Re-posting this here as this is the main thread for P.E Analytics
Business: Data and Analytics in real estate Industry.
PROPEQUITY_13052024185901_Final_TranscriptIntimation.pdf (nseindia.com)
Re-posting this here as this is the main thread for P.E Analytics
Business: Data and Analytics in real estate Industry.
PROPEQUITY_13052024185901_Final_TranscriptIntimation.pdf (nseindia.com)
I could not go back 10 years but took a look at 5 years and here is the comparison of HDFC Midcap Opps Direct Growth vs Direct growth TOP fund of the midcap cat fund in that year…
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
HDFC Midcap Opps Direct Growth | 22.58 | 40.88 | 13.09 | 45.45 | 13.2 |
PGIM, PGIM, Quant, Nippon, Quant | 51.13 | 66.92 | 19.94 | 49.76 | 26.3 |
Difference | 28.55 | 26.04 | 6.85 | 4.31 | 13.1 |
Over 5 years, this works to 15% difference on an average. There will be taxes, when you switch like this but assuming that anyway you will pay taxes, even if one exits from HDFC fund eventually (and the difference can be at best 5% between LTCG vs STCG)…My quick conclusion - the difference between top fund and HDFC fund is not much, in years, when the entire category does not perform. In years, where there is outlier out-performance, the difference is much more stark…
I think Sanghvi movers investor concall was not well planned, the message passed was wrongly interpreted by most.
The positives I picked up in call is
The company which will grow minimum at 25/30%+ is available at Cash Pat multiple of 14 in this bullish market
@First_Principles Very nicely captured .
I maintain my stance that the PAT of Sanghvi movers is logically and legally as per rules deflated (aggressive depreciation )
•The right way to see the valuation is Cash PAT multiple and not PE multiple .
•Even in Cash Pat Multiple the Valuation is deflated as assets are depreciation in circa 5 years or so whereas assets have life of 25/30/35/40 years .Recently they sold a crane of 1962 !!
•Hence better to calculate the life time value of these assets (2490 Cr is Gross Block ) which has huge earnings capacity !
First way (my way –crude approach) :
1.The future value of 2,490cr with a 15% annual yield (they now get 24% )over 25 years is approximately 81,574 cr
2.Present value of ₹81,574 crore after 25 years with an annual inflation rate of 6% is approximately ₹18,998 crore.
Second way (traditional way –DCF approach):
•Discounted cash flow (DCF) of an investment of 2,490 Cr with a 15% per annum discount rate over 25 years and a terminal value growth rate of 2% is approximately 17,386 Cr
Current market cap is only 5300 cr .
What can go wrong – Have taken yield at 15% which is 15/24 =63% capacity utilisation .Though currently for last 3 years its at an average of 80%+ it can be much lower than my assumption for longer period of time .Hence I can be completely wrong .
Will calculate this years (24-25) financials and share on Monday .
The bank has guided for a best ever Q4.
In this quarter, 2 trends are being seen:
Results across mid caps are inconsistent. Q4 was good but Q3 was not-so-good and vice versa. Predicting the quarterly numbers hasn’t been that straightforward.
Markets hv their own assumptions in driving stock prices.
While ujjivan PPOP was 25% higher, PAT growth was weak although it met management guidance of record profit. NNPA surprisingly disappointed.
To me the numbers are below impressive, but let’s see what market does.
There are some groups which do this pump and dump in legal way. The sop is that they will buy a shell company at a very low price. Then they will increase their shareholding in it by way of preferential shares. Then they will tell a story related to the current hot industry. The business may or may not be genuine. Some financial improvement in sales and profit will happen. When the retail is convinced regarding the story and the price has been increased to astronomical levels, the promoter will dump significant shares in market. Then they will buy another shell company and repeat the cycle.
Example
Wardwizard innovation > Wardwizard food
Praveg > Jhaveri Credits & Capital Ltd
Negative press about KRBL promoters depressed the share price several times. Look at KRBL’s shareholding pattern you’ll get your answer. About 6% held by Joint Director Of Enforcement, Central Region
Hi @visuarchie , really appreciate your efforts to share your knowledge and work with the community here…and also members trying the methodology on their own by putting it into practice…
I am a big fan of this non-discretionary momentum strategies, which I came to know from Alok Jain of weekend investing… they work very well with minimal effort in trending markets… I tried to figure out a way to sit out non-trending markets
Now I see that you seem to have MA cross over to guide on that… do u use MA of respective index or Nifty? And does it trigger 100% exit and entry? Sorry if it’s already explained in ur session… I still need to watch it
Once again thanks a bunch for your efforts
3 stocks are different in your’s and mine list. You have these and I don’t have them:
GANESHHOUC
INGERRAND
THOMASCOOK
While I have these 3:
ITDCEM
TVSHLTD
WABAG
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