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Posts in category Value Pickr
NCC: Extremely undervalued (13-09-2023)
NCC will source meters, set up the required infrastructure including installation of the meters, operate them for the mentioned number of years and handover to discoms, while getting paid by them all along (I don’t know much about how this will be funded, the monthly or annual revenue & margins for this project)
Genus will also do the above but they won’t buy meters as they produce it themselves and hence may have slightly better margins. Additionally, they will also supply such advance meters for pure EPC companies like NCC, GMR Infra etc
KRBL- The King of Basmati rice (13-09-2023)
I got 45% of my shares accepted for buyback. Offered all 245 shares I had and 111 of them got accepted.
Silicon Rental Solutions- good but not great (13-09-2023)
can anyone please help me clear a basic doubt,
Suppose silicon has 1 computer of 30k with 3 years of life and a straight line depreciation with 0 residual value. So every year in silicon books 10k is a cost + employee expense and operating expense. Lets say total cost is 13k now if I give this computer on rent then silicon should be charging more than 13k to be profitable???
if they are charging 13k then why is they person who is renting paying more when he can simply purchase the asset and depreciate at 10k??
now counter to this is the buyer might be differing high fixed cost and on that deferred cash flow he is generating returns which is more than the premium to depreciation which he is paying.
again then another doubt comes up if the buyer had purchased the asset then in accounting he would depreciate in 3yrs so residual value would go to zero but he can still sell the computer and make money which would be profit, so the I dont save much even with differing cost and paying rent from buyer perspective.
it comes down to the point that why is the buyer renting when buying would have lower dep hence renting is reducing the buyer P&L.
please if somebody can explain
Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals (13-09-2023)
Crude might top out by end of September
Have you made any analysis between crude and nifty?
Is there any correlation even if you offset rise or fall or crude by 1 month, 2 months
I don’t see any correlation
Markets are correlated to liquidity at global level so you see all risk assets rising and falling at almost the same time
Dhanuka agritech (13-09-2023)
Dhanuka Agri Q1 concall, latest management interview highlights –
Revenues- 369 vs 392 cr
Gross Margins @ 32.8 vs 32.7 pc
EBITDA- 44 vs 51 cr, margins @ 11.8 vs 13.1 pc
PAT- 33 vs 49 cr
Q2 is their biggest Qtr
Q1 was affected by delayed monsoon till Mid June
Demand scenario and product off take in July was good
Aug again was subdued due deficient rains but first 10 days of Sep have been buoyant (source: latest management interview on 13 Sep)
New products launched –
Implode – Maize herbicide
Mesotrax – Maize, Sugarcane herbicide
Defend – Rice Insecticide
To start commercial production from Dahej plant (company is making Technicals or AIs here) in Q2
Initially going to produce – Lamba Cyhalothrin and Bifenthin (both – pyrethroid class insecticides)
Revenue Mix in Q1-
Insecticides-27 pc
Fungicides-10 pc
Herbicides-54 pc
Others-9 pc
Herbicides have structural tailwinds as the cost of manual labour is increasing
Company guiding for 150-200 bps improvement in EBITDA margins for entire FY 24 with double digit topline growth
Besides the new Dahej Plant (for Technicals), company largely makes formulations only
Have a distribution network of 41 warehouses, 6500 distributors, 80000 retailers
Sells to aprox 1 cr farmers
Has international collaboration with 10 global MNCs to source products, technology
Has set up a new R&D centre in Haryana for faster development of products
Did a buyback of 85 cr LY and distributed Rs 2/share as dividend
Has introduced 06 new biologic formulation in India in Q1
Intend to export technicals from Dahej plant after meeting the captive demand
Indian agrochemical can potentially be a great growth story going forward (India has already overtaken US, Europe in Exports. Is only behind China now)
Inventory at Q1 end – 395 cr. Working capital days – 152
Channel inventory eased out in July after a build up in June
Rising agri commodity prices in Q2 is another positive for the Industry
Expect 50 cr revenues from the new Dahej facility in FY 24. The double digit topline growth guidance does not include this
Q1’s volume de-growth was 3.5 pc
The product off take in July was robust
Expect Dahej plant’s revenues to go upto 100 cr by end of FY 25
Prices of Chinese technicals seeing a gradual rise in Q2 ( company procures from both China and India )
Disc : have a tracking position
Ranvir’s Portfolio (13-09-2023)
Dhanuka Agri Q1 concall, latest management interview highlights –
Revenues- 369 vs 392 cr
Gross Margins @ 32.8 vs 32.7 pc
EBITDA- 44 vs 51 cr, margins @ 11.8 vs 13.1 pc
PAT- 33 vs 49 cr
Q2 is their biggest Qtr
Q1 was affected by delayed monsoon till Mid June
Demand scenario and product off take in July was good
Aug again was subdued due deficient rains but first 10 days of Sep have been buoyant (source: latest management interview on 13 Sep)
New products launched –
Implode – Maize herbicide
Mesotrax – Maize, Sugarcane herbicide
Defend – Rice Insecticide
To start commercial production from Dahej plant (company is making Technicals or AIs here) in Q2
Initially going to produce – Lamba Cyhalothrin and Bifenthin (both – pyrethroid class insecticides)
Revenue Mix in Q1-
Insecticides-27 pc
Fungicides-10 pc
Herbicides-54 pc
Others-9 pc
Herbicides have structural tailwinds as the cost of manual labour is increasing
Company guiding for 150-200 bps improvement in EBITDA margins for entire FY 24 with double digit topline growth
Besides the new Dahej Plant (for Technicals), company largely makes formulations only
Have a distribution network of 41 warehouses, 6500 distributors, 80000 retailers
Sells to aprox 1 cr farmers
Has international collaboration with 10 global MNCs to source products, technology
Has set up a new R&D centre in Haryana for faster development of products
Did a buyback of 85 cr LY and distributed Rs 2/share as dividend
Has introduced 06 new biologic formulation in India in Q1
Intend to export technicals from Dahej plant after meeting the captive demand
Indian agrochemical can potentially be a great growth story going forward (India has already overtaken US, Europe in Exports. Is only behind China now)
Inventory at Q1 end – 395 cr. Working capital days – 152
Channel inventory eased out in July after a build up in June
Rising agri commodity prices in Q2 is another positive for the Industry
Expect 50 cr revenues from the new Dahej facility in FY 24. The double digit topline growth guidance does not include this
Q1’s volume de-growth was 3.5 pc
The product off take in July was robust
Expect Dahej plant’s revenues to go upto 100 cr by end of FY 25
Prices of Chinese technicals seeing a gradual rise in Q2 ( company procures from both China and India )
Disc : have a tracking position
Natco Pharma: Focusing On Complex Products (13-09-2023)
Sentiment is not hit as seems like a normal pay for delay lawsuit that Natco is named in and they still don’t sell Pomalyst in the US market. Glenmark had a similar lawsuit and took 10 years to get settled and no action only a settlement was passed. Doesnot seem like major impact on fundamentals. Promoter selling timing does seem to be dubious.