Contrasting opinions make the market.One has to have his own conviction.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Thomas Cook India-Will it move like Warren Buffet Stock (03-11-2015)
IKYA is the only listed company( part of Thomas Cook) which does logistics services for e-com companies like Amazon. You can just imagine the impact of this in the coming years. But I dont know when they are going to improve the ROE and margins. See the capex incurred in the latest year. It is huge.
Rgds
AIA Engineering Ltd (03-11-2015)
Mining companies are not incurring new capex because of the fall in commodity demand and same applies to other segments like cement, aggrgators,etc where AIA operates. In India, I am betting on Coal and cement capex/demand but when it will turn up we dont know.
AIA has twin advantages : Increase in demand/cycle upturn and conversion of forged media to Chrome ( this is more apparent now as it brings down cost of miners as so many miners are trying to remain afloat. The first sign of worry comes when mines start closing down.
With a cash of Rs 900 cr and stable profits AIA can be able weather the storm. Nothing to worry and add more when it comes to attractive levels and stay put for the next 2-3 years as it very difficult to predict upturn in cyclicals.
Shilpa Medicare -Racing away on the Oncology API highway! (03-11-2015)
Shilpa filed 4 DMFs during Q3CY2015 (July - September) and now has filed 24 DMFs in the US market. For H1FY16, the company has filed 5 DMFs in total and is a sharp increase compared to 3 DMFs filed in FY15. The brief details of these 4 DMFs is give below:
- PEMETREXED DIPOTASSIUM (gAlimta, innovator - Eli Lily): Filed on September 14, 2015. Exclusivity expiry - Oct 17, 2015 & Patent Expiry - July 24, 2016. Used for initial treatment of advanced nonsquamous non-small cell lung cancer. ANDA - Tentative approval - App (Teva subsidiary), Accord, Hospira, Glenmark (also filed for ANDA). DMF Filers - Teva, Chongquing, DRL, Sun, MSN,Emcure, Chemwerth, Reliance, Glan, Neuland. US Sales of USD 1.23 billion and worldwide sales of USD 2.79 billion (2014). It seems to be a big product.
- ANASTROZOLE (gArimidex, innovator - AstraZeneca): Filed on September 18, 2015. Patent has expired. Used a non-steroidal aromatase-inhibiting drug approved for treatment of breast cancer after surgery, as well as for metastasis in both pre and post-menopausal women. Approved ANDAs - Accord, Apotex, Cipla, DRL, Fresenius Kabi, Mylan, Natco, Roxane, Sandoz, Santos Biotech, Sun, Teva, Zydus. Seems to be a me too product with lot of players already in the market.
- DIMETHYL FUMARATE (gTecfidera; innovator - Biogen): Filed on September 19, 2015. Exclusivity Expiry - March 27, 2018 & Patent Expiry - April 1, 2018. Used in treatment of multiple sclerosis. DMF Filers - DMF Filers - Glenmark,Arevipharma, Yabao Pharmaceutical , Mylan, MSN, Biophore, DRL, Honour Lab, Chongqing Huapont. US Sales of USD 2.40 billion (2014). Its a blockbuster product but there are quiet a few DMF filers.
- CLOFARABINE (gClolar; innovator - Genzyme [acquired by Sanofi]): Filed on September 25, 2015. Exclusivity expired Patent expiry - Jan 14, 2018. Used for treatment of treating relapsed or refractory acute lymphoblastic leukaemia. DMF Filers - Apicore, Olon, Scinopharm, Emcure, MSN, Biophore, Synbias. Sales of USD 80 million (ICICI Report). Seems DRL has filed ANDA has a para IV litigation was filed against it. It seems a small but limited competition product.
Out of the four DMF filing done by the company during the last quarter, two are multibillion dollar opportunities. The company seems to have developed a good pipeline for the US market. However, it all depends on execution now as and when it gets USFDA approval for its API and formulation plant.
INDIGO ready for takeoff :airplane: (03-11-2015)
Hi @Vivek_6954. I see you're quite optimistic about the company. I personally like the model however the management gives me jitters. They seem to be so money oriented. I would suggest reading the two links below in particular(they have been posted earlier). I just get very bad feeling about this. In the long term, this is a potential value destroyer mainly because of the people who are running it. I disagree when you say that the company is in safe hands.
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/ipo-swot/interglobe-aviation-ipo-scan-by-vs-fernando_3789761.html?utm_source=ref_article
https://www.sptulsian.com/article/86170/interglobe-aviation-indigo
Personally, I just wouldnt be able to sleep peacefully at night knowing that my money is being managed by these people.
Profit lies where noone is watching: some turnaround plays (03-11-2015)
GNFC turn around. Pat at 52cr vs 30 cr loss.
Bharuch plants profits double. Dahej plants loss halved. Also got 60.58 cr insurance claim but that is not recognized in this quarter. It is a definate multibeggar.
AksharChem (India) (03-11-2015)
@Apandey, I exited AksharChem quite some time back n have not been tracking it since. Towards the end I got a feeling that the whole de-merger game was played not to create any great share holder value but to create 2 more equal Co.'s for the 2 brothers to inherit !!
Byke hospitality – Truly asset light? (03-11-2015)
We must keep in mind that YoY, net profit has jumped from 3.27cr to 4.87cr (Sep15). This might look impressive. However, because of equity dilution (1:1 bonus in Oct14), EPS has dropped from 1.63 to 1.21 (for Sep15). Or did I miss something?
I agree that a bonus is not a real equity dilution because it doesn't bring in any money to the business. However, it still does slice the EPS in half.
Lactose India – Unique Play on Lactulose & Contract Manufacturer for MNCs (03-11-2015)
I would appreciate if you can explain us for such a low RM cost. In fact in Q2, if we adjust inventory increase, net cost of RM is 4 as against total sales of 97! Such kind of value addition can happen only in fraud or real jewel. Not sure but need more understanding about same. I have gone through Audit report for FY15, no where company has mentioned about its input. Also, some issue about getting in advance revenue for capacity lending/building from MNCs. While per se do not see problem as give indication of strong bargaining power, but fail to understand Q2 result. Would appreciate if you can give some idea about raw material, input output norm, market price of end product and raw material as nothing is available in annual report.
Discl: No investment
Entertainment Network India Limited: Tuning in for gains (03-11-2015)
Thanks, Hemant for pointing out. In fact, I tried to create it under "stock story" category but looks like I have inadvertently created duplicate thread. I am not sure how to move this post to the existing thread. Request the moderator/admin to please move to the appropriate thread.