The Company has signed a License Agreement for a 48-room property in Mashobra, Shimla, Himachal Pradesh under the Company’s brand “Lemon Tree Hotel”.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals (07-09-2023)
Smallcap 100, Weekly – We have had a steep runup since March with 6th continuous month of serious gains. The trigger that caused this runup was cheap Russian crude, strong Rupee, easing inflation and relatively benign macro. Some of it at least might be changing just as we near crucial resistance in the smallcap indices – usd-inr breaching 83 (not a big problem of a runaway decline since we have good reserves and can defend), crude breaching 90 and russia crude imports declining in Aug, as Russia has cut production. So most of what to me were good positives when market seemed to be bottoming last week of March are now reversing and that too right post a frenzied runup in everything.
I think its better to be cautious with fresh entries and not run after sub-par bets – either lacking in quality of business or in risk:reward in terms of valuation. The only good valuation bets either lack a good earnings trigger and the ones that have good earnings trigger are fully priced in. This is not an easy market for great gains. I feel its better to unwind bets and not go down the quality curve in new bets (which is what I feel has happened with some of my picks lately).
The other signs in terms of fresh issues, block deals, SME market, microcap focused funds, all indicate we are getting too greedy. That doesn’t mean we reverse anytime soon though. When market topped out in Oct ’21, it took several months before actual decline started in Jan ’22. Everytime it retests tops, it can make you feel like a fool, so a strong bull market like we have had is not going to reverse overnight I feel. Any sign of liquidity vanishing and market depth shrinking will be a good indicator (I see market leverage is already at an ATH)
I intend to hold PML since its more a purely fundamental bet for me but wind down some of my other bets which are fairly valued or appear topping out/exhausted.
Disc: Writing helps me gain clarity and is not advice
Mirza International – consistent performer but undervalues at present? (07-09-2023)
Created a new thread dedicatedly for Redtape – Redtape ltd. – The next fashion giant?
Please share your valuable thoughts and keep us all informed.
Requesting @sahil_vi @RajeevJ and others to re-post your latest updates.
Aurion Pro : Yet another IP product company? (07-09-2023)
AurionPro call on acquistion today:
- It’s 140Cr non cach transation. The company has around 200 employees
- No cash going out from AurionPro as it’s covered using receivables from Trejjara
- It gives opportunities for more cross selling opportunities and adds some insurance based customers
- The revenue opportunity is a mix of both recurring SaaS and license based offering
- The incremental revenue can be from selling more modules to the same client and increaing the price
- There will be no outstanding dues from Trejjara after the transaction
My take: It seeems more like cleaning up the balance sheet from their old mess and it’s favourable to the shareholders
Redtape ltd. – The next fashion giant? (07-09-2023)
India’s trusted leading Fashion and lifestyle brand with over 390+ opulent stores across PAN India. RedTape is known for emerging as one of the Finest Brands of Footwear and Clothing for Men, Women, and Kids. It has become a complete Family Fashion Destination by providing the Best International Styles and World-Class Quality through Shoes, Apparel, and Accessories for all age groups.
The company sells in over 37 Countries and 6 Continents. It is listed among the top Footwear Brands striding ahead of the market. The brand has gained a strong foothold in the niche markets of India, the UK, the US, Australia, Turkey, UAE, France, Germany, West Asia South Africa, and others.
It was demerged from Mirza International in 2023.
| Narration | Jan-00 | Jan-00 | Jan-00 | Jan-00 | Jan-00 | Jan-00 | Jan-00 | Jan-00 | Mar-22 | Mar-23 | Trailing | Best Case | Worst Case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 303.22 | 1,468.31 | 1,078.16 | 7,110.13 | 5,611.02 |
| Expenses | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 255.75 | 1,223.96 | 884.63 | 5,833.86 | 4,686.73 |
| Operating Profit | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 47.47 | 244.35 | 193.53 | 1,276.27 | 924.29 |
| Other Income | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | -0.25 | 6.65 | 4.75 | – | – |
| Depreciation | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.43 | 44.44 | 36.56 | 36.56 | 36.56 |
| Interest | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3.99 | 17.46 | 15.01 | 15.01 | 15.01 |
| Profit before tax | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 40.80 | 189.10 | 146.71 | 1,224.70 | 872.72 |
| Tax | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 11.76 | 46.95 | 37.36 | 25% | 25% |
| Net profit | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 29.04 | 142.15 | 109.36 | 912.83 | 650.48 |
| EPS | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5,808.00 | 10.29 | 7.91 | 66.05 | 47.07 |
| Price to earning | 52.95 | 52.95 | 52.95 | ||||||||||
| Price | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 419.00 | 3,497.39 | 2,492.24 |
| RATIOS: | |||||||||||||
| Dividend Payout | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |||
| OPM | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 15.66% | 16.64% | 17.95% | ||
| TRENDS: | 10 YEARS | 7 YEARS | 5 YEARS | 3 YEARS | RECENT | BEST | WORST | ||||||
| Sales Growth | 384.24% | 384.24% | 384.24% | ||||||||||
| OPM | 16.47% | 16.47% | 16.47% | 16.47% | 17.95% | 17.95% | 16.47% | ||||||
| Price to Earning | 52.95 | 52.95 | 52.95 | 52.95 | 52.95 | 52.95 | 52.95 | ||||||
| Source – Screener |
Risks/threats –
Economic and political factors, both national and global, that are beyond control, and factors of force majeure, may directly affect the performance of the Company as well as the Footwear industry. These factors include interest rates and their impact on the availability of retail space, rate of economic growth, fiscal and monetary policies of governments, inflation, deflation, consumer credit availability, consumer debt levels, tax rates and policies, unemployment trends, terrorist threats and activities, worldwide military and domestic disturbances and conflicts, pandemics, and other
matters that influence consumer confidence and spending.
Disclosure – Invested
Cochin Shipyard – No more Cheap (07-09-2023)
Latest Interview of MD of cochin shipyard
Smooth Sail For Cochin Shipyard’s Orderbook Growth – BQ Prime Smooth Sail For Cochin Shipyard’s Orderbook Growth
discl: Invested and hence biased . Not a buy or sell recommendation
Edelweiss Financial Services (07-09-2023)
So the stocks have been alloted for Nuvama but the price discovery would happen on the day of listing.
Force Motors – racing ahead! (07-09-2023)
Hi Mohit, will you be attending the AGM?
Phantom Digital Effects Limited (07-09-2023)
@Venky_Thiriveedhi I appreciate your thought process. But we have to understand that we are investors. We are still not going to run the show. We have to pay a price for the stock and whenever you purchase a stock you want it at best possible price where you can get high conviction that the stock is to be bought at a particular price from where our returns will be alpha. In order to have that mindset you will have to take worst case scenario and value the company. What you are building in is a best case scenario. That is the reason I am assuming this money is gone down the drain.