I think Macros are very important but i agree markets can see them clearer than we can. Markets, in fact, are good tool for predicting macro outcomes.
Markets didn’t pay attention to the 2021 Covid 2nd wave. That was pretty accurate even if that wave was most devastating.
If we look at exuberance in sectors such as EMS, defence, renewables, CG etc, all this is coming from macros indeed, an expectation for India to do well there, a fresh start somewhere, a newly found confidence. This is definitely not about earning growth but ensuring a seat in the bus as early as possible.
EMS churns out IPO after IPO, only to tell us that even promoters, much like investors, indulge in the same exuberance which stems from opportunity put forth by macros.
Also, the champions who advocated focussing on earning growth and not macros, came from a super-confident economy of 70s-80s, a utopia of the sorts, safely tucked away across pacific with nothing that can harm that economy, overtly, beyond a point. I wonder if things are the same for rest of the world.
& price paid. 