Sir, want to know how your portfolio looks like. Seems mostly you are into smallcaps microcaps only. And you take deep value bets. Is there any thread containing your portfolio.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Indian Microfinance Sector and the companies in the sector (25-09-2024)
If you notice, for last few year there is a huge increase in microfinance portfolio of all the companies. Microfinance has this peculiar thing that in good time, asset quality of these companies will be quite low, but when thing go bad, they happen in very short span of time. For achieving the growth, these companies tend to give loan to some customers who already have got some loan with other companies. Even though each company is is giving something like 50000 only to the customer, when many companies lend to same customer, suddenly customer is over levered. Below pic sums up what happening
In the pool of fusion customers, by the end of FY23, customers having loans from more than 4 lenders is 6%, but by end of FY24, customers having loans more than 4 lenders is 24%. Now Fusion and Spandana showed higher detoriation, but the general trend is NPA is increasing in all lenders. If you read Equitas concall, the openly stated that microfinance lenders are following bad practices(please read equitas Q1FY25 concall, you will get more clarity)
Who is going to be the winners in 2 wheeler industry? Is it TVS, Bajaj Auto, Hero Motors , Eicher, or Ola ? Or is it going to be someone else -“Who moved my cheese”⁰ (25-09-2024)
Agreed they’ve gained market share. But as I mentioned it’s because of only two products Shine and Activa. Once these products are out of favour they’ll start losing share. Look at the gains of Hero Motocorp in 250cc and above segment.
Simple Investing (25-09-2024)
I was checking my posts on portfolio strategy plans I had for myself and checking how it panned out amid ongoing bull and in between a big consolidation phase.
In case of Consumer discretionary, Whirlpool & Voltas have been weeded out. Hitachi AC somehow remains. What is interesting is that United Spirits & United breweries (which I added at that time as I missed the bottom fishing of my existing FMCG stocks in 2020 bottom by giving in to the noise of experts) forms bulk of this basket currently somewhere around 8.5% of portfolio.
Over the years I realized that Consumer durables is not really for me.
I would still hold Hitachi AC (probably eventually a Bosch company) as a part of my technology basket rather than a consumer durable company because of their focus on technology & research.
Technology had rewarded me quickly then, followed by a long correction & consolidation phase currently. It currently forms 10% of my portfolio in spite of selling around 1/3rd OFSS just before its 4x rise.
This is one part I would still like to be around 15% mark, so, although progress but Work in progress. Mistake to prune a conviction buy, although needed funds.
Well, this has been the real winner so far, thanks to Trent and this basket of Trent, Dmart & Spencer Retail forming 20% of current portfolio. This is a job well done, but again not because of my skills. Had I been aggressive in scaling this up, the rise of my highest conviction pick, Trent, would have have resulted in a much higher portfolio percentage of Retail.
Disc: Invested in above names hence biased. Not a buy/sell recommendation. Post only for learning & analysis purposes. I can be wrong in all my assessments & not eligible for any advice.
ValuePickr Pune (25-09-2024)
Hi all , we can plan a meet in Pune. Please join in case interested to iron out details
Thanks
SG Mart- Can it successfully create a marketplace? (25-09-2024)
Have you read the entire thread ? The person who has set up the business has much more pedigree in his field than we have . Surely ,he can also see with his eyes that the sector is unorganised and margins are thin . He is trying to do something that has not been done at this scale and apparently many canny investors and industrialists have faith in the business model to put in money when there was no business at all . While it’s true that they did so at 250 per share , it’s also true they did it based on even less data to go on . While the business can run and be profitable consistently in future is something that no one knows , it’s surely foolish to look for moat in a business that’s only taking baby steps . It surely won’t pass the Buffet copycats scrutiny but there are many ways to invest and make money .Only thing is that one must not not expect to hear opera music in a rock concert .
SG Mart- Can it successfully create a marketplace? (25-09-2024)
Wafers thin margins are there moat are you kidding me! Did you know who is there real competitors the local traders are more cheap than sg mart.cause i am working in civil construction business so our clients never paid full amount of steel or others material or they relying on local traders so they used their black money also.or something I can’t tell you in …
Who is going to be the winners in 2 wheeler industry? Is it TVS, Bajaj Auto, Hero Motors , Eicher, or Ola ? Or is it going to be someone else -“Who moved my cheese”⁰ (25-09-2024)
Thank you for your response.They may have fewer models… But if these are winning models like CD100 of 1985…tbey have made it to the point.
Market share is a very important parameter. it indicates with a given addressable market volumes , what is the pie one gains ?
You may like to open and read the 1st link and read the entire article for better clarity in numbers, volumes and market share- “Honda gains market share across 2 wheeler segments during 2024-25 YTD.”
SG Mart- Can it successfully create a marketplace? (25-09-2024)
Apl Apolo buy steel and makes value addition pipe and tubes .but what are need in steel distribution company does they add value or they can ? I didn’t think so , it’s not a brand related things.you don’t need any brand for steel distribution. So it’s not make any sense