Rain is going to make a sudden move when the actual global businesses start to break even and the debt bonds are repaid.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Deepak Fertilizers and Petrochemicals (17-11-2015)
Good post,
Disc: I hold the stock from the IPO days.
The big triggers are govt. regulated, if it does, there is huge value to be unlocked. These guys are powerful business and political men. All your hypothesis and arguments are capped due to regulations and Farmers issues
Thomas Cook India-Will it move like Warren Buffet Stock (17-11-2015)
thanks for the perspective.
As investors, we rather have the Driver locked down for a certain period of time - a classic demonstration of the alignment in the IT sector - a sector where EBIDTA margins rarely go beyond 5% here is Ajit who believes we can get 8% margins - additionally he has been able to attract sellers willing to sell - to him. I agree this deal leaves a bit of after taste - but lesson learnt and course corrected, hopefully.
Disc: Invested
Torrent Pharma Ltd (17-11-2015)
Why are u frustrated? If u want to sell a stock then only u want higher prices. I would be happy if Torrent pharma keeps range bound till the time I decide to sell it. Its only then that I want it to go up.
If the financials keep playing out the prices will inevitably follow. Markets often take a long long time to accord proper valuations to some companies. Case in point is Ajanta Pharma where inspite of stellar growth figures back in 2010-13 period the stock remained confined to PE ranges of 6 to 12.
Thomas Cook India-Will it move like Warren Buffet Stock (17-11-2015)
I agree with you - but these type of stuff always begin with a small step and keeps escalating - as the immmediate terms become bigger and juicier. Not something I would worry about still - but I have to be cognizant of this. best is to build into MoS - to each his own.
Lloyd Electric & Engineering Ltd (LEEL) (17-11-2015)
I use its split AC since more than a year. It works just fine.
According to me, all the ACs are almost of the same quality with marginal difference in features. What differentiates companies is branding and the distribution network. Price yes, but to some extent only. I see a lot of people taking advice from the local sales and service guys when buying ACs. So, distribution network and timely availability of the products is very important. Also, margins provided to retailers are very important. If you see in cell phones, Micromax and Samsung give hefty margins to retailers, which motivates them to push their products.
Lloyd Electric & Engineering Ltd (LEEL) (17-11-2015)
Agree with you that profit from consumer durables has declined due to increased advertising expenses.This can be a good thing if it creates brand value in the long run; so I was intrigued and watched all their commercials from their website.In my opinion there is no wow factor for the aspirational consumer,they seem to be going for the value for money positioning.Air conditioners and tvs are products where consumers tend to push their budget a little and go for the more aspirational product.We also need to judge the quality of the products to estimate the long term potential,so we might need to know from someone who bought Lloyd's products.
I feel that the market got carried away with the retail tag and overpriced this.I would keep tracking this and when I am more convinced by their branding exercise I might consider it.
MPS Ltd (16-11-2015)
Thanks and kudos to @ayushmit, @rohitbalakrish_, @Donald, @Mahesh and @desaidhwanil for sharing MQ, BQ, MQ&A, relevant extensive data points and clear analysis.
For me, the facts that count, though already captured and pretty basic, are below.
+ves:
1. Value migration: MPS is operating in a space where it is facilitating the value migration. Moving to digital and platform based processes.
2. EPS assertive efforts: a) Investments in platforms. b) Efforts towards (more comprehensive portfolio) core vendor selection and success in that. c) Acquisition
3. High Entry Barriers: High Customer confidence and realtionships
4. High dividend Yield
-ves:
- High client concentration is a big (Management even thinks of this as an asset) one for me.
- keyman risk remains as well before we see how Rahul performs.
As we all know MPS has to be seen as a movie
Disclosure: Invested, roughly 10% of my portfolio.
Cupid Ltd – Helping the world play safe! (16-11-2015)
Looks like few institutions have started accumulating it and its time to Sit Tight. Few observations about the company.
Its operating in oligopoly industry having huge scalability.
Has assets light model with 60%+ ROE and potential high dividend yield in future
Has high Moat as it is highly cost competitive with cost price as low as 25% of its only competitor (FHC). Operating cost is also significantly lower.
Promotor is an intelligent fanatic with very sound Knowledge about industry and looks to be an honest person
Growth ahead: Female Health Company(FHC) sells ~60 mn units and cupid current rate is ~15 mn. Cupid is in the process of doubling its capacity to 40 mn and looking at its cost competitiveness & market penetration, it is quite possible that cupid may be able to reach to the annual run rate of 40 mn units in 3-5 year time. Profits could be higher than sales growth due to higher margins in FC, management efforts to increase automation & efficiency, operating leverage etc.
Valuation:Still trading at just 20x FY16E with zero institutional holding. We all know that if market starts believing in the growth story with excellent return ratio. PE multiple has no limits (e.g Eicher, Page, etc)
So Patience to Hold would be key in this story.
Kaveri Seeds – Temporary thread for clarifications (16-11-2015)
Strongest El Niño in 18 Years announced.
Typically El Niño years coincide with deficient monsoon rains.
Read this link for more details
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/el-nio-of-2015-hits-alltime-record-strength-for-a-1week-period
Disclaimer:- Sold off Kaveri with huge loss