(topic deleted by author)
Posts in category Value Pickr
Laurus Labs – Can Business Transform to Next Level? (15-09-2023)
Thanks for the discussion. And apologies for a poorly structured post to unwittingly take this thread in a different direction. That was not my intention. Rather, the post was for us to debunk the narrative / rationale put down by brokerage than blindly following (or being against) them. This allows us to cover any blind spot in our investment thesis.
Like for example what I wanted to ask was this:
- Do we believe that there is a downside risk for Synthesis sales for FY25?
- How do we compare Syngene with Laurus when we are investing our money?
- How did the previous brokerage comment of cessation of Paxlovid and lower ARV realisation pan out? Is this risk still valid now?
Disc: Invested and slowly accumulating
Delta Corp – A huge but risky opportunity (15-09-2023)
But the examples of cigarettes, gold and multiplexes are not the same as gambling, as cigarettes, gold and multiplexes are available to all, but not every state has casinos, and gambling facilities, legal ones, so the loss of revenue in the form of taxes to the governments will be very less compared to tobacco, alcohol or petrol.
Looks like it is still a wait and watch for now, from the looks of price and volume.
National Peroxide (14-09-2023)
Can you please give a link for this? WPI data suggests very muted prices in domestic market until August.
National Peroxide (14-09-2023)
Hydrogen peroxide prices have gone up around 150% over last three months
Astec Lifesciences (14-09-2023)
→ Overall: Intent of proudly manufacturing Agrochem in India for the world. FY23 stats:
- Revenue: Export: 61% & Domestic: 39% | Enterprise: 74% & Contract Mfg.(CDMO): 26%
- Industry expected to grow at a CAGR of 8-10% by 2025.
- Leadership position in triazole fungicides
- CDMO strategy took 5~7 Yrs. to implement- Reguatory Approval, R&D Center etc.
- 4 Mfg. Plants @ Mahad, MH | R&D Center – In Rabale, MH (commissioned in April 2023)
- Expenditure on R&D: Capital – 68 Cr. Vs 16 Cr. [FY22]
- Permanent Employees: 551 & WORKERS: 200
- Number of Shareholders: 18,097. No. of Equity Shares: 1.99 Cr. | Promoter Holding: 66.76 %.
- Key Products: Enterprise & Contract Mfg.(CDMO)
→ Enterprise product: Over-reliance on few of the enterprise products. Strategies: Maintain cost position and broaden the portfolio (fungicides + herbicide). New product development launch in FY24. - Feb 09, 2023: demand headwinds [high inventories with customers due to poor kharif season in the domestic market] & pricing erosion [China’s excess supplies & lower internal demand]
- May 15, 2023: Tebuconazole– price decline 69% [Muted demand in China and overcapacity situation]. Price pressure will continue in FY24. Propiconazole– price decline 44% [inventory pileup & erratic weather condition] | Demand-Supply balanced and should recover with season
- August 10, 2023: Few more months to achieve normalcy
→ Contract Mfg.(CDMO): In long run, this business shall be bigger than enterprise business and will help to attain sustainable revenue and margins. - Revenue 84 Cr., 162 Cr., ~320Cr.(E), and ~550 Cr.(E) in FY22, FY23, FY24 and FY25 respectively
- After steady state (i.e., FY 25 onwards), revenue CAGR of 20~25%
- Within 6 months of R&D center, hand full with several projects
→ Capex: 2nd herbicide facility [INR 120 – 130 crores] to be commercialized by Dec 23 & multipurpose plant – Capex [500Cr.] for CDMO to be finalized by Dec 2023 and commissioned by ~Dec 24.
→ Concerns: Unfavorable and erratic weather patterns | Unavailability of raw materials | Foreign currency volatility and interest rates | Contingent liabilities: ~ 200 Cr.
→ Valuation Snapshot:
Sources: FY23 AR, Agrovet’s Conference Calls of Q3 and Q4FY23, Q1FY24
Disc: No position
Suven Life Sciences – A Zero Or One Company! (14-09-2023)
Its phase 2 results for samelisant which is used to treat narcolepsy, associated with sleep cycle. The medicine has less side effects compared to pitolisant and oxybates, which are currently the preferred method for treating narcolepsy. The question on efficacy remains, which will be disclosed post phase 2 trials. The most interesting part is, in narcolepsy, there is an opportunity for out licensing post phase 2 trials, as was seen in the case of sumitomo pharma’s drug for narcolepsy. In such arrangements, the company licensing it pays an amount upfront, for conclusion of phase 3 trials plus there is also a royalty associated. Opportunity size is huge, as narcolepsy drugs is a billion dollar market, and suven lifesciences market cap is just 1000cr. However, everything depends on phase 2 trial results, which is expected anytime between September- October.
Disclosure: Invested and biased.
SWELECT ENERGY SYSTEMS LTD – some information from Annual report (14-09-2023)
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As per AGM 2023 guidance, company is expecting 50-60% capacity utilisation… so I am expecting between 550 -750 Cr. topline from new plant.
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Attached is their financial summary of last 4 years ( from their AGM 2022 presentation ). Their EBIDTA margins were between 20-30% in last 4 years.
FY 23 consol Ebidta was 20% ( 408.68 Cr. Revenue – 82 Cr. Ebidta , As per AGM data 2023 data )
I would suggest you to go through their last 2 year’s of their AGM video for more details about this company . It is available on youtube. Management has given very good info in it.
Disc: Invested and added more in last 2 months. Not a recommendation…
Zoom webinar on stage investing (14-09-2023)
Please add me to the list..sbhadti@yahoo.com
Stocks featured in most of your portfolio (14-09-2023)
Is there a way to create something like a poll, The question is to vote for multiple entries:
A list of NIFTY 500 or so is presented to pick from.
Everyone votes for an equity stock if that is in his/her portfolio.
Is this possible?
Like check if this stock is in your portfolio:
[ ] 360 ONE WAM Ltd.
[ ] 3M India Ltd.
[ ] ABB India Ltd.
[ ] ACC Ltd.
.
.
.
.
[ ] Wipro Ltd.
[ ] Yes Bank Ltd.
[ ] ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Ltd.
[ ] Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd.
[ ] Zensar Technolgies Ltd.
[ ] Zomato Ltd.
[ ] Zydus Lifesciences Ltd.
[ ] Zydus Wellness Ltd.
If such a thread already exists, please let me know.