Broader profit booking in the market.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Usha Martin- Coming out of Chaos (13-09-2023)
No. I am not following that very keenly.
Usha Martin- Coming out of Chaos (13-09-2023)
Is this in response to my comment Raj?
Im not sure.
If it is, then the period says 7th and 8th September, I was speaking about 12th, yesterday.
I hope I understood the “Period” section here i.e. transaction date.
Usha Martin- Coming out of Chaos (13-09-2023)
This here is in addition and continuation to my doubts on the company valuation above. Anyone who isnt familiar to my doibts can give the last few replies a quick reading.
In short, i asked on what logical grounds does such a valuation for Usha Martin makes sense. The Valuations Growth exceeds the EPS growth. Exact numbers shared above.
Now, coming to today or 12the September movement. The whole market being down led us to corrections in almost every name. I am sure everyone’s noticed.
But heres the thing, At one point during the day Usha Martin opened at 371 and the lowest it went was about 301. This is about a 17% Correction in valuations.
Not 2 or 3 or 5%, there was a reason for investors to think, at a moment, that it should be valued 17% less, and this happened on a daily time frame, not a week not a month.
So, are these valuations that many names defended when i raised my doubts, they do not seem to be as solid or should i say, not what market participants think to be. Market participant that can move the valuations like they did yesterday.
It can recover, but my point is not about recovery but simply, how fragile are the valuations that it made sense that the company should be valued at 17% Less, and it happening on a Days duration adds to the concern.
I am not invested, but I would like to be. The future COULD be good. But thats the future, we should be sure whether where we stand in terms of valuations is a sure footing or not to even start thinking of future growth.
Future looked good for individuals in Dreamfolks, but the valuations did not make sense.
Also, the nature of the forum and opinions should add to caution cause even the ones defending can divest during such corrections without the need to share the update on the forum OR simply sharing the update days or weeks later.
My doubt is about company valuations, i believe them to be too good, and seeing the near 17% Correction, which stopped at just 4%, yesterday adds to my concerns.
Companies dont just correct 17%. This happening for even a duration of few minutes should make us all aware.
I suggest every participant here, especially the ones who are looking to enter the company to Please Be Careful.
Great day.
Dynemic Products – a relatively undervalued chemical stock! (13-09-2023)
a) Food colour production was 3992 MT(FY23) vs 3610 MT (FY22)
b) Around 50% of DI capacity is for sale rest is for backward integration/captive use. Hence, the 1488 MT number is more external volume and not total DI production in FY23.
As per management, all plant stabilization issues are behind them and currently only constrained by demand. Some green shoots are visible, so utilization will improve with demand.
Atul Auto Limited (13-09-2023)
In which state this auto company have strong presence
SmallCap Hunter : Trying to find the dark horses with triggers (13-09-2023)
Everyone would have an opinion and no one can really say for sure.
My opinion is that this is just a minor blip/ profit booking in a structurally strong bull market.
I won’t call it a reversal of trend unless market goes below previous high of 18900.
I believe there will be some more blips like this but the ultimate destination Nifty is headed to is atleast 24000 in 2024. I have arrived at this approximate number using both fundamental and technical indicators in valuing Nifty. And this rising tide will take all stocks up along with it.
In fact, our portfolios will be much higher by this Diwali in Nov than where we are today!
Rajesh’s portfolio (13-09-2023)
https://twitter.com/Rajesh_FC/status/1701605661774397872?t=slUiYB9ZWaOLjHS81W3Sjw&s=19
I have benefited especially in cleaning up through this forum and finding out nuances so sharing my portfolio and philosophy both.
आ नो भद्राः क्रतवो यन्तु विश्वतः May auspicious thoughts come to us from all over the world – Rig Veda
Cleaned up many laggards in the last quarter and will continue to water the flowers and cut the weeds. What better day to write this today when most of companies in portfolio ended in deep red.
Key points– Temperament for concentration and to bear fluctuations or drawdown of 50% or more also calmly when conviction is there, Foresight to identify small to nanocap with long run ahead, Patience from min 5 year to decades to forever also (beyond my life)
Process of building perspective on investment will continue life long. Investment was gift from covid and what a blunder to start so late in mid 40s but better late than never.
Education – reading annual reports, analysts reports, investor presentation, mega trend, pod casts, youtube videos, management commentary forums such as valuepickr. Reading / listening to more than 1000 hours of wisdom of Buffet, Munger, Mohish Pabrai, Vijay Kedia and many more , last but not the least late Big bull indomitable, unfiltered and inimitable Rakesh Jhujhunwala. I learnt from him that investment portfolio and trading portfolio can be separate. Exposure of a few whom I admire on twitter or superstar investors’ pick as bulk deal or above 1% is known publicly. There are many who don’t know that they don’t know as Buffet said vividly. Some have strong opinions or may be incentive driven to earn anyhow, so we have to be very choosy also whom we interact with. Sharing a few examples – Brightcom or BCG- there was concerted push by many and when I looked at linkedin just saw 100 odd employees that too in countries which are hardly known to be talent hub, how can I company with around billion dollar revenue have 100 odd employees. Does the business even exist? Another one after acquisition of Tejas by Tatas and later management guidance that they are aiming for top 5 telecom OEMs in the world still many influencers goading to book profit on 30 to 50% gain or quick to jump on poor quarterly results. Mostly great investments take many years or even decades of conviction. Investing is probabilistic but all we need are a few big winners as Peter Lynch says. Good governance and sustained earning growth are vital for creating value and yet very few companies are able to pull it off. Making mistakes and learning from them will continue lifelong too.
Portfolio-
Long term 75% of portfolio – As long as thesis remains intact (holding since 3 years KPIT, Tejas & Optimums) others are Max India, RIR, Frog cellsat, Kore digital, Cosmic CRF, Ecoreco, SEML, Timescan, Affordable robotic, Insolation energy, Aurangabad distilleries, Reliance Industries
Second high risk not more than 10% of Portfolio to review by Dec 23 and if hypothesis is wrong then exit – Coffee day, Sonalisconsumer,
Review by next Sept 15% of portfolio and if hypothesis is right then move to long term – Waa solar, Silicon rental, Patel Engineering, Kamat hotels, Bondada, Hazoor, SPML infra, Ind swift, Mercury EV
DYODD (do your own due diligence)
NCC: Extremely undervalued (12-09-2023)
everything was down, bhai