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Posts in category Value Pickr
Shree Pushkar Chemicals (28-09-2024)
Hello respected members anyone who attended today’s AGM please share notes , thanks
Srestha Finvest Ltd: A Strategic Shift Towards Green Finance and Sustainable financing (28-09-2024)
Hi Bala, thanks. For me this happens to be my largest holding. The valuations are definitely dirt cheap which makes The risk-reward ratio very attractive for this stock.
ValuePickr Pune (28-09-2024)
@Dilip_vr Thanks for the suggestion. I will look at the BSE and NSE announcements. I have a US version of the site that also covers company specific news similar BSE and NSE announcement. Try searching for Trip.com or Array at Causalityarrow.com
I am trying to get such announcement news for the India site as well.
Srestha Finvest Ltd: A Strategic Shift Towards Green Finance and Sustainable financing (28-09-2024)
Hi Harsh,
well done on the write up and thorough research. I am also invested heavily. in this script. Another positive currently is it travels below FV and BV.
Agarwal Industrial Corporation Ltd – Profitable Microcap with high growth potential in infrastructure space (28-09-2024)
Regarding low earning multiples, following are some of the potential reasons.
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The corporate governance appears below average.
(Reason 1: All independent directors resigned in August 2023 on the same day. The curious thing is all sighted the same reason and all resignation letters have same format and fonts. Also none of the independent directors took any sitting fees, which is highly unusual. All these resonably indicates that independent directors are not independent.)
(Reason 2: The promoters itself voted against the resolution for splitting the shares, indicating an immaturity.)
(Reason 3: BOD seems nothing but the family get-togather.)
(Reason 4: The promoters have a history of issuing shares or warrants to itself briefly before a big positive for the company in terms of profits.) -
The fate of the company is dependent on one commodity as well as completely on imports. Any change in the stance of the Govt regarding import of Bitumen can completely destroy the company.
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Some subsidiaries have been incorporated in Cayman. Why? Nobody know. Nothing of that sort has been discussed in any AGM or ConCall.
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Low float.
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Value addition is very low in the product. The company is engaged mostly in logistics and selling the Bitumen.
Now, above points are not sufficient to not own the company. So, I am highlighting some positive points.
- Good cashflow.
- Some degree of competitive advantage.
- Beneficial subsidiary structure to completely avoid income tax on a good portion of profits. (Why? How? Figure out on your own.)
- No planned capacity addition of Bitumen by domestic manufacturers. So, import has to happen.
- The company has imported high quantity of Bitumen between April-August, 2024 v/s the same period for last year. (This is a reason to own for short term, if you like to do it)
- Rain is heavy this season across the India. Good demand is anticipated for repairs. However, new road construction is expected to remain subdued. (Again a short term reason.)
Som Distilleries and Breweries (28-09-2024)
Please remember, only management lets you make money in the long term. This company was cought with issue such as child labour.
Anyways, it’s your money so do whatever you like.
Websol energy system ltd (28-09-2024)
Yes I know that is why I am very bullish on this stock. I have made very conservative calculations.
Relative Rotation Graph (28-09-2024)
RRG
- Leading Quadrant (Green):
- Indices such as Nifty Realty, Nifty Metal, and Nifty Private Bank are in the leading quadrant, indicating they are outperforming the benchmark and have strong momentum.
- Improving Quadrant (Purple):
- Nifty Energy, Nifty CPSE, Nifty PSE, and Nifty PSU Bank are in the improving quadrant, suggesting these sectors are gaining momentum but have not yet crossed into the leading quadrant.
- Lagging Quadrant (Red):
- Nifty IT, Nifty Oil & Gas, and some midcap and smallcap indices are in the lagging quadrant, showing underperformance compared to the benchmark and weakening momentum.
- Weakening Quadrant (Orange):
- Nifty Consumer Durables is in the weakening quadrant, implying it is still performing well but is losing momentum.
Momentum and Rotation:
- The arrows show the direction in which the sectors are moving. The sectors in the improving quadrant, such as Nifty Energy, are moving towards the leading quadrant, suggesting that they are strengthening and could become attractive investment opportunities soon.
- On the other hand, sectors like Nifty Consumer Durables are in the weakening quadrant and are heading towards the lagging quadrant, indicating that their relative strength is diminishing.
Sector Trends:
- Nifty Realty is in a strong position, firmly in the leading quadrant, and its trajectory suggests continued outperformance.
- Nifty IT is significantly lagging and shows little improvement in momentum, suggesting caution for short-term traders.
How Investors and Swing Traders Can Benefit:
- Identifying Strong Sectors for Investment:
- Investors can use the RRG to identify sectors in the leading quadrant, such as Nifty Realty and Nifty Metal, as these sectors are likely to continue outperforming. Allocating capital to these sectors can yield better returns.
- Sector Rotation Strategies:
- Swing traders can benefit by focusing on sectors in the improving quadrant, such as Nifty Energy and Nifty CPSE. These sectors are gaining momentum and might enter the leading quadrant, providing good opportunities for short- to medium-term gains.
- Conversely, sectors in the weakening quadrant, such as Nifty Consumer Durables, can be used as a signal to reduce exposure or look for short opportunities, as they are losing strength.
- Avoiding Underperforming Sectors:
- Both investors and swing traders can avoid or limit exposure to sectors in the lagging quadrant (e.g., Nifty IT and Nifty Oil & Gas) as they are underperforming the benchmark and lack momentum.
- Timing the Entry and Exit:
- Swing traders can utilize the rotation of sectors to time their entries. For example, they could enter positions in sectors moving from improving to leading or exit positions in sectors shifting from leading to weakening.