In my opinion, the right question to ask is why was this necessary and is this likely to be a one-off? In all the euphoria around the stock and storification of the business and its prospects; we as investors ignored the clear risks to the business model. If you strip out everything, this business effectively provides unsecured financing to one of the riskiest segments in the country (albeit at a high margin): film production; which are known to have delays, production risks, marketing risks, etc! In my opinion, receivables issues are likely to be a feature of the business model as long as the clientele includes mainly Indian and regional film producers. Just for reference; the amount “invested” in the production of this film is 33% of the company’s total networth! Doing VFX work for internationally reputable clients like Disney, Netflix, Amazon Prime, etc is very important, and one of the main differentiation factors will be share of business that comes via them rather than from local move producers.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Phantom Digital Effects Limited (06-09-2023)
In my opinion, the right question to ask is why was this necessary and is this likely to be a one-off? In all the euphoria around the stock and storification of the business and its prospects; we as investors ignored the clear risks to the business model. If you strip out everything, this business effectively provides unsecured financing to one of the riskiest segments in the country (albeit at a high margin): film production; which are known to have delays, production risks, marketing risks, etc! In my opinion, receivables issues are likely to be a feature of the business model as long as the clientele includes mainly Indian and regional film producers. Just for reference; the amount “invested” in the production of this film is 33% of the company’s total networth! Doing VFX work for internationally reputable clients like Disney, Netflix, Amazon Prime, etc is very important, and one of the main differentiation factors will be share of business that comes via them rather than from local move producers.
Embassy REIT: Is this “Blackstone” promoted REIT is real diamond? (06-09-2023)
But isn’t Brrokfield a professional asset management company globally and not a builder.
Embassy REIT: Is this “Blackstone” promoted REIT is real diamond? (06-09-2023)
But isn’t Brrokfield a professional asset management company globally and not a builder.
COSMIC CRF LIMITED – sme (06-09-2023)
The Company was incorporated on December 21, 2021 as ‘Cosmic CRF Limited’, a public limited company under the Companies Act, 2013. . Subsequently, the Company executed a business transfer agreement with Cosmic Ferro Alloys Limited on January 19, 2022 (NCLT company), Company acquired the CRF unit of Cosmic Ferro AlloysLimited.
Cosmic Ferro Alloys was their family business – which had gone to NCLT in 2018.
The purchase included a manufacturing unit in West Bengal spread over an area of approximately 3.82 acres together with plant, machineries, assets and liabilities, . The unit manufactures a range of cold rolled stainless sections,such as fabricated items for railway, coach & wagons, cold rolled formed items for wagons and coaches, cold rolled formed items for infra companies and EPC projects and products for roadways and national highway.
Current Capacity – 18000 MTPA
Proposed expansion (as per RHP) – 18000 MTPA
As of March 31, 2023, the total order book value of our Company was ₹ 53,640.82 lakhs, out of which orders amounting to ₹ 13,566.33 lakhs have been executed and orders amounting to ₹ 40,074.48 lakhs are ongoing. – As mentioned in RHP
Latest-
Press release on 05th July,2023- Order received from Titagarh Wagons woth 25 crs(to be completed in 4 months)
Total order in hand as on 05/07/2023- 380 crs.
Clientele-
Titagarh Wagons Limited, Hindusthan Engineering & Industries Limited, Melbrow Engineering Works Private Limited, Jindal Rail Infrastructure Limited, Allied Construction Engineers & Fabricators, Railways
Visit their website to know about their products.
https://cosmiccrf.com/
Read
Cosmic-CRF-Limited_RHP.pdf (5.2 MB)
We got the oppurtunity of meeting the management, Mr. Aditya Vikram Birla, and these are the key points noted-
- Their family has been int he railways business for the past 70 years.
- Their largest customer is Titagarh Wagons and mostly all orders related to CRF is fulfilled by Cosmic.
- Capacity has been expanded from 18k to 22k MTPA with a very little capex of 80 Lakhs.
- Confident of achieving 90% capacity utilization in FY24 (Current Capacity – 50%- FY 23)
- They have back to back arrangement for RM, so their EBITDA is mostly fixed
- they have a price variation clause
- They also directly suppy to the Railways.
- Daily 20-25 cr orders are given out by the Government
- Government has more than 100 workshops in which they do refurbishment
- Every 4-5 years wagons go through refurbishment
- In Railways, there are only 7 RDSO approved supplier of CRF
- There are 21 types of wagons and Cosmic is the only company which can cater to CRF components of all the 21 types of wagons.
- Expected revenue for FY 24- around 230-250 cr
FY 25 – around 300-350 cr - They are also looking for further capex oppurtunity and there is a company takeover from NCLT in pipeline.
Financials-
The company started its operations in FY 2023 and that too not for full year.
Risks –
- Very High Client concentration – Top 5 clients – approx 95% of Revenue.
- The NCLT company from which the company has taken over the CRF unit was the promoter’s father company.
- The promoter is estimating FY 24 revenue double of FY 23. (September results will give us a clearer picture)
Prince Pipes & Fittings Ltd (06-09-2023)
Does anyone have any explanation for the lack of a technical head/ CTO?
Phantom Digital Effects Limited (06-09-2023)
Vman ji…As an investor, I was trying to assess the risk reward of this investment…Whether PhantomFX will be able to recover this 17 Crs investment partially or fully or more than that …
I had presented some points on why the movie probably might do well…and I might be right or wrong on each of these points…like for example 4000-5000 VFX shots doesn’t guarantee a hit like we saw it from Adipurush, Brahmastra kind of movies but our expectation is always to the likes of Avatar, Dune or any VFX heavy Hollywood movie… similarly AR Rehman music could be a let down…or it could be totally other reason which none of us as thought about
As an Investor, we need to get into the shoes of Promoters…what we would have done if you are running the show and got into this situation…and see if this step makes sense to you or it’s too risky … its also not that whatever I think will happen as is
If you have different views, please share it for the benefit of all investors
Annapurna Swadisht Ltd – A Swadisht FMCG investment? (06-09-2023)
Did anyone attended AGM yesterday ? If someone can share the notes/key highlights that would be great.
Steel Strips Wheels Limited – Attractive Valuations (06-09-2023)
Have reduced pledge further (link):
On 05.09.2023,2500000 equity shares were released from pledge. Accordingly, now the total number of equity shares pledged has reduced to 4795000 which is 3.06% of total paid up capital of the company and 4.92 % of total promoter shareholding.
Tarun