After spending many years in the market, I continue to get amazed by this realization that how narratives get created to support price action. Investors, who were going GaGa when the stock price was hovering around 720, suddenly turn pessimistic/negative when stock price falls to 520. In this case, no negative news have come out except promoters selling 10% for the first time in last 10+ years. It seems as if they have done some fraud by selling the shares in they company have started and continue to own more than 50% post this share sale.
For long term investors having conviction, this is a golden opportunity to add to the current position (that’s what I am doing) and enjoy fruits of this counter intuitive exercise in the years to come.
Discl – invested for last 2 years and continue to add more
Posts in category Value Pickr
Shivalik Bimetal Controls Ltd (SBCL) (23-08-2023)
StageInvesting +Elliot Waves (23-08-2023)
Dear Readers
Important Announcement
We plan to have a free Zoom Session on September end for sharing all our learning of technical -analysis.
Our purpose of being on this platform is to spread learning. Form day one , we are sharing our knowledge of technical analysis on this platform. But written text has its own limitations. Hence we have come out with Zoom seminar idea.
Keep in consideration that we don’t sell any services .
This is our way to pay back to the society and a little contribution to create awareness among the investors of our country.
Would decide whether we would have one session or series of sessions.
If you’re interested , please drop a message in reply here ( no private message please).
If we find good number of serious investors , we would go ahead with this idea. Otherwise we would drop it.
Regards,
InterGlobe Aviation – Indigo (23-08-2023)
#MOAGIC: We Are The Fastest Growing Startup Airline In Aviation: Akasa Air | CNBC TV18
17 new airports coming through
5% Market share with akasa
Marksans Pharma- Can it be the next Pharma Biggie? (23-08-2023)
Final approval from the US Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) for its Abbreviated New Drug Application (“ANDA”) for Guaifenesin Extended-Release Tablets, 600 mg and 1200 mg (OTC).
Guaifenesin extended-release tablets help to loosen phlegm (mucus) and thin bronchial secretions to rid the bronchial passageways of bothersome mucus and make coughs more productive.
Disc: Invested. No Recommendation.
StageInvesting +Elliot Waves (23-08-2023)
There are many other finer nuances that one learns by experience ,by experimenting and by making mistakes.
Try to keep a journal of RSI, RS number (on daily, weekly,monthly timeframes) and any othe rindicators , moving averages ( that you prefer) whenever you enter a stock and keep checking on what worked best …find the common traits among all successful entries…those common traits would be your set-up.
Keep in consideration that even the best set-ups fail during balck-swan and in an unfavorable markets. So keep a stop loss level for every investment.
Hitesh portfolio (23-08-2023)
IKIO lightings ltd makes Interesting case study !! If anyone tracking this company kindly share your findings it will be much appreciated.
Compañy recently came up with its sucessful ipo listing and held its maiden earnings call and here are the highlights
- Company primarily operates in the ODM ( Original Design Manufacturer) mainly LED
- Company has a B2B model and are not looking to go into B2C model
- The growth trajectory has been good in the last 5-6 years as the SKUs have grown from 200 to 1000+, the company was heavily dependent on imports but has become backward integrated and export numbers have also grown over the years
- Company has 3 business verticals
︎LED products
︎Commercial refrigeration
︎ Others ( usb chargers, mcb switches, rotary switches, ips containers, drivers) - Company has 4 well integrated manufacturing facilities. 3 in Noida and 1 in Haridwar. The total area of these facilities is ~ 3,00,000 sq feet
- Conpany has repaid 50cr of debt from the ipo proceeds and the consolidated gross debt now stands at 48cr as of June 2023, other items in ipo prospectus include investment in new facility and general corporate purposes, both are in-progress
- CAPEX – Company is building a 5,00,000 sq feet project into three blocks where Block 1 is almost in final stages of completion and is expected to commence operations by end of this FY. Overall completion of all three blocks is expected in next 2 years. Total capex required for the entire project is 212cr. The asset turns expected around 5x with more than 60% plant utilization. The capex is primarily funded by ipo proceeds.
- Company has given good 1st quarter result
Total income 36.19cr
Ebitda 237 million Rs
Ebitda margins 21.7%
PAT 138 million
PAT margins 12.7% - Downsides
︎Small cap company so competition from existing industry giants a threat
︎ Company’s 50% sales are to Signify (Philips) so major dependence on one client
︎ Delay / divergence from capex plans will dent the future prospects
Disc – Recently added to my portfolio (2%) so may be biased
OT – Job Opening – Equity/Bond Research Analyst (2-5 yrs) (23-08-2023)
I am looking to expand the research team at intelsense.in
At Intelsense, we are focused on three different styles of investing- long-term, technofunda and quantitative investing for a diverse range of clients in India and across the world.
The best-fit candidate would be:
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Passion for equities and equity analysis is the primary criterion.
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Honest, hard-working and ready to learn. As we are a small team, a good person to work with is the most important criterion.
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Able to analyse businesses, do deep-dive into company financial statements and perform valuations.
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Able to interact with company management /investor relations to understand the company strategy.
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Conduct primary research (e.g. channel checks, dealer interactions, exploring expert networks etc)
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Ability to explain thoughts clearly through writing and excellent written and verbal English communication skills
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Possessing strong analytical skills and a good understanding of finance and accounting concepts.
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Excellent with MS Excel, preferably with VBA macro writing skills.
Educational Qualification: CA/CFA/MBA Finance/Masters in Commerce or Economics.
Anyone interested should apply with the following:
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Brief CV
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Written research report on any listed company in India or any Indian sector. Reports should be in pdf format only and in the English language. Any blog post or social media publication showing proof of work is important.
Please send your details to hr@intelsense.in.
NOTE: DO NOT just only send your CV. The research report or proof-of-work is the primary criterion for shortlisting.
We will revert back to the shortlisted candidates only.
StageInvesting +Elliot Waves (23-08-2023)
WOW…Thank you for your patience and dedication in simplifying this for me. It’s an incredible skill to be able to bridge the gap between complex concepts and simple understanding
StageInvesting +Elliot Waves (23-08-2023)
Well…there are few things that one can track …
a) Which sectors are in favor – one can tack sectoral indexes. For example , Power, Infra, Railways, PSU, PSU banks , MidCap IT ,Water pipes are the leaders of current rally …most the economy facing sectors. You can make watchlist of all the sectors and see which are moving up , at a speed.
Once you identify a trending sector, then you have to find a good stock based on the following ( apart from having strong fundamnetals)
b) Relative strentgth of the stock-price vs Index – for Mid Cap company ,one can use Mid Cap index. See whether your stock is moving faster than the index ( above 0 line) .For Nifty 50 company, one can put Nifty 50 in relative strength index.
c) RSI – Ideally one should prefer a stock where RSI is above 60 on all the time frames.
Hope this helps.
Here is a chart for a PSU company…where we have shown all the mentioned indicators so that the readers can understand the concept very well…
Hope this is helpful.