of the year and then now it is 1.2-1.5x given variations in consumer sentiments. While I know that consumer durables sector has been under pressure overall but I would like to see them remain consistent and conservative throughout.
- They guided for 20% growth in consumer appliances business with 7-8% EBIT margins in Q4FY22 but it seems nowhere close as of now. They are struggling to do topline growth atm. Anyway this segment is pretty crowded so I doubt this can drive much of the value for the business.
- I doubt that overall growth will be sustained at 18-20% CAGR over 3-5 year period without consumer appliances taking off. As of now my expectations are capped at 15% with something less than that won’t be surprising as well. Most of this would be driven by bath and pipes business.
- Margins could go up to 11-12% by FY25 given the acquisition and softening of RM costs.
- Deleveraging could start in next 12 months reducing interest costs and giving boost to PAT further.
Overall, given my apprehension on management’s focus and capital allocation I would wait for some margin of safety to make any buy decision. My calculations suggest 5000-6000 Cr MCap is likely in 2 years.
Plus, my learnings of past few years say that always bet on market leader in consumer categories. So I am slightly biased as well.
The Anti-Portfolio (24-09-2023)
Not really, but did check the thread here on value pickr after your post. A lot of disbelief about a rank outsider enjoying phenomenal success. Hence, not really interested, still under consideration though.
Delta Corp – A huge but risky opportunity (24-09-2023)
Will love to accumulate this stock if gets hammered, I think the tax demand is ridiculous, this is probably the worst that could possibly happen to the company and if they survive this they will probably have the experience of a management who has dealt with the worst regulations, a fully speculative investment if it gets hammered will probably take the gamble.
State Bank of India – Banker to every Indian? (24-09-2023)
Why there is no talk about SBI even though it is available at single digit P/E and just posted highest profit in the county?