Seems like its priced to perfection. With competitors like Microsoft and Reliance, a small player may not be able to withstand. It has no associated business like Jio has in telecom. It could be exposed to market volatility.
Posts in category Value Pickr
What if we dont find any gold underground ? (A Rational calculation attempt) (11-05-2024)
Niice visualization on Total Gold. that i came across
So far total identified gold on earth: 254296 tonnes, of which 79.15% are out of ground. 20.84% below ground.
once these identified gold reserves 20.84% are mined. gold will increase rapidly more than the rate that we are seeing now. so this thread is about keeping a close watch on this year on year.
- We are talking about only identified gold mines. no one is sure about how many are yet to be identified.
Deman and supply by World Gold Council.
53000 tonnes on the ground.
take for example ~3600 tonnes mine production yoy. (much lesser that what we see the chat)
we will be out of gold in ~14.7 years max.
do we live to see gold skyrocket?
elon musk/ his counter parts will mine gold from asteroids?
Smallcap momentum portfolio (11-05-2024)
@hariharancj Please find below link to the latest working file.
Avanti Feeds (11-05-2024)
Not a non-vegetarian so curious to know if a situation like Bird-flu increase the consumption of other meat sources. Is there a possibility to see a spike in prawn/seafood consumption?
Ami Organics – Pharma Intermediates & Specialty Chemicals (11-05-2024)
You have to adjust this data to account for some billing differences
Smallcap momentum portfolio (11-05-2024)
@visuarchie Hi Sir,
If possible, can you please share the latest working file of small cap momentum for me to start referencing from this.
Have seen your videos in Microcap momentum today and it was fantastic. Based on the same, i have updated momentum stocks file and list of stocks arrived was almost same as last week (except 2 stocks moving out of Top 30)
Thank you so much for your efforts and explanation.
Ami Organics – Pharma Intermediates & Specialty Chemicals (11-05-2024)
I think what really happened in Q2:
a) We saw a global correction in base chemicals and KSM’s - Ami had to eventually sell at a price where competition killed pricing due to having access to cheaper RM whereas Ami had stored RM’s for 3 months in advance (high cost RM)
b) Contribution of one of their key anti-coagulants is almost negligible to zero in FY24 (Apixaban)
Some updates on Apixaban
-Apixaban’s patent was rendered invalid by UK Court (they mentioned- gave entry to Teva and Sandoz who are the generic filers (Ami’s clients).
The expectation was that rest of Europe would follow. However, in July 2023 the Apixaban patent was upheld in Netherlands and France, to an extent where generic versions of Apixaban were removed.
-However, the Irish government has sided with the decision of the UK government and render the patent invalid.
-Apixaban’s global patent expiry is at the end of CY26 meaning generic filers get access to the product in 2027.
-Though Apixaban’s contribution in FY24 was negligible to zero - it could make a comeback for Ami in FY25 (as UK and Ireland volume may be re-stocked)
Smallcap momentum portfolio (11-05-2024)
@Anand_Jain We have a fixed portfolio of 20 stocks only. Therefore, if 1 stock goes out, only 1 can come in. Similarly, if 2 stocks go out, only 2 stocks can come in.
To reduce the churn, I have given some allowance. Even if the stock goes out of the top 20, I will not exit if it remains within the top 25, ie it can drop 5 more places before I exit.
In the above case, only CHALET exits as the other two stocks are within my 25 limit.
If 1 stock goes out, only 1 can come in.
Therefore, even if there are 3 new entrants in the top 20, only 1 can come in. Amongst the three, TATAINVEST ranks the highest (17th rank) and hence it is chosen. The other two are 18th rank and 20th rank.
Trust this is clear.
P.E. Analytics Ltd (PROPEQUITY) – Another Data Analytics Platform for Real Estate Players (11-05-2024)
Propequity grew sales by 37% in FY24 and plan to maintain this trajectory. They are launching a number of new verticals which might keep margins in check. Management seems very growth hungry and want to scale to 500-1000 cr. revenues. Concall notes below.
FY24Q4
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Website subscription
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Clients increased to 215 (vs 205 in Q3FY24) in website subscription business. Retention ratio is 81% (vs 85% in Q3FY24)
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47 of top 50 developers are their clients
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Average client generates 10L/year, they are now selling at 5L/year to smaller developers to increase market size
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Residential peers: Liases Foras, Commercial peers: Propstack, CE matrix
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Valuation
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Clients increased to 70 (vs 65 in Q2FY24) in home valuation business
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Valuation business is now operating at 2 cr./month in March 2024, targeting 75-100% growth in sales in FY25 (vs 17.85 cr. in FY24)
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Make 1200-3000 per valuation report depending on city and bank
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Will make 15-25% EBITDA margins until they reach 100 cr.
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Auto financing
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TVS and Mahindra are the 2 incumbents (100 cr.+ revenues each), they outsource employees. Propedge has started this division on request of banks
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In housing finance business, 10-15% of housing valuation business of a single bank can be given to Propedge, however there are no such restrictions in auto valuations
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50L second hand car market annually; Rs. 600/inspection (atleast 300 cr. market size)
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5-6 valuations done at one shot which makes unit economics better than housing
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Will be launching in 3 cities in next 3 months
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Plant & machinery valuations: Will be launched in next 6 months
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Will be going overseas (Middle east) & launch B2B consulting services
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Project monitoring vertical (B2C)
- 2300 cr. project monitoring market size – if this picks up it will be bigger than all their other verticals put together
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Developer asset management
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Charge 8-10% of project revenues
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Will raise separate real estate private equity fund which will be used for project financing (won’t use Propequity’s balance sheet for this)
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Original plan with Berkshire Hathaway was to do high end valuations, however then Berkshire pivoted to development only which has also not taken up
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Forbes will be involved only when developer asks for the Forbes brand name
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In other developer asset management, will do standalone and not partner with anyone
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Social media
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Will help them generate leads for developers + give them a captive user base for their project management vertical
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Invested 50 lakh in FY24 (social media + developer management)
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Will be investing 1.2 cr. in social media vertical in FY25
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10% army discount for TATA projects, don’t know how they will monetize the Youtube channels so far
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60 leads in last 2 months
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Research & consulting will reach 2-2.5 cr. in FY25 (50% EBITDA margin)
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No plans of paying dividends as they have lots of growth opportunities
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Current focus is on growth and not on optimizing margins
Disclosure: Invested (position size here, no transactions in last-30 days)
JTL Industries – Fast Grower at an inflexion point (11-05-2024)
Does this affect their long term prospects ??