I would say. it is in consolidation mode (under ASM) after a decent run-up. I think it has lot more to offer, other than just EPR. Accumulate and sit tight may be a great idea.
Disc: Invested at lower level and biased.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Tinna rubber – recycling a rubbery growth path (16-09-2024)
All the EPR related names are in strong upwards momentum. Stocks like GRP Ltd, Lead Reclaim, Gravita have been reacting to the EPR buzz but Tinna Rubber is moving sideways since some time. Anyone aware of what could be the reason. The management sounded very confident in the last conference call that Tinna will be beneficiary of the EPR Policy, and the revenue from the sale of credits also will grow at decent pace.
Ranvir’s Portfolio (16-09-2024)
Emami Ltd –
Q1 FY 25 concall and results highlights –
Revenues – 896 vs 814 cr, up 10 pc
Gross Margins @ 67.7 vs 65.4 pc YoY
EBITDA – 216 vs 190 cr, up 14 pc ( margins @ 24 vs 23 pc – despite company investing heavily in A&P – A&P spends were up 24 pc YoY )
PAT – 150 vs 136 cr, up 10 pc – due higher tax rate vs LY
India business volume growth @ 8.7 pc ( 85 pc of total business )
International business constant currency growth @ 11 pc – led by MENA, SAARC regions ( 15 pc of total business ). There was a sales slowdown in CIS region
Brand wise growth rates in Q1 –
Navratna + Dermi Cool grew by 27 pc ( due harsh summers )
Zandu Healthcare grew 11 pc
Boroplus portfolio grew 4 pc
7 Oils in 1 grew 9 pc
Pain Management de-grew 7 pc
Male grooming de-grew 5 pc
Kesh King portfolio de-grew 15 pc
The Man Company + Brillare – grew 23 pc ( strategic subsidiaries )
Modern Trade + E-Comm now contribute to 11 pc of domestic sales
Expecting a harsh winter this FY due to the La Niña effect this year
Company aspires to keep the double digit growth going in the Zandu Healthcare portfolio. Key drivers behind this growth should be – Zandu’s brand equity, first mover advantage in various Ayurvedic products, aggressive A&P spends, 02 WHO GMP compliant manufacturing facilities
Hopeful of Kesh King coming back to growth territory wef Q2 ( however – the whole premium haircare oils category continues to remain under pressure ). Kesh King has greater rural salience. If the rural growth picks up, this should augur well for Kesh King. Also the competitive intensity is coming down in this space ( Indulekha and Patanjali are the main competitors )
The Man Company – has started making profits. Brillaire is still in investment phase. The combined revenues of Man Company + Brillaire in FY 24 were around 225 cr. The profitability of this portfolio will only improve once it scales up meaningfully ( say 2-3 yrs from now ). This yr, company is aiming for 275 cr sales from this portfolio. Among the two, Brillaire is growing faster than the Man Company due smaller base
Demand trends in July have been encouraging
1/3rd of Kesh King portfolio’s sales come from shampoo ( rest from Hair Oil )
RM prices continue to be soft – aiding gross margins
Seeing descent demand pick up in the rural Mkts
Tax rate for full FY should be around 10-11 pc ( same for next FY ). It was higher in Q1. Should moderate going fwd
Company is doing all it can to revive the Kesh King + Male Grooming portfolio. ( investing very heavily behind these brands )
Overall size of Kesh King portfolio is around 300 cr / yr
Amortisation for FY 25 should be around 90 cr. For next two FYs – should be around 85 cr and 80 cr respectively
Full FY EBITDA margins should be better than LY ie > 26 pc ( despite aggressive A&P spends )
In-organic growth continues to be an integral part of company’s growth strategy ( specially given the strength of balance sheet )
Disc: initiated a tracking position, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation
HDFC Bank- we understand your world (16-09-2024)
did HDFC Bank make a mistake by merging with HDFC Ltd?
Bajaj housing finance is trading at 6x P/Bx. May be euphoria.
The valuation after merger has dramatically shrunk for both HDFC companies.
The SME portfolio (16-09-2024)
My entry price is also in the 280s. Are you indifferent towards H1 FY25 results? Do you wait for 2-3 quarter’s results to decide your next course of action?
The SME portfolio (16-09-2024)
But the problem with most of the SMEs is they will runup a lot before the actual results.
Portfolio of high rish investor (16-09-2024)
Among my pick best stock for long term hold
- Kaynes technology…electronics / semiconductor.
- All e technology…software/ AI/ ML related stock
- Oriana power…solar EPC company.
- Premier energy…solar module
- Windlas biotech…pharma api/ generic/CDMO
Fratelli Vineyards Ltd – A successful business transition in play? (16-09-2024)
Hey Aditya, so if you go through the above text, they’ve informed that out of the 150 odd crores of revenue in Q1 about 100 cr came from the trading business (66% that is) and 50 Cr is the wine revenue. Yes the trading business was for different products unrelated to wines, per se (various agri and non-agri commodities). No prior relation between the 2 companies, Fratelli pvt. ltd. was acquired by tinna trade.
Emami – FMCG Available at Low Valuation (16-09-2024)
Emami Ltd –
Q1 FY 25 concall and results highlights –
Revenues – 896 vs 814 cr, up 10 pc
Gross Margins @ 67.7 vs 65.4 pc YoY
EBITDA – 216 vs 190 cr, up 14 pc ( margins @ 24 vs 23 pc – despite company investing heavily in A&P – A&P spends were up 24 pc YoY )
PAT – 150 vs 136 cr, up 10 pc – due higher tax rate vs LY
India business volume growth @ 8.7 pc ( 85 pc of total business )
International business constant currency growth @ 11 pc – led by MENA, SAARC regions ( 15 pc of total business ). There was a sales slowdown in CIS region
Brand wise growth rates in Q1 –
Navratna + Dermi Cool grew by 27 pc ( due harsh summers )
Zandu Healthcare grew 11 pc
Boroplus portfolio grew 4 pc
7 Oils in 1 grew 9 pc
Pain Management de-grew 7 pc
Male grooming de-grew 5 pc
Kesh King portfolio de-grew 15 pc
The Man Company + Brillare – grew 23 pc ( strategic subsidiaries )
Modern Trade + E-Comm now contribute to 11 pc of domestic sales
Expecting a harsh winter this FY due to the La Niña effect this year
Company aspires to keep the double digit growth going in the Zandu Healthcare portfolio. Key drivers behind this growth should be – Zandu’s brand equity, first mover advantage in various Ayurvedic products, aggressive A&P spends, 02 WHO GMP compliant manufacturing facilities
Hopeful of Kesh King coming back to growth territory wef Q2 ( however – the whole premium haircare oils category continues to remain under pressure ). Kesh King has greater rural salience. If the rural growth picks up, this should augur well for Kesh King. Also the competitive intensity is coming down in this space ( Indulekha and Patanjali are the main competitors )
The Man Company – has started making profits. Brillaire is still in investment phase. The combined revenues of Man Company + Brillaire in FY 24 were around 225 cr. The profitability of this portfolio will only improve once it scales up meaningfully ( say 2-3 yrs from now ). This yr, company is aiming for 275 cr sales from this portfolio. Among the two, Brillaire is growing faster than the Man Company due smaller base
Demand trends in July have been encouraging
1/3rd of Kesh King portfolio’s sales come from shampoo ( rest from Hair Oil )
RM prices continue to be soft – aiding gross margins
Seeing descent demand pick up in the rural Mkts
Tax rate for full FY should be around 10-11 pc ( same for next FY ). It was higher in Q1. Should moderate going fwd
Company is doing all it can to revive the Kesh King + Male Grooming portfolio. ( investing very heavily behind these brands )
Overall size of Kesh King portfolio is around 300 cr / yr
Amortisation for FY 25 should be around 90 cr. For next two FYs – should be around 85 cr and 80 cr respectively
Full FY EBITDA margins should be better than LY ie > 26 pc ( despite aggressive A&P spends )
In-organic growth continues to be an integral part of company’s growth strategy ( specially given the strength of balance sheet )
Disc: initiated a tracking position, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation
Rossari Biotech Ltd – Can growth justify expensive valuation? (16-09-2024)
Basis some scuttlebutt – I can assure you that the container freight rates are going to normalize sooner than expected. However unless the traffic resumes through the Suez canal, they are not going back to the 2023 levels