any idea on the succession planning for supreme ind? was there any plan made by the promotors or talks of professional management? @basumallick sir?
Posts in category Value Pickr
My mistakes with the stock market (31-08-2022)
Yes watching news for stocks long-term is a sin, i made big mistake in future retail news boomed like court case favour to future and reliance in pipeline acquired immediately felt down. Lesson learnt font trust news and always but with stoploss
My mistakes with the stock market (31-08-2022)
Can you explain the point 3 -4 and what is mistake or is the regret you felt or its real mistakes?
Sandeep’s Long Term Concentrated smallcap portfolio( Learnings and Mistakes) (31-08-2022)
No change in the portfolio.
However I would like to share some mistakes I have made during my investing journey. Hopefully it will be helpful to anyone interested.
I’ll start with the one which lost me most money
-PTC india Financial services-
1st buying date | selling date | loss% | size in portfolio when sold | average holding price | average selling price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jul-18 | Mar-20 | 45% | 44% | 15.5 | 8.5 |
Investment thesis-Let me start with a little background. I had seen PFS trade in 40s .so when it had fallen to around 15 and dividend of Rs 1.2 per share I was interested. The thinking was that the dividend will keep the share price from falling too low a classic case of low downside and substantially higher upside and so I thought.
When I was analyzing the company in 2018 it had a lot of legacy bad loans which pertaining to 2012-2015 era, due to which the provisions were very high . The PBT was 529 Cr of which 150 Cr was provisions and the market cap was around 1000 Cr.
I was hoping with resolution of bad loans the provisions will come down and in turn PAT will increase and with it the dividend, even with low AUM growth. Already dividend yield was 10% any further increase in dividend yield will surely increase the share price.
However what I didn’t know that bad loans don’t resolve so easily, every other quarter there was an unexpected spike in provision , the resolution dates for bad loans kept going further to the future, new bad loans appeared .
I could never predict how the quarter results will turn out .
Every concall the management gave new dates for future resolution of bad loans , AUM growth didn’t translate to net profit due to high provisions and management had new reasons for why it was so(I don’t fault the management , maybe the business was tough but I have no capability to judge) .Finally during covid crash I sold my position at almost 45% loss. This was my largest position and my largest loss till date.
Learnings-
- If you can’t roughly predict how the company will do 1-2 year down the line , that means you don’t understand the business, stay away from the company. You should have a rough idea how the company will perform 1, 2 quarters into the future, so that and deviation is accounted for.
- I bought PFS when it had a PE of 3 and a dividend yield of 10% , today net profit is a seventh of what it was in 2017 and PE of 19. Learn to identify a difficult business and stay away from them.
-Turnarounds normally never turnaround . if a company is in bad shape make sure that the reason is not the company itself, maybe the company go lucky like PFS (it rode the infra boom of 2010-2015) and if it has seen bad days before.
I’ll add more of my mistakes in coming days
Thanks for reading
Ramana’s Portfolio – Feedback most welcome! (31-08-2022)
Which factors you consider or are helpful to you while making predictions?
Share your stock market mistakes and learnings (31-08-2022)
Thank you deleting the same
Tinplate – Blasting through volumes, cyclically (31-08-2022)
Thank you Vikas for the reply .
I spent some time looking in to their numbers , and it looks really good to me .
You are right either Market knows something which we don’t know or may be FIIS,DIIs consider this as a cyclical pay for now (short term thinking) .
I tend to believe as you said in your replay “it is a consumption theme” . So taking a position on this Tomorrow
From my past experiences my biggest winners were the companies which got in to the portfolio when market ignored it (Laurus , Gael etc bought in 2018 ) , on the other side I have my losers as well where market was never willing to give a higher multiple (Glenmark) .
I think i will find out which way this goes
Ramana’s Portfolio – Feedback most welcome! (31-08-2022)
Looks like a decent portfolio of growth oriented companies. My prediction is it should do 19 to 25 % cagr over the next couple of years.
Saregama India Ltd: India’s premier music publishing label (31-08-2022)
so till now , saregama did not get the revenues from youtube for music used in shorts?
Share your stock market mistakes and learnings (31-08-2022)
There is already a thread for this. You can delete this thread and post your reply in the same