Has anyone done competitive analysis of soda ash manufacturers (listed companies) in India? Kindly share detail here

Thanks for highlighting the overall approach of Reverse DCF.
(considering the context here is Valuation primarily)

I understand the tool is from Tijori Finance

The Earnings of FY 23 has been subdued considering the Global Macro’s and Retailers reducing the inventory.
Anyways, given the Acquisition, the future earnings would be benchmarked post Merger (including Atraco no’s)
Currently, that would increase the Earnings by around 30-35%

Coming to the other variables.

1. Discount Rate of 20%

2. Terminal Multiple – While historic reference usually would be a good measure, there are multiple reasons for Rerating of the Sector as well as the Company.

3. Implied growth rate over ‘x’ period No of Yrs before assigning a Terminal Multiple – how long the company grows at above the terminal growth rate.
   Eg. FTAs provided Bangladesh with a long runway to grow above average.

4. Once these are through, we get the Implied growth.
   The management (who has been quite conservative so far in their guidance) has benchmarks of 20%

Considering the specific situation on each of the factors, (play of the Art & Science of Valuation) – looks like this would be interesting to explore in more Depth.

Disc: Invested & Biased.

Abosultely agreed. I could not put this thread down. Just like a movie, there are many ups and downs in the business narrative and numbers. There is mystery about whether there are corporate governance issues, whether margins will sustain, etc. All credit to Valuepickr and the members for bringing out such variety of well thought arguments.

Due to all the moving parts and multiple possible outcomes, this business is a perfect example of a quote from Mr. Buffett: “a business is should be viewed as an unfolding movie, not a still photograph”!

In layman’s terms – they are seeking permission to cut the pizza which currently has 4 slices such that it will have 6 slices. How and when the new 2 slices will be shared isn’t mentioned in that clause. Once permission is received from shareholders, the company can use it to raise cash by way of QIP, Pref allotment, rights issue etc. These new slices (shares) will not be given out for free to existing shareholders (Bonus issue) as this resolution most likely has been brought to enhance the strength of the Balance Sheet by raising equity investment so that they can deliver the Orderbook and also improve their Credit Rating