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Posts in category Value Pickr
Hitesh portfolio (17-05-2024)
In response to the negative divergence in Nifty and some other indices we have had a corrective market. But in the backdrop of election outcome nervousness, some amount of volatility is always expected in the markets.
I would not read too much into these divergence observations as long as key levels are held during corrections. I feel this is the best time to watch out for companies declaring better than expected results and encouraging commentary and make a list of such companies and levels at which to buy these companies. During bouts of intense volatility, this list can come handy. (don’t ask me for my list. )
@jp_sharma I don’t track the renewable space. Big miss for me.
Hitesh portfolio (17-05-2024)
In response to the negative divergence in Nifty and some other indices we have had a corrective market. But in the backdrop of election outcome nervousness, some amount of volatility is always expected in the markets.
I would not read too much into these divergence observations as long as key levels are held during corrections. I feel this is the best time to watch out for companies declaring better than expected results and encouraging commentary and make a list of such companies and levels at which to buy these companies. During bouts of intense volatility, this list can come handy. (don’t ask me for my list. )
@jp_sharma I don’t track the renewable space. Big miss for me.
SWELECT ENERGY SYSTEMS LTD – some information from Annual report (17-05-2024)
There was a recent interview - where company has given number as 450 MW for FY 25 in module plants
Also for some of these orders, company will have their own EPC ( dont know how much part ) + their BOP revenue + Their IPP revenues.
So all in all FY25 looks good.
Also company has guided for new Cell manufacturing facility - followed by 2GW of module plant next year. So if things works out & goverment policies remain intact- then Swelect could well be very interesting story going forward.
Disc: Invested, added more in march corrections…
Link for interview
EQ In Exclusive Conversation With Mr.Manish - AVP - & Mr. S.Narayana - Director BE- Swelect
SWELECT ENERGY SYSTEMS LTD – some information from Annual report (17-05-2024)
There was a recent interview - where company has given number as 450 MW for FY 25 in module plants
Also for some of these orders, company will have their own EPC ( dont know how much part ) + their BOP revenue + Their IPP revenues.
So all in all FY25 looks good.
Also company has guided for new Cell manufacturing facility - followed by 2GW of module plant next year. So if things works out & goverment policies remain intact- then Swelect could well be very interesting story going forward.
Disc: Invested, added more in march corrections…
Link for interview
EQ In Exclusive Conversation With Mr.Manish - AVP - & Mr. S.Narayana - Director BE- Swelect
REPCO home finance (17-05-2024)
Q4FY24 Con-call Notes:
Loan Book and Disbursements
Q4’24 & FY24 performance
• Disbursements
(figures in crores)
o Q4 FY24 = 895 (Q4 FY23 = 835) i.e. 7% growth
o Full FY 24 = 3,135 (Full FY 23= 2,919) i.e. 7% growth
• Loan Book
(figures in crores)
o Q4 FY24 end = 13,513 (Q4 FY23 end = 12,449) i.e. 8.5% growth in FY24 vs FY23
(Note: The management had targeted 14,000 CR loan book by FY24 end, however missed the target. Reasons given were - intense competition in home loan segment & also due to 169 CR of GNPA reduction, which was reduced from the loan book.)
• Segment wise loan book:
Loan Book (value & growth) | |||
---|---|---|---|
As on 31st March 2024 | As on 31st March 2023 | YoY Growth | |
Home loan (A) | 10,135 CR | 9,835 CR | 3% |
Non home loan (B) | 3,378 CR | 2,490 CR | 36% |
Total (A+B) | 12,449 CR | 13,513 CR | 8.50% |
(Note: As can be seen, the non-home loan segment which includes LAP, commercial real estate etc. is growing much faster than home loans. Non-home loans constitute about 25% of the book.)
Guidance on growth in FY25
• Targeting 15,000 CR loan book by FY25 (11-12% growth) net of BTs & GNPAs reduced from loan book.
• 3,600-3,800 CR disbursements targeted.
• Growth drivers – (i) 40 new branches to be added (half in TN, half outside); (ii) Field sales team to grow from 200 to 300 employees; (iii) More focus on home loan & salaried segments with slight compromise in yields.
• In FY25, Q1 will might not show much growth as new branches and sales team members added will take some time to get productive.
• FY27 end loan book target is INR 20,000 crores (Non-home loans will be 25-30% of this)
• There was no firm comment on growing loan book through direct assignment route.
Profitability related guidance
PAT
• For full FY24 PAT is 395 CR vs FY23 PAT of 296 CR– jump of 33%.
• PAT guidance for FY25 is 450 to 475 CR. This includes 40-60 CR of projected write backs.
ROA, ROE, Spread & NIM guidance
• FY25 ROA guidance = 3% (vs FY24 ROA = 3% i.e. same range)
• FY25 ROE guidance = 15-16% (vs FY24 ROA = 15.8% i.e. same range)
• FY25 Spread guidance = Around 3% (FY24 spread= 3.4). As company will target higher growth, it might translate to somewhat lower yields.
• FY25 NIM% guidance = 4.8% to 5.2% (FY24 spread= 5.2%). Again might drop due to higher growth targeted.
Cost of borrowing and cost to income
• Since Net NPAs have reduced, they are eligible for NHB funding. Final decision on that after AGM. This might bring down the cost of borrowing from the current avg of 8.3%.
• Cost to income ratio for FY25 is likely to remain in the same range as FY24.
Asset quality related
• The GNPA trend over the last 12 months has been as follows: -
GNPA% (stage 3) | |||
---|---|---|---|
31-Mar-24 | 31-Dec-23 | 31-Mar-23 | |
Home Loan | 4% | 4.50% | 5.40% |
Non-Home Loan | 4.30% | 5.20% | 7.10% |
Overall | 4.10% | 4.7% | 5.80% |
• Company is targeting overall stage 3 GNPA% of 3% by end FY25. And below 2% by FY27.
• To reduce GNPAs – (i) Company will take steps like auction properties, taking possession etc. for current bad loans; (ii) They are also planning to double to their collection team from 80 to around 150 to reduce further slippages.
• Current stage 2 GNPAs are 11% (of total loan book), company targets to bring it to around 7-9% by FY25 end (Note: Stage 2 GNPAs have always been historically higher for Repco vs some of other HFCs, so it might be something to watch out for)
• As per the mgmt. new loan book (loans given since Jan’22) has a stage 3 GNPA of just 0.24% (Note: Since a big chunk of this is non-home loans, one still needs to be watchful of how it pans out in future)
• Currently, Provision coverage ratio for stage 3 GNPA = 65.2%
• Management is confident of writing back 40-60 crores of these provisions in FY25 (total provisions of 31 Mar 24 are 518 crores).
REPCO home finance (17-05-2024)
Q4FY24 Con-call Notes:
Loan Book and Disbursements
Q4’24 & FY24 performance
• Disbursements
(figures in crores)
o Q4 FY24 = 895 (Q4 FY23 = 835) i.e. 7% growth
o Full FY 24 = 3,135 (Full FY 23= 2,919) i.e. 7% growth
• Loan Book
(figures in crores)
o Q4 FY24 end = 13,513 (Q4 FY23 end = 12,449) i.e. 8.5% growth in FY24 vs FY23
(Note: The management had targeted 14,000 CR loan book by FY24 end, however missed the target. Reasons given were - intense competition in home loan segment & also due to 169 CR of GNPA reduction, which was reduced from the loan book.)
• Segment wise loan book:
Loan Book (value & growth) | |||
---|---|---|---|
As on 31st March 2024 | As on 31st March 2023 | YoY Growth | |
Home loan (A) | 10,135 CR | 9,835 CR | 3% |
Non home loan (B) | 3,378 CR | 2,490 CR | 36% |
Total (A+B) | 12,449 CR | 13,513 CR | 8.50% |
(Note: As can be seen, the non-home loan segment which includes LAP, commercial real estate etc. is growing much faster than home loans. Non-home loans constitute about 25% of the book.)
Guidance on growth in FY25
• Targeting 15,000 CR loan book by FY25 (11-12% growth) net of BTs & GNPAs reduced from loan book.
• 3,600-3,800 CR disbursements targeted.
• Growth drivers – (i) 40 new branches to be added (half in TN, half outside); (ii) Field sales team to grow from 200 to 300 employees; (iii) More focus on home loan & salaried segments with slight compromise in yields.
• In FY25, Q1 will might not show much growth as new branches and sales team members added will take some time to get productive.
• FY27 end loan book target is INR 20,000 crores (Non-home loans will be 25-30% of this)
• There was no firm comment on growing loan book through direct assignment route.
Profitability related guidance
PAT
• For full FY24 PAT is 395 CR vs FY23 PAT of 296 CR– jump of 33%.
• PAT guidance for FY25 is 450 to 475 CR. This includes 40-60 CR of projected write backs.
ROA, ROE, Spread & NIM guidance
• FY25 ROA guidance = 3% (vs FY24 ROA = 3% i.e. same range)
• FY25 ROE guidance = 15-16% (vs FY24 ROA = 15.8% i.e. same range)
• FY25 Spread guidance = Around 3% (FY24 spread= 3.4). As company will target higher growth, it might translate to somewhat lower yields.
• FY25 NIM% guidance = 4.8% to 5.2% (FY24 spread= 5.2%). Again might drop due to higher growth targeted.
Cost of borrowing and cost to income
• Since Net NPAs have reduced, they are eligible for NHB funding. Final decision on that after AGM. This might bring down the cost of borrowing from the current avg of 8.3%.
• Cost to income ratio for FY25 is likely to remain in the same range as FY24.
Asset quality related
• The GNPA trend over the last 12 months has been as follows: -
GNPA% (stage 3) | |||
---|---|---|---|
31-Mar-24 | 31-Dec-23 | 31-Mar-23 | |
Home Loan | 4% | 4.50% | 5.40% |
Non-Home Loan | 4.30% | 5.20% | 7.10% |
Overall | 4.10% | 4.7% | 5.80% |
• Company is targeting overall stage 3 GNPA% of 3% by end FY25. And below 2% by FY27.
• To reduce GNPAs – (i) Company will take steps like auction properties, taking possession etc. for current bad loans; (ii) They are also planning to double to their collection team from 80 to around 150 to reduce further slippages.
• Current stage 2 GNPAs are 11% (of total loan book), company targets to bring it to around 7-9% by FY25 end (Note: Stage 2 GNPAs have always been historically higher for Repco vs some of other HFCs, so it might be something to watch out for)
• As per the mgmt. new loan book (loans given since Jan’22) has a stage 3 GNPA of just 0.24% (Note: Since a big chunk of this is non-home loans, one still needs to be watchful of how it pans out in future)
• Currently, Provision coverage ratio for stage 3 GNPA = 65.2%
• Management is confident of writing back 40-60 crores of these provisions in FY25 (total provisions of 31 Mar 24 are 518 crores).