Mayur Uniquoters: Breaking out from a 9 years of consolidation. Mark Minervini classic VCP pattern is formed.
On fundamental side, management Q1 commentary is very bullish and company is guiding for 20% cagr for FY24 to FY26 with margin improvement.
AR23 notes
Customers:
Revenue breakup:
Miscellaneous
Subsidiary financials
Industry
Disclosure: same as before
I don’t follow Abbott India so not much idea about fundamentals of the company. In absence of any significant earnings growth, if stock price manages to go up, its mainly due to bull markets and as you said, rising tide lifting all boats. However a move from 18k to 23k in percentage terms is hardly 30% which in the context of current bull market is not a big move.
I don’t follow Abbott India so not much idea about fundamentals of the company. In absence of any significant earnings growth, if stock price manages to go up, its mainly due to bull markets and as you said, rising tide lifting all boats. However a move from 18k to 23k in percentage terms is hardly 30% which in the context of current bull market is not a big move.
Several employees including KMP are converting ESOPs into equity shares.
When several employees and Key Managerial Personnel (KMPs) of a company are converting their Employee Stock Option Plans (ESOPs) to equity shares, it generally indicates:
Confidence in the Company: Employees and KMPs may believe in the company’s growth and long-term success.
Alignment with Shareholders: Converting ESOPs aligns the interests of employees with other shareholders, fostering commitment to the company’s goals.
Positive Market Signal: This conversion can be seen as an endorsement of the company’s strategy and prospects, sending a positive signal to investors.
HDFC bank added 1482 branches from June 2022 to june 2023.
In the same period
SBI added 140 branches
Kotak 86
Axis 186
ICICI 540
INDUSIND 320 & IDFC F 173
INDUSTRY : my views are same as yours.however, this perception wrt industry can also provide low price points wrt value to enter the company.
Company : I am putting my trust in management when they say their superior margins are due to technical and specialised products, and, management comes across as frugal as anybody can get and operationally exceptional in sweating the assets.
Management : Agree to some of the points. They come across as conservative, content and satisfied with the size of business (and wealth, controlling stake just above 50% to fend off any possible attack) they have built. I believe there was a mention somewhere Promoter stated he wants to live a simple life and dividend income is sufficient enough to take care of his expenses. I do not think this (their mindset) qualifies as survival mode, rather just the very opposite. In the recent AGMs they have stated cash on books is for growth (organic or inorganic) purpose but only when they probability of success is very high.
I do not think this is a high flyer, but if you check their FCF generation, return metrics (post adjusting for additional inventory and cash they are carrying, additional inventory liquidated during favourable times and cash hopefully utilised for growth purpose – no timeline) and 10-15% long term CAGR earnings (and FCF) growth whenever it happens, this can be decent addition. Of course based on personal investment targets and time-horizons. Other key parameters: what will be utilisation of additional FCF generated, if any. Test for your temperament. Price points you enter at.
Disclosure: Invested. I have small position wrt PF, will add to it using favourable part of cycle, or, Growth capex announcement as a trigger (off course depending on the price available at that point of time). Enjoying average dividend yield and sitting on cash(in company’s balance sheet, not mine) till then, or, may be my patience will run out.
Garware Hi-Tech Films, Monthly – Looks all set to take out highs made in ’21.
Fundamentally, this is a different business from the one that existed pre FY18 or so. The contribution from speciality films (Sun control in automotive and architectural, Paint protection and Shrink films) has increased consistently and as of Q1 is at 83%.
Market is still valuing this like it is a commodity packaging film manufacturer while a large portion now is speciality, margins are much higher at ~17% even in low cycle for the commodity business
There is significant growth prospects in the PPF segment with a total revenue contribution upto 400-450 Cr per year on full utilisation. As of current quarter, there is guidance for this line to be fully utilised from a utilisation of just 50% in FY23. So we can probably expect 100 Cr from PPF in Q2 which is phenomenal
The company is also making a foray into B2C segment for its PPF films opening Garware Application Studios. Increasing awareness for the product and vfm pricing could help them do in PPF what they have done in sunfilms in the past in the Indian market
They are not however fully backward integrated for PPF like they are with SPF and seem to be buying certain things like self-healing films from XPEL.
Company aims for a 2000-2500 Cr topline with its installed capacity. I think there could be significant operating leverage and any turn in commodity business could add to the EBITDA margins and I believe it can go up above 20% when utilisation is full and cycle is in favour, earning an EBITDA of about 400-500 Cr in the next couple of years, which would be a double of earnings from current levels. There is also plan to sell Nashik land which could bring in 80-90 Cr.
I also believe this company can rerate considerably, considering its just at 14x P/E. The 15-20% earnings growth, coupled with an expansion of P/E to a 20-25x levels can probably make this a 3x from here
Risks:
In today’s call again this issue came up (50 Cr this year). Management says this is for some dyeing process that only two companies in the world do and this charge is lower than market rate. They will consider merging the company in the future perhaps
Disc: Invested from 1000 levels
Valid points…needs to convey to management…hope they improvise…they have created a great enterprise but they lack proper communication to the exchange…eventually, market forces will determine where margin settles but you should be transparent enough…ROE 60.2% n ROCE 76.9% has no meaning unless you are clean on the floor…must have learned the lesson after seeing the carnage on the exchange…we can hope only…
I entered it a few months back and it is already 2x. Watched interview of management – 1000 crore top line in 4 years.