Not sure how all analyst came to a single price target of 220 plus minus 5
No difference of opinion
Or is it just copy and paste by all national and international analysts
Posts in category Value Pickr
Manappuram Finance (27-05-2024)
Smallcap momentum portfolio (27-05-2024)
Thank you very much sir. My list matches with you. Please can you guide how to get the 50EMA, can you please share the formula to be used in this google sheet.
PGINVIT impairment of investments in subsidiaries and book value (27-05-2024)
Good read on PGINVIT
Rural Elect Corp (27-05-2024)
Tanla Platforms ~ Leading player in the fast-growing CPaaS market (27-05-2024)
Sorry Aishwary, somehow I am not very good at judging it. PE is often based on what market takes a fancy to, or on the reverse doesn’t understand well. At times it gets influenced by who is buying. In short, it is dynamic and beyond my capability to predict. There are reports from HDFC Securities and others, maybe you can refer to that - those guys are professionals and you will perhaps get a sense.
Samarth’s Portfolio & Learnings (27-05-2024)
To begin with I’ll try to share my investing rationale for investing in Hi-green carbon ltd.
The company is engaged in recycling of end of use tires to produce pyrolysis oil, recovered carbon black, and sodium silicate (raw glass)
Hi – Green Carbon Limited Report (1).pdf (735.9 KB)
Above I have attached a note regarding my understanding of the business and my learning’s from the company I hope you all derive some value from it.
secondly, the economics of the company’s business is what attracted me let me explain that to you:
Company on its max can generate a revenue of INR 70-80 Crores from one plant and currently it operates only one plant but two plants one in MP & Another one in Dhule, Maharashtra are under construction so after setting up three plants the company will able to generate a revenue in line of 200-250 crores at an EBITDA margin of 22-25% and PAT Margins of 15-18% which will give company enough revenue to setup another plant from internal accruals only and they will need just 10-12 crores in working capital.
Plus, they are getting 80% GST subsidy on capex done in Maharashtra which will lower there capex cost and are getting 40% subsidy on capex done in MP so again that will lead to decrease in capex cost leading to higher ROIC.
The company is not only certified from Indian govt. but also from ISCC and REACH which further indicates good operating standard as it a highly regulated industry so it gives a boost to them.
Secondly, the company is able to establish plant at a cost of 40-50 crores which is the main advantage that they have as to setup similar plant outside India it takes 200-300 crores in capex and it gets confirm while looking at its global peers.
The company is able to pass on the increase in cost to its customer and company if it matches the input and ouput cost, with increase in capacity and expansion in EBITDA margins that will be massive.
I can be biased as well and as a student i would always like to here the feedback from all of you…
Disc - it is not a buy or sell call it is just for educational purpose
Ujjivan Financial – Small Finance Bank (27-05-2024)
FY24 end BVPS 29.1, CMP ~54, PB - 1.85x
Valuations are undemanding, personally not worried about NIMS, OpLev. These will keep changing depending on the cycle. Credit costs were best in the industry this FY and there is no reason to not expect the same.
If we think about expectations investing, unless you think the market doesn’t know what you have mentioned, this is not a reason to sell.
Even if PB doesn’t expand there isn’t any reason for it to deflate either barring a black swan. So BVPS growth should ~= share price growth.
If we were at 2.5 or 3x PB right now then near term slowdown might be a more cause of concern.
These are just my biased views, as I intend to hold for long. Others may disagree with it.
Beta Drugs Limited (27-05-2024)
H2FY24:
• EBITDA margins stood at 21% - Primarily driven by two factors - one was a loss of Rs 4 crore in cosmeceutical division and second was due to higher raw material prices for Platins because of global price rise in gold and platinum prices.
• Beta has achieved a sale of Rs l crore in the month of April 24 for its Cosmeceutical division and has become marginally profitable.
• Also, the prices of Platins have gone down and moreover company is focussing more on the high margin products rather than platins for the next financial year.
• In addition, launch of 1st Suspension in February has given an edge to the company over its competitors and will impact margins positively going forward. (Caxfila OS 1st Indian brand of Megestrol Acetate Suspension)
• Beta has once again achieved a milestone by clearing Russian audit and hence received EUEA approval recently which will enhance its presence in Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Georgia and the company is well positioned for growth in regulated and emerging markets.
• GUIDANCE FOR FY 25: Revenues to increase by 25%to 30% while the EBITDA margins will be back in the range of 24%to 26%. Beta will do sales of Rs 15 crores in its Cosmeceutical division and thus adding profits to the company.
• In this financial year the company is expected to launch seven new products and NDDS.
• With approvals of EUEA, ANVISA, & INVIMA will drive exponential sales from exports in the next three years.
• Filed six syrups/suspensions as new product approval in DCGI: To be launch in FY 24- 25
• 53 new registrations in international market.
• 23 New products in the pipe-line
• Growth in FY ’24 –
Domestic Own Brand Business - 23%
CDMO Business - 28%
International Business - 65%
API Business - 15%
• COSMECEUTICAL-
Increased reach to 6000 customers
Increased prescriber base from 700 to 1100
Agreement with the European company for the First to launch products in Indian Cosmeceutical market
• CDMO Business - Capacity of lyophilized products has increased. It helped to reduce lead time for order execution.
• 450cr+ by FY26
CONCALL NOTES:
• First ever cytotoxic suspension facility. This is the first ever facility in Asia, Africa, Europe.
We have also introduced in this facility the first suspension that is megestrol acetate suspension in the domestic market. This product has got increased excitement in terms of doctors, and we have gained a respective market share in megestrol acetate. Not only this, bringing the NDDS to the market has increased the market size for this particular product.
In this particular year, we have also filed 6 more approvals in suspension and syrup segment. We hope to launch these products this year provided we get the approvals in time from DCGI.
• We have also strengthened our hematologic portfolio by adding 2 more products last year. This will continue building as a huge scope lies in the hematology segment. Out of both the segments, if we talk about the solid tumors and the hematology, the scope and the future lie in the hematology segment.
• EU GMP audit is going to happen in September, which will further add a lot of sales and international collaboration as we see that there are not many generic regulated approved cytotoxic plants available in the Indian market.
• In the CDMO business, last year we have shown a big growth as we have added 3 more new clients in our portfolio and some existing clients have added around 7 to 8 new products,
• The key highlights of API, we have developed and launched seven new products last year. We have also prepared 6 BMS which we are filing in the Brazil market in next month.
• COSMETOLOGY:
Our division name for cosmetology is Inspira.
We have already planned to come up with our own manufacturing unit by FY25-26. Today, the total number of SKUs are close to 14. We intend to increase the number of SKUs by 30 to 35 by the end of this FY24-25.
The total gross margins which we are getting in this division is close to 65%.
For cosmetology, the capex will be close to around Rs. 30 crores to Rs. 35 crores.
Actually, this is one segment which has been identical to oncology only because you are not making product available in the chemist. Every cosmetologist has their own chemist counters. So, it is one segment which has actually been replicated by the oncology side. So, that’s why we are focused on this segment only.
Migrating on to the Mainboard: we have already initiated the process. Maybe next 2 to 3 months, we will be migrating on to the Mainboard. Before our first quarter ended, we will try to be on the Mainboard before our first quarter ends.
• COMPETITION: So, the competition is there in the market, it’s for every business, right? But since we are the one only focused oncology company, we have certain special advantages. It is not only about the formulation, since we are backwardly integrated, that gives us an edge. And not only this, in certain products, we are the first one to launch in the Indian market. Last year, there was one product which became off patent, that was Olaparib. So, we have taken a huge market share once we launched that product, as we were the first one to launch that. So, this is the same strategy. The products which are becoming off patent, we have a list of products, we already developed that, there are certain products we will be launching this year also, and we will be taking that advantage.
• ACQUIRING MAs: The only investment we will be doing in acquiring the MAs once we are through with our EU GMP audit. So, we will not be following up the process of registering the product, rather we will be buying the MA and launching the same product in a lesser time as we go all out for the dosage registration
And regarding the CAPEX of around Rs. 7 crores to Rs. 8 crores or Rs. 10 crores, that’s an asset purchase that is called marketing authorization, product wise marketing authorization. Once we are through with the Europe approval, so we will be immediately going towards an acquisition of MA approvals. So, this is the main CAPEX required. It is not in terms of machinery, rather it is in terms of those bought from the market, particularly available in that market, so that we can immediately go and start the sales, which is a process of 3 to 4 years for registration.
• Platin is basically one product line which we cannot manufacture in-house. Today, 70% of our APIs are being produced by ourselves only, which we are backwardly integrated. And there are only two companies in India right now who are manufacturing this. One is Hetero Healthcare, one is Fresenius Kabi. So, we are procuring from them. And see, it’s not like we have seen that because if we go for a chemotherapy treatment, carboplatin and cisplatin is the basic treatment. And tomorrow we are joining, we are becoming a partner with any good CDMO player. So, the first product they will ask for is carboplatin only. But last 3 months, fortunately last 3 months, we have seen the prices have declined and we will be more focusing ourselves towards on the other product line rather on the platin side. Other products, there has been no cost increase. Rather, we have negotiated well from our KSM suppliers, and the API costs have decreased.
• So, this is one turning point and we, as a company, have laid down a strategy to focus more on the oral side. So, that’s why on my initial talk, I discussed shifting our focus from injectable to oral side because prescription business is always a long-term business.
• So, the top line would be, for the second half you want to know. The branded sales would be Rs. 41.5 crores, CMO business is Rs. 68 crores, export business is Rs. 30 crores, API is Rs. 11.7 crores and the Derma is Rs. 3.3 crores, so total comes to Rs. 154.44 crores.
• All capex will be from internal accruals.
• BIOSIMILARS JV: If we get an opportunity to get into the biosimilar in a JV with someone where they want to launch the product in India or anyone is developing those or they want some investment on the part of that, so we will be going ahead with that decision as well.
• In Colombia, we’ve already filed around 10 to 12 dossiers. In Mexico also, we have started filing dossiers. We have given around 24 dossiers. And this month only, we are traveling to this part of the continent, and we are taking an update from all our partners. In Brazil also, we have filed around 6 dossiers, and again, we are traveling there, so we will be having feedback from them when we are getting the registrations. Apart from these, we’ve already got 5 registrations in Peru. We have done business last year and we’ve got business this year as well, business estimate this year as well. We have also got some few registrations in Guatemala, in Ecuador, and in Nicaragua as well.
• US MARKETS: Recently, we have got the Beta plant audited by a US FDA regulator. So, he was in opinion that you can go for a US FDA audit immediately, but we are not in a hurry as we first want to establish ourselves towards in the Asian market, like specifically Southeast Asian market, Latin America market, and then there on move towards the Europe market. After that, definitely, we do have plans to enter US market in 3 years down the line.
• Whatever new developments or new product which we are going to launch in the Indian market, especially the PARP inhibitors. So, those products will be developed in our API plant and will be delivered to our formulations plant so that we can be the first one to launch those products in the Indian market.
• Yes, because this particular year will be having 6 new NDDS launched. We are expecting the approvals between October and March. So, those 6 new NDDS, new drug delivery system, will be the first time in India. This will definitely increase the margins.
• So, we have put our focus on these markets, and definitely you’ll see a huge upside in the next 2 to 3 years down the line, where export revenue will increase, and the margins will substantially increase. And the target, what we aim in the future, is that exports should contribute around 35% of the total business volume.
• Across all the segments in India, as per April is concerned, the highest CAGR is neoplastic, of course, the oncology, and the second highest CAGR, the growth is in the derma segment
• FY24 the breakup is branded sales Rs. 82 crores, CMO Rs. 140 crores, exports Rs. 46 crores. API Rs. 21 crores, derma Rs. 6.83 crores.
• See, branded sales always have more margin. It is somewhere around 33% to 36%, which branded has. 28% to 32% is exports margin. 15% to 17% is CMO margin. API, we have a standalone balance sheet. So, it shows me the correct margin automatically. So, that is somewhere around 22% to 23%. And Derma, we have already told you that 65% is the gross profit
(As branded sales and exports will gain momentum, margins are going to improve and thus guidance of 24-26% margin is justified)
• We try to make a GC in our own brands around close to 80%-85%
Tracxn Technologies (27-05-2024)
Yeah makes sense, I recall one of my investment banking associates stating that Tracxn provides good value for additional or misc information.
PDS Limited – A platform for entrepreneurs (27-05-2024)
This is a very good write up on PDS.
Is there any timeline to achieve the 1000 Cr PAT that the co is targetting ?
Their PAT margins seem to be around 2%. So going by that they will need a revenue of 50K to reach a PAT of 1000 Cr. And I am talking about the overall PAT here not the one accrued to shareholders.
So unless some operational leverage plays out and their subsidiaries start contributing positively to the bottomline and push the EBITDA margins to early double digits and PAT margins to 5%, these nos seem far fetched.
Investing in FD would earn more than double of what PDS is earning if we go by their PAT margins.