Urban Tots is one of the players in the unlisted space, company name is Deepak Houseware and Toys. Their products are available at Hamleys, Dmart, Reliance retail and also selling through online channels. Recently it was in the news for tying up with IOC for kiosks at IOC outlets. Five of these are operational on pilot basis. As per the ministry, they plan to open 500 such stores. Earlier Urban Tots was also in news for its tie up with Mahindra for XUV models miniatures and agreement with Firstcry.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Sme stock analysis : faalcon concepts ltd (11-05-2024)
Today let us deep dive into one of the listed SME stock that is FAALCON CONCEPTS LTD.
- Faalcon Concepts Limited deals with planning, designing, fabricating, and installing façade systems.
- The company offers facades resistant to UV rays, acid rain, dust, noise, and other influences.
Now , you must be thinking what exactly facade means…right?
A facade is the exterior wall or face of a building, and it usually involves design elements like deliberate placement of windows or doors. Depending on architectural style, these elements have a certain order to them.
What we usually see outside India…those big buildings with exterior glass walls. This is normal right in other countries.
You know what in our country how real estate is booming right? Infra companies coming up with so many buildings…so this facade is directly proportional to real estate means more buildings more growth of facade industry.
Still you did not get what facade is? watch this video you will get more clarity
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FUNDAMENTALS
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Promoter holding more than 65%
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ROCE : 71%
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ROE : 79%
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Co. has a total order book of 50 Crs as of March 24 which is 3x+ its FY23 sales.
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Equity capital = 0.02
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FEW NEGATIVES TO LOOK AT
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Trade receivables has increased.
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Cash conversion cycle has increased.
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TECHNICALS
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IPO Breakout is possible. Once it breaks the trend line we can see good movement
Sources : screener , tradingview
DISCLAIMER
My videos, presentations, and writing are only for educational purposes and are not intended as investment advice. I cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information provided.
I am not SEBI-registered.
Trading & Investing in stocks, options or equities involves risk & are not suitable for all investors
Microcap momentum portfolio (11-05-2024)
You need to follow steps couple of times before you get the actual results.
Sula vineyards – pioneers in indian wines (11-05-2024)
Sula and KRBL Similarities
Ageing is critical for both the businesses.
Longer you age grape - Better the wine, better the pricing.
Longer you age basmati - Longer product better aroma, better the pricing.
KRBL Cons inventory Days 2023 - 404 Days
Sula Cons Inventory Days 2024 - 540 Days
In their best of days 2014-15-16 (ROE) for KRBL was touching 30% when the working capital (Inventory being aged ) was funded by debt.
When the company went debt free inventory was funded by retained profits / equity and that started hurting ROE.
Because equity has been cheap for Sula it has been funding wine ageing from equity.
Ideally these business require some sort of LEVERAGE for good ROEs in my opinion.
Only exception would be when the end product is AAA in quality / niche so the company has very strong pricing power.
If Sula wants to Scale up and become the kingfisher of wines without compromising on ROEs then I think they may have to -
Outsource ageing of Grapes
Reduce inventory days (compromise product quality?)
Fund working capital with debt
Somehow manage to get high pricing power with economies of scale
PS - I have not worked in depth @ Sula…these are just observations I made. I was invested in KRBL but was seeing a serious ROE drop due to competition & Promoters unwilling to take debt. Hence Exited.
Pitti Engineering Limited: Is it on an inflection point? (11-05-2024)
Q4 Results and FY 24 results on Wednesday 15th May. Dividend declaration possible. The company is also thinking of raising money through preferential allotment.
Investment journey of a late starter (11-05-2024)
yes mfs are much the best for the large and bigger midcaps…I think fund managers underatand these shares better than us.
I think 2024 even after election results markets will be largely in a band. I dont think we are going to break the highs personally…There are such high valuations particularly in the utility PSU space ,autos etc and also huge uncertainties with IT etc because of the threat of AI and cut back on spending from usa.
Maybe there will be an opportunity in metals and mining …and also in pharmaceuticals as a defensive thing but pharma in india has such high valuations as well.
as you rightly say the opportunity is in smallcaps because some of these are still going to do 5x 10x over time…but one has to be super selecctive.
i still believe India is the most opportunistic market in the world but over a long period
Microcap momentum portfolio (11-05-2024)
@hariharancj Its not a hassle, but I have to remove lots of personal data before I can share.
In the meantime, please check the look back dates; that is where we could end up with differences.
1 year - 12/05/2023
6 months - 10/11/2023
This might eliminate the differences.
Low Volatility Stocks (11-05-2024)
I guess what you are saying about @virajkhatavkar and @1957’s experiences are valid. However, we are going through a bull phase and that is why low vol pfs are not good enough. I suppose if we went through multiple cycles, we might see something different.
I read what you wrote about pf volatility vs stock volatility. Your point was to add defensive stocks and you should end up with a low volatility. I am trying to come up with a system where entries and exits are clearly defined. There should be no room for discretion or judgement on companies performance.
You have said that SD may not be the best measure of volatility. What are the other better metrics that you can think of? I am interested to know and will implement if feasible.
I went through with the exercise of identifying top 10 stocks based on low volatility (with the condition that CMP > 200 DMA and 1 yr +ve returns). I ended up with the following stocks (1 yr returns given alongside).
ICICIBANK | 23% |
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BRITANNIA | 3% |
ITC | 2% |
SUNPHARMA | 56% |
TITAN | 29% |
NESTLEIND | 12% |
DABUR | 5% |
BHARTIARTL | 62% |
MRF | 30% |
ULTRACEMCO | 29% |
Average for this pf is 25%.
When I added the additional parameter of closeness to 52w high and then ranked them, I came up with the following list ( 1y returns alongside).
ICICIBANK | 23% |
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AXISBANK | 32% |
BHARTIARTL | 62% |
SBIN | 44% |
PIDILITIND | 19% |
RELIANCE | 17% |
GRASIM | 42% |
DIVISLAB | 13% |
SRF | 2% |
ICICIGI | 56% |
Average returns is around 31%
I know that this is not perfect as we are selecting today and checking how they have done in the past one year. I am aware that past returns cannot be extrapolated to the future, but was just trying to see what sort of returns of these stocks provide.
If you consider standalone these returns are not bad. In a bull market, when all stocks are doing well, this might seem insufficient.
Ranvir’s Portfolio (11-05-2024)
A total Debt of 175 cr at the end of FY 24 ( iro Kamat Hotels )
Microcap momentum portfolio (11-05-2024)
Hi Sir,
If it is not a concern for you, could you share latest file as most of the stocks are matching as per your list but few stocks, order / ranking came out different for me in my working though i followed the same steps as you explained in the video. I could not figure out what mistake i made in this file. Based on the latest file i will cross verify what’s the issue. For example, Elecast is appearing in 2nd rank in my working