The bank is raising GBP 3.3 bn in rights issue and recently the top management has purchased shares from market. Stock continues to make new lows.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Apollo Tyres- Do not understand the valuation (13-11-2015)
It is not just Apollo Tyres, shares of all tyre companies are traded at very low PE. Have a look at MRF.
There are media reports that this is due to Chinese dumping of CV tyres in Indian market.
Page industries (13-11-2015)
I agree on Samir's comment, though he didn't name but looks likely as he was always skeptical of Page's valuation... I have a MOSL report(2 month ago) which says that Q2 wouldn't be good for Page... but expects normalcy to return by 3Q16 as it has taken corrective measures based on their discussion with the management.
I don't think 30% growth is a realistic assumption with this soft consumer demand.
Page industries (13-11-2015)
It is trading @40x FY17 assuming 30% growth but 10k (30-35x) would be ideal price to enter if someone trusts the story. I clearly missed selling at 16k and now it is too early to buy. It seems even Samir Arora is short on this given his comments on Diwali day. Hawkins at no growth, Jubilant at very low growth can trade at huge valuations this can clearly sustain 30-35x forward PE.
REPCO home finance – another Gruh in the making? (13-11-2015)
5 yrs is a good time to make enough from this and exit. Example of HDFC bank growing at 12% is not correct since the whole banking credit is not growing well and the bank has clearly articulated that they would grow at market growth + few%. It is very much possible that HDFC bank could start growing at 20%+ when economy recovers fully.
Repco is in a sweet spot because it is ready to capture market with adequate organisation/culture, experience and capital. It doesn't need to grab market share from others. It can only pick and choose clients to grow for the next few yrs.
Granules India Ltd (13-11-2015)
http://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/people/person.asp?personId=52851913&privcapId=12752639
Harsha Chigurupati (son of promoter) seems to have taken a back seat turning from executive director to non-executive director.Any reason for this?Is there any change in management succession plan?
NCL Industries – Resumption of growth? (13-11-2015)
My understanding was also the same that shutdown was in Q1 and hence was expecting betr nos. from cement biz.
Anyways lets wait for the mgmt. commentary.
Apollo Tyres- Do not understand the valuation (13-11-2015)
All
I am new to Valuepickr, however must say very impressed with the input people provide, and all most all shares I had identified and increased were mentioned by one or the other on this forum
Just want to write about Apollo Tyres.
Few Details
Market Cap 8000 Cr.
Debt Approx. 1200 Cr.
Enterprise Value 9200 Cr.
Last Year 2015 EBITDA 1800 Cr.
EBITDA in 2011 972 Cr. and continuous growth year on year.
Profit for 2015 977 Cr.
Profit in 2011 440 Cr. and continuous growth year on year.
Current plans of the company
Setting up a plant in Hungary to supply in High value European market.
Increasing capacity in Chennai for radial tyres
company has closed down its South African loss making operations resulting into lower turnover but higher margins
Market Dynamics
Rubber prices are at its lowest resulting into higher margins, which may be difficult to sustain
Chinese imports of commercial vehicle tyres is increasing at an alarming speed and has now increase to around 10% of the total market for commercial vehicles and Passenger cars, it may spoil the margins in the short run, as Govt has not done anything to protect the interest of Tyre companies
While the plant in hungary can be an opportunity and can increase substantial margin, however it is only a marginal player and any adverse market condition can wipe it out
Ownership
There is a clear succession plan in the company and chairman son is being groomed to take over the chairman position
It is number 2 player in the Indian market and as the market grows it should benefit major players
I had bought this stock and it form 10 percent of my portfolio however in huge loss,
Would need expert advise from senior members of what had gone wrong with this stock, which has givens CAGR growth of more than 40 percent in last 5 years is being quoted at less than 10 PE
NCL Industries – Resumption of growth? (13-11-2015)
NCL #s looked decent on the first look. I am waiting for MD's comments on plant maintenance shutdown. My understanding is that the maintenance happened in Q1. On the contrary, if it had happened in Q2, these are excellent #s. Need clarity here.
Boards division has performed very nicely. EBIT : 7cr vs 5cr last quarter. This is operating at ~35% EBITDA margins. This is a positive development though minor.
Raising 320cr through NCDs could be looked upon as positive depending on the borrowing cost. Their current borrowing cost stands @ 12%.
I believe the utilization levels were fairly decent this quarter(assuming plant maintenance happened this quarter). If the company was going through sub-60% levels for the 2nd quarter, the management wouldn't have confidently come out asking for capital for expansion.
Waiting for MD's comments on maintenance shutdown.
Thanks,
Ravi S
Disc - Invested from lower levels.
Canfin homes ltd (13-11-2015)
Hi Amitayu,
PNB housing on its website provides annual reports for last 5 years which are an excellent read and provide detailed analysis of the sector and company.
www.pnbhousing.com/about-us/financial-highlights/
PNB Housing is the fastest growing HFC and has been growing even faster than canfin over the last few years with loan book rising from 3000 crores in 2012 to 22000 crore currently at a CAGR of 60% plus.
Immense potential now given that Carlyle fund recently bought a significant equity in the business - Carlyle were early investors in both HDFC and Repco housing - both of which they made an excellent return..
Check their H1FY16 outstanding performance - www.pnbhousing.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/H1-Results-2015-16.pdf