Hii Everyone
I have recently started studying Gold Finance companies
I will be glad if someone could explain me that why Gold Loan Companies tend to have lower P/E multiple compared to other financing companies whereas they have the Gold as Collateral which is more Secure.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Muthoot Finance (03-09-2022)
52 week highs and all time highs strategy (03-09-2022)
Hello Hitesh Sir
As you gave your view about Pricol Ltd in Oct’21 at that time it was @107 and you suggested TGT 170-180 now it has run up to 170 and I am holding since then thanks for guiding us
Tips Industries Limited – Ready to RACE ahead! (03-09-2022)
Part of the reason why the listing of Tips films has taken so long is due to SEBI raising a query. However, this seems to be resolved. Still no update from the company about the listing date though.
Edelweiss Financial Services (03-09-2022)
I attended the AGM but as I was not preregister to ask questions( any one know how to preregister pls reply )
Speakers in the AGM we’re only praising the management and few with minor questions
Yes @gaurav_vimal it is looking complicated and some surprises
In may they disclosed they want to be debt free approx 2500cr by FY24 now the debt is 5500cr I don’t understand does anyone have knowledge above it pls explain
In 2016 cdpq buys stake in ARC at ×5 p/b valuations now they are giving it ×1.2 p/b valuation
Closing the ECFL think so look at IP and no info on retail credit business
Selling stake in Life insurance is not good they should not as growing 10+ years
Imo Showing the intrinsic value in IP they really want to show the market so they can get value push in valuation and raise some capital or QIP
I can be wrong but Imo they should look to demerge the credit business as market is giving the valuation for credit business there is a possibility market will rerate and then raise capital but (can’t be the option as they are degrowing and closing it )
Company need new DNA or professional management now
PSP Projects – Construction Company (03-09-2022)
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Investing Basics – Feel free to ask the most basic questions (03-09-2022)
As answers mentioned above LIC has major problems. I will try to list them as crisply as possible
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For decades, government used LIC as a last resort to boost the market whenever government wants to sell its stake be it IDBI/UTI or whatever govt enterprise in problem. So LIC is kind of last fund provider of funds to government.
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Please go through the comparison I wrote for Big 4 Life insurance companies and you can understand that LIC lags on all parameters. Size matters but growth and profitability are more important for market.
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As @Mudit.Kushalvardhan said the supply of shares is going to come. Remember LIC is a very large company(as an aprrox. comparision it’s balance sheet is as large as India’s Budget) with respect to Indian market. Considering above SEBI has allowed it exemption from 25% free float. But on some day all those shares are going to get in to market.
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LIC shareholders were expecting a premium listing but it proved a dud. Market has limited capacity in absorbing shares. So when expectations are negative and no one is willing to buy naturally share price comes down.
May be I will correct my answer on free float. Free float is a multiplier for negative expectations it multiplies negatively and vice versa.
Hope I have cleared the FF story
All the best.
Rushil Decor – Real Estate revival + MDF Adoption Play (03-09-2022)
Hi, Baltic Dry Index is an index for shipping freight for dry bulk materials such as steel, grains, coal etc. This is not the right index for tracking containerized freight which is used to transport MDF/HDF.
Ocean freight is classified into dry bulk vs containers vs tankers (liquids) as far as I know.
The right index for tracking ocean freight relevant to MDF/HDF is container freight indices such as this one - • Global container shipping rates 2022 | Statista
While container freights are also coming down MoM, they are still 4X the freights that persisted during Q1FY20-Q1FY21, the last annual period with significant import values.
I expect dry bulk freights to capitulate much faster than container freights going forward. This is because China RE Sector is slowing down alarmingly and China RE is the world’s largest consumer of dry bulk commodities.
KPIT – CASE (connected, autonomous, shared, electric) – Focused Automotive Play (03-09-2022)
Demerger from Birlasoft was done in 2019, before that KPIT has some hardware products. Post demerger management decided to concentrate only on core competence - CASE - software business. In the same line of thinking they don’t want to continue the uncertain / non-core business of sentient lab. Sentient was and is still a small R&D company without meaningful revenue and seems no point in thinking of royalty etc as of now.
This is my thought process of management thinking after tracking the company closely since 2020.
HBL Power: Signs of change (03-09-2022)
The last two days have been extremely eventful incase of HBL.
a) The announcement of award of Kavach tenders of around 660 cr.
b) Annual report.
The following is my reading:
Kavach order win is a vindication of a long journey of over a decade and the pain/struggles/mental and financial stress that a promoter/business owner goes through while working on something as complex as Kavach. What one does not also see are the numerous Kavach like projects which fail to see the light of the day. In my opinion the most important thing in this year’s Annual Report is the +ve announcement of Electronic Interlocking being ready for field trials:
On TMS:
In my opinion the most important thing in this year’s Annual Report is the +ve announcement of Electronic Interlocking being ready for field trials. EIS is another extremely complex system dominated by MNCs like Siemens/Alstom/Kyosan and Medha being the only Indian player.
On the direction of the company:
Looking at the investments that the company has made in TCAS/TMS/Interlocking/EV it is very clear that the revenue profile of the company could completely change in next few years. In all likelihood Electronics could overtake the revenues of the battery segment in few years.
On the battery segment the focus is on value addition and differentiated batteries with a constant reduction in the standard VRLA for telecom with increase in PLT. As expected PLT seems to be evolving as a major growth driver
The second growth segment in batteries is the defence segment and there are details sprinkled all over:
Submarine | Battery Type | Comments |
---|---|---|
Type 1 (Kilo class) | Manufacture and deliver | |
Type 2(HDW class) | Initiated Development | |
Type 4 (Scorpene) | Manufacture and deliver | |
Varunastra | Manufacture and deliver | |
Advance LW torpedo | Made progress to deliver development orders by FY24 | |
Advance LW torpedo | Made progress to deliver development orders by FY24 | |
Missile | ||
Thermal Batteries | Delivered and got repeat orderfor exports | |
Agni Prime missile | Delivered and supplied | |
Tanks | PLT batteries |
The most intersting thing here is:
and as always there are some long shots at Electric drive trains/P-75i
What is also interesting is this year’s AR is:
Nickel price fluctuated significantly during the initial days of Russia Ukraine conflict. It would be interesting to understand the inventory gains/losses this year.
In conclusion the Kavach order win and improvement in battery segment should ensure a healthy topline and bottom line performance over the next two years. This will give ample time and cash flow for business like TMS/EDT/Li-ion/Interlocking etc. to move forward. The next year’s budgetry allocation for Kavach is a key monitorable as that will ensure further order flows for Kavach as promised by the government.