Liked your Elliott waves, it’s very good for learning. Most of the stocks must be in wave V now !

Hi all,

Recently I came across a YouTube video by Shankar Nath. He is SVP in ET Money and regularly posts the content on Investment, stock market, mutual funds etc. In this video, he is explaining the concept of fragility which is inspired by a series of blogs written by Mr. Vinnakota on his website called – Budget Tiger. Here is the link for his blog:

First Pillar of Investing – Avoid investing in Fragile companies – Introducing the Fragility Score Card: Financial Statement Analysis made easy (budgetiger.in)

How to Identify Fundamentally STRONG Stocks using the FRAGILITY Scorecard | Stock Selection Strategy

Basically, in the above video and in the blog above, concept of fragility is discussed and explained. Idea is to screen out fragile companies, over-valued and debt -ridden companies and companies where management has fragile mindset.

We all know that today’s world is very dynamic and extremely connected, thanks to Internet and plethora of information available on fingertips for investors. An unfavorable report in the US for an Indian company can severely impact the stock prices of that Indian company in our market here and vice versa. While we cannot avoid immediate extreme shocks to the company’s stock price by such unfavorable incidents but more often than not, the stock will recover in short to medium term if its more robust than fragile.

Mr. Vinnakota in his blog is contemplating four ways to determine if the company is fragile or robust:

1. Equity as % of total liabilities – higher the ratio, more robust the company is as its less dependent on the debt financing.

2. Breakeven sales as part of actual sales – lower the ratio, more robust the company. This ratio reveals the proportion of sales required to cover fixed and variable costs.

3. ROIC / ROCE – no brainer, higher the better

4. Cash flow from operations as a multiple of yearly debt obligations and replacement capex – higher the better. This ratio measures a company’s ability to generate sufficient cash flow to meet its debt obligations and cover interest and depreciation expenses.

Though, Mr. Vinnakota explains in his blog about filtering the stocks on percentile basis approach, I have tried to calculate the Fragility Scorecard in a different way. For each of the 4 metrics above, I have given a score of 1 if some thresholds are crossed. These thresholds are taken as values for 80th percentile in his blog.

Higher the score, the more robust the company is.

This Excel is the furtherance of the amazing work done by Mr. Amol on his forum:

FREE Excel Template for Screener.in – ValuePickr Forum

Now, let’s see the fragility scorecards for two companies (one extremely robust as per this framework and one extremely fragile):

1. Bharti Airtel
   Bharti Airtel.xlsx (376.1 KB)

It has score of 0 which means extremely fragile company. Any bad news or incident can jolt it badly.

2. Andhra Paper
   Andhra Paper.xlsx (375.8 KB)

Total score of 4 which means it’s very robust as per this framework.

Please note the caveats and disclaimer:

1. I have not invested in these companies, and these are not sell / buy recommendations.
2. I have just replicated this framework as per Mr. Vinnakota’s blog and Shankar’s YT video.
3. Results could be dynamic in nature and may change next year.

Spencer’s Retail is a huge disappointment. It is a case of the promoters & the management running aground a hugely successful model and brand. Spencer’s have shut down all outlets in Chennai too. The promoters’ priorities are only towards their new venture – IPLT20 – LSG.

Chennai is the original home of Spencer’s Retail, the old Spencer’s from the British rule to the pioneering modern retail format launched in late-1990’s in Chennai. Spencer’s have exited very old, high footfall & iconic outlets in Chennai. All of the outlets are upscale marquee locations and retail spaces that any retailer would die to have.

There has been a significant decline in qualitative & quantitative metrics around their business & business performance over the last few years since the listing of Spencer’s Retail, especially Gross & EBITDA margins, decline in same store growth sales. The management frequent narratives around the shift to high margin, non-food business merchandise over the last few years has not moved a needle and there has only been an erosion of margins and shareholder’s wealth since listing.

It is a sad state of affairs that a pioneer in modern retail format in India & an iconic brand is being run to the ground. The promoters could have sold off the retail business or at least a part of the retail business to derive some value

Thankyou for sharing very crisp data… Great work!!!

I believe that our country is gearing for a boom in the logistics’ sector. The present boom in the railway sector would eventually pave the way for the logistics’ sector on the whole. The Indian logistics sector is way far behind China. We primarily depend upon roadways for most of our logistics’ needs. This is expensive as most of the trucks work on the fossil fuels. Railways is by far the cheapest mode of travel, and hence it it essential to focus on this first.

Which services form the part of the logistics’ sector, directly and indirectly?

1. Railways – Goods train
2. Shipping – transportation through the waterways
3. Warehousing – Storing the goods
4. Infrastructure – Development of infra for logistics
5. Ports – for arrival and departure of the goods
6. IT – Tracking system, improving efficiency
7. Electric Vehicles – especially the trucks and multi-axle vehicles

Please share your thoughts if you agree/disagree with this.