Did a little bit of digging in about TAC Infosec:

1. Topline of the company is 11.6Cr out of which 31 percent is employee cost which translates roughly to 3.7Cr. LinkedIn lists 210 people as its employees out of which around 80 of them are overseas, with the US forming a good portion of the overseas employees. How can one manage such a workforce in a technically niche domain with a sum of 3.7Cr? Bro is on a global noble mission so charity work naturally comes to the mix.

2. Couldn’t find a single techtalk from Trishneet Arora on the internet. I am from the same field(not cybersecurity or Infosec per se) and I find this surprising. He doesn’t want to scare us mortals or rather bask in the glow of his unparalleled brilliance

3. Their CTO has an experience of just 4 years, he was appointed the CTO just a few days back and, around the same time their CFO resigned. Investors would hope he is another prodigy in the making.

4. Watched Mr.Arora’s interview with Raj Shamani here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JiNHP5ZwiaI
   Tall Assertive but unsubstantiated Claims(TAC):

5. He initially says he reported the ATM withdrawal scam and then later he says he helped the govt find those people. Does his own withdrawal there.

6. Hard to believe the US government took help from a little known Indian ethical hacker, same with Google. It’s like aliens are in the US and they dial Chacha Chowdary, Avengers etc can’t help.(Fans please excuse the pun)

7. Claims “Almost every Indian Startup is his customer”. Doesn’t reflect in the topline though. Maybe he is returning the charity favour mentioned earlier.

8. Claims his product is the highest priced in the entire market. According to McKinsey it will be more than a 200 Billion USD market by 2025 and eventually could present a $2 trillion opportunity. With such a huge TAM and having the highest priced product why is the revenue only 11Cr? Isn’t that a joke by itself?

9. In the interview, he says there will be a crash in the market Worldwide soon. I thought he was an infosec guy. Doesn’t ascribe the crash to anything that has anything to do with economics but just his gut.

10. Earlier in the interview he emphasises on how important data is, I think he even quotes the ‘Data is the new oil’, but then changes TAC in between and then delivers the most profound business gem: Business data se nahin chalta he, feeling se chaltha he. I have a feeling ki this business nahin chalega. I could be wrong, it’s just a feeling.

11. The interview is full of rhetorics, there was not a single claim that can be verified. I will stop here commenting about the interview for the sake of brevity.

12. A few days back I watched Joe Rogan talk to Ryan Montgomery(ethical hacker) watch it here;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_tZ7i1j3Tg and contrast this with the earlier interview. Felt like comparing a toaster to a time machine.

13. Read an article on their blog, this one here. Good details but the horse’s mouth is here. It looks like a rehash.

14. There is not a single compliance certificate listed on the website. There is no pricing information either.

15. Vijay Kedia is not listed in screener.in, maybe he has very less stake.

This also puts all the 35 under 35, 30 under 30, 40 under 40 in a bad light, even Raj Shamani. He has a host of these business awards but not a single techtalk or a tech certificate to show.

The current CTO has a degree from Institute of Information Security and they may actually ‘have’ a product. I could not find any information on the web that can be used to ascertain that Mr.Trishneet Arora is what he claims or about his product. Things don’t add up for me. I am from Bangalore and we had a drone guy named Prathap who made tall claims but was never able to substantiate, Mr.Arora may actually be the foremost expert but I didn’t find enough reason to believe.

P.S: Forgot to add this. I have a good idea about how NPCI secures UPI transactions, still I asked somebody knows all the intricate details about UPI implementation. He said his claim is like saying – “Since I own NIFTY index fund I am driving India’s economy forward.

Promoter Mr. Milind Manohar Padole has sold a 0.89% stake through an off-market transaction. Following the sale, his stake in the company has reduced from 42.11% to 41.22%. While there could be various reasons for this sale, if a trend of continued selling develops, it may become a cause for concern and warrants close monitoring.

Disclosure: Invested at lower levels and may have a biased view.

Indian Oil

The Largest Refining Company in India. The company owns 11 refineries across India with a total capacity of 80.60 MMTPA. It possess 32% of total refining capacity of India

Two of its refineries in Chennai are owned by its subsidiary Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd of which the company owns 52% stake
The company’s flagship R&D center at Faridabad is one of Asia’s finest in downstream petroleum R&D, with ~930 active patents. It has 4 decades of experience in lubricants formulations, refinery process and pipeline transportation
Crude Imports
The company fulfills its crude oil requirements by importing crude from across the world. It sources 65% of its needs from Middle East, followed by Africa (27%), North America (4%), South-East Asia (1%), Europe(1%) and Central Asia (1%)
Expanded renewable energy capacity
to 243 MW, with a target of 31 GW by 2030.

Commissioned 3,598 new EV charging stations in FY 23-24, taking the total to 9,059.

Hydrogen initiatives include a 10 KTPA Green Hydrogen electrolyzer facility at Panipat and the deployment of India’s first hydrogen fuel cell buses.

Refining & Production:

Daily crude oil processing of 1.6 million barrels, with a gross refining margin (GRM) of $12.05/barrel, down from $19.52/barrel YoY due to global volatility.

Highest-ever petrol production at 12,555 TMT, reflecting an 8.5% YoY increase.

Throughput in refineries stood at 73.3 MMT, while product sales reached 97.55 MMT. Pipeline throughput achieved a record 98.63 MMT.

Infrastructure Developments:

Commissioned key projects, including RLNG infrastructure at Barauni and Paradip refineries.

Expanded crude basket from 247 to 253 grades, enhancing operational flexibility.

Fuel & Retail Network:

Increased retail fuel stations to 37,697, capturing a 45% share of PSU fuel outlets.

LPG network expanded to 12,883 distributors, with record LPG pipeline throughput surpassing 95.8 MMT.

Sustainable Initiatives & Green Fuel:

Achieved 15% ethanol blending in petrol and introduced India’s first ETHANOL 100 fuel at 400 outlets.

Established India’s first commercial-scale Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) plant at Panipat, supporting the SAF blending mandate.

Financial Performance:

Total revenue for FY 23-24 was ₹8.66 lakh crore, with EBITDA at ₹74,182 crore.

PAT stood at ₹39,619 crore, delivering a strong ROCE of 20.17%. Operating cash flow was ₹68,097 crore.

IndianOil’s strategic investments in hydrogen, biofuels, and EV infrastructure, alongside its strong refining and retail network, position the company to capitalize on India’s energy transition while maintaining robust financial performance.

Capex projects

Crude oil and gas reserves

the company has proven and developed reserves of 5053 TMT of crude oil

and gas about 6413 million cubic meters

the company has proven and undeveloped reserves of 7092 TMT of crude oil

and gas about 15737 million cubic meters

Assumptions:

Conversion: 1 TMT of crude oil is approximately equal to 7.3 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE).

Current market price: Assuming a crude oil price of $80 per barrel (as of September 2024) and a natural gas price of $3 per million British thermal units (BTU).

BOE reserves:

Proven and developed: 5053 TMT * 7.3 BOE/TMT ≈ 37,000 BOE

Proven and undeveloped: 7092 TMT * 7.3 BOE/TMT ≈ 51,800 BOE

Total BOE: 37,000 + 51,800 ≈ 88,800 BOE

Estimated value:

Crude oil portion: 88,800 BOE * $80/BOE ≈ $7.1 million

Natural gas reserves: 15737 million cubic meters

Conversion: Assuming 1 cubic meter of natural gas is approximately equal to 37.3 BTUs

Total BTUs: 15737 million cubic meters * 37.3 BTUs/cubic meter ≈ 587 billion BTUs

Estimated value: 587 billion BTUs * $3/BTU ≈ $1.76 billion

Therefore, the estimated value for the natural gas portion of the reserves is approximately $1.76 billion.

Total estimated value: $7.1 million (crude oil) + $1.76 billion (natural gas) ≈ $1.77 billion

Investment in public companies that are traded

Name of companies Market cap value

Crude Throughput & Petrochemical Processing

• Crude Processing: The company achieved its highest ever crude throughput of 73,308 Thousand Metric Tonnes (TMT) in 2023-24, surpassing the previous best of 72,408 TMT in 2022-23.
• Naphtha Processing: The Panipat Naphtha Cracker processed 3,111.8 TMT of naphtha, exceeding its previous record.
• Pipeline Network: Operating over 19,500 Km of pipelines, with an annual throughput capacity of 124.4 MMT for oil and 48.73 MMSCM per day for gas. They expanded this network by adding 2,180 Km of new pipelines.

2. Petrochemical Investments

• Petrochemical Intensity Increase: Plans to raise the Petrochemical Intensity Index from 6.1% to 15% by 2030, with investments of ₹1,20,000 Crore. Projects worth ₹30,000 Crore are under implementation and another ₹90,000 Crore under feasibility study.

3. Energy Transition & Renewables

• Battery Space Collaborations: Formed a joint venture with Phinergy Ltd. (Israel) for aluminum-air battery technology and partnerships with Sun Mobility (battery swapping) and Panasonic Energy (battery manufacturing).
• Renewable Energy Targets: The company aims to install 31 Gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity, from solar, wind, and hydroelectric sources, to diversify its energy portfolio.

4. LNG & Gas Sales

• LNG Terminal Operations: Operated a 5 MMTPA LNG terminal at Kamarajar Port, Ennore. Gas sales reached 6.5 MMT in 2023-24, marking a 49% growth over the previous year.
• Natural Gas Pipelines: Continued expansion in the natural gas sector with 1,300 Km of new pipelines.

5. Retail & Infrastructure Expansion

• Retail Outlet Expansion: Commissioned 1,260 new retail outlets, 322 CNG stations, and 40 CBG stations in 2023-24, for a total of 37,472 retail outlets, 2,110 CNG stations, and 85 CBG stations. They also solarized 10,655 retail outlets, increasing their solar capacity to 165.57 MWp.
• EV Infrastructure: Installed 3,601 new EV charging stations, reaching 9,059 in total, with 16 battery-swapping facilities added.

6. LPG Sales & Market Share

• LPG Business: Achieved sales of 14.17 MMT, growing 2.5% over the previous year, and maintaining over 45% market share in India. New bottling plants were commissioned to support this growth.
• Aviation Fuel Market: Maintained a leadership position with a 58% market share and 4.8 MMT sales.

7. Petrochemicals Market

• Market Position: The company is India’s second-largest petrochemicals producer, with sales reaching 3.1 MMT, its highest performance to date.
• Capacity Expansion: It targets a capacity increase to 13.6 MMT by 2030. Notable projects include new ethylene glycol and polypropylene units and a ₹61,077 Crore petrochemical complex in Paradip.

8. International Expansion & Trade

• International Partnerships: Signed agreements with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and TotalEnergies for long-term LNG supply. The company also exports petroleum products to neighboring countries like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal.
• LNG Imports: Importing 65.18 MMT of crude oil in 2023-24 from diverse regions and planning future LNG imports from countries like Qatar.

9. Sustainability & Future Outlook

• Net-Zero Commitment: The company is heavily investing in transitioning to sustainable energy, aiming for net-zero operations. They plan to increase their share of India’s energy mix to 12.5% by 2050, with renewables and biofuels making up a quarter of that.
• Energy Demand in India: The company’s plans align with India’s growing energy demand, which increased by 7.3% in 2023. The Indian government’s focus on renewable energy and natural gas growth supports these initiatives.
• The company wants to increase its refining capacity from 80.8 to 107 units. This represents an estimated increase of 32.4% in refining capacity. By 2030
• Additionally, the company plans to expand its pipeline network from 20,000 to 30,000 kilometres. This translates to an estimated increase of 50% in pipeline coverage. By 20230
• The company seems to be increasing its refinery capacity at 6% per year and wants to increase refining margins by incoperating petroleum value added products
• The long piupelines gives it a advantage over other companies including PSU
• The government support will act as a great stabilizing factor however inflexeblity of the government and socialist tendency example the subsidized gas of the government which the company is yet to receive compensation are limiting factors it remains to be seen how this will affect the future
• Increase in renewables and other energy sources the success remains monitorable over the long term as they have to compete with other established players
• It is noted the company has enormous strengths in brands and distribution
• The exploration and discovery part of the company will continue to supply about 10 % of the company
• The ability of the company to process different grades of crudes is a monitorable thing in the future
• Further contingent liabilities that might force the company to pay up in case any adverse event occurs
• Expansion of cpcl and Indian oil Cauvery basin refinery is facing local protest and headwinds
• Expansion of electric vehicles and the solutions to be provided the companies retail outlets are a key monitorable
• Company is vulnerable to any accidents or terrorist attacks that can impact production
• Unwanted privatization can be a hindrance so is sovereign interference

Contingent liabilities

You can start by reading Maurece schiller

@Ashish_Khandelwal1 , could you disclose your position in this stock? Do you own any?