@LarryWink Here is my quick take on the way markets move. 1) 80% of the time market is on an upwards trend while 20% of the time the market is on a downwards trend. 2) Percentage fall/day in bear market is about 3x times that of Percentage rise/day in bull market. 3) On an average the market returns are around 13-14% p.a. for the Indian stock market. There could be divergence to these rules in the short term but in longer term things will converge around these rules.
Using these three rules you can see if there has been a divergence from these rules in recent times. Triangulate using your assumptions to estimate if you see market as going up or down.
I won’t comment on individual stocks that you hold but like the fact that you follow the dictum “buy on dips”.
Posts in category Value Pickr
SmallCap Hunter : Trying to find the dark horses with triggers (13-09-2023)
AA – Abhishek’s Attic (place to store stuff to clear my head)! (13-09-2023)
Could you please elaborate this point since I have been waiting for the markets to correct for quite some time 
NCC: Extremely undervalued (13-09-2023)
Wanting to enter the stock what are the good levels where I can add this to my Portfolio?
PDS Limited – A platform for entrepreneurs (13-09-2023)
There has been a lot of interest in the HBS case study. I’ve uploaded it to this link:
NCC: Extremely undervalued (13-09-2023)
My knowledge is limited to what I have read about the RDSS scheme and the latest investor presentation from Genus Power Infra (Slides 30 to 35)
Commodity and Cyclical Plays (13-09-2023)
The 3 companies ,I’m tracking all do concalls and out of which i feel kiri is the most that can be trusted and have said they will be doing a buyback hopefully by this year.If it happens i will increase my holdings in the dye sector or wait for market to correct again before adding.
Laurus Labs – Can Business Transform to Next Level? (13-09-2023)
Sell call from Kotak Institutional Equities. Didn’t have time to dig into. But, sharing for info and discussion.
The brokerage believes Laurus Labs is confronting troubles with regard to antiretroviral (ARV) pricing as well as looming cessation of Paxlovid sales. Ex-Paxlovid, the company reported ~19% EBITDA margin in 1HFY23. Furtherrnore, even as volumes pick up, Laurus’ ARV realization will stay under pressure, as it bids for winner-takes-all tenders and lower long-term tender prices, added the brokerage. The brokerage’s revised FY2024E EPS is 34% lower than the Street estimates.
SmallCap Hunter : Trying to find the dark horses with triggers (13-09-2023)
@StonePitbull @ajayt001 @Nickp
Thank you for taking time to respond and for kind words.
I would like to hope that it is a minor blip.Based on my reading so far and level of knowledge i have , i subscribe to ” we are in bull market” trend.
“Bhaav Ketlo/Kya chhe ?” ( what is the number in terms of valuation) …I wish could learn it someday…since i am unable to ascertain and put valuation across each stock in my PF…ill try to describe what transpired.
I bought few more names i like, Today PF is +1% so far, at the start it was +0.5%
In my PF
These came out quickly and running again.
TRIL +8%, HBLPOWER +7%, IZMO-BE +5%, J&KBANK +3%, GENESYS +2%, ELIN +2%, NBCC +1%, EQUITASBNK +1%, UGROCAP +1%, NEWGEN +1%, HUDCO +1%, GSFC +1%
These are still being beaten.
AVALON -4%, IDFCFIRSTB -3%, JSWENERGY -2%, SYRMA -2%, NIKHILAD -2%, BCCFUBA -2%, VBL -1%, MUTHTFN -1%
( i’d like to think that my PF has nice names, if u’ve an opinion which says i’d rethink on nicety of any of above i’d love to hear the opinions)
Dreamfolks services limited( DFS) (13-09-2023)
Basis my analysis, I don’t find anything wrong in the business fundamentals of this company. This business is certainly a volume game – higher the sales higher is the accrual to the bottom line.
If one considers the three main stakeholders of the business/ecosystem, it is the lounge operators who incur the maximum expenditure in terms of capex. For this ecosystem to survive and make meaningful gains for all parties, some amount of flexibility/cooperation shown by the player with the least capex is actually good in the long run. The current price level gives good opportunity to make an entry.
P.S. This is not a buy/sell recommendation but my opinion on the company/business.