UPDATE:

Sold off Godawari power, Steel strips wheels and RACL. Bought Gujarat themis biosyn, and Coastal corp.

Reason:
Consolidation while churning. People can have a tea party and share tit-bits, after buying 50 companies tell of 5-6 nice gains stories. I share my full list with full details, always full disclosure. The name of the game is cagr at folio level, rest is nice for educational purpose only, no warranty.

Exited RACL (cagr 85%), 25% growth promised by management may be deferred a bit due to european issues

GPIL (cagr 4%) is going to grow so slowly that it might look to be going backwards compare to previous year. China is trying to re-balance economy away from infra/housing etc. which will put pressure on steel globally and also iron-ore. GPIL was focusing more on mining, but will need to re-focus on steel due to duties, this is an expensive (time and money wise) growth path. Cagr is low can be due to value-research portfolio service not considering the time-period when it had been sold off. This was one of my oldest, held/traded since 2017. (sold off between 2019-2021)

Steel strips (cagr -4%) has openly stated many times, they expect growth of only 10% this year. Capacities are full, exports have slowed and the new factory they had bought in auction is still no where in sight (this sale was signed almost 1 year ago, and may be final-final any day now and may kick share up). I was also waiting for kick of cheaper steel for margin growth and also lower taxes (they are paying 36% rate, maybe because of tax assets under older tax rules, which will hurt profits if written off).

Gujarat themis has announced since past 1 year already plans to 10x current size, over next 3 years, while their pharma fermentation is quite high margin and substitute for chinese imports. They plan to launch first new production block worth 4x current size by mid next year. No debt, cash flow funded only. I had previously invested in Guj themis, avg buy of 180, avg sell of 270, within 5 months, july to dec 2020. Something is seriously changing sales and margin profile for better since a year for Guj themis, they still have 20% capacity left, so PAT may double even before the new plant starts, so wait for growth may not take so long. They have already done some capex but are saying only improving current plant and on some RnD unit (which they say is for new products). Promotors holding is 75% maxed already and they kicked out some korean company by buying them out 1 year ago.

Coastal corp was due to niel bahal, maybe his thesis can work, risk is that exports data is not showing that high growth in marine products and ethanol margins are dependent on govt giving cheap rice and buying expensive product. Still there is margin of safety if not growth.

Coastal has 4 triggers, but will take 1-2 years for them to realize

1. Should recover from corona shock, summer barbeque season has peak offtake, current PAT is 15 Cr, post all growth it should be 150 Cr, it was 45 Cr in FY 2019 before the shock. On the other hand, it seems to be more shocked than 2x sized peer Apex foods which has done better with margins quite stable, Apex ebitda is flat, while Coastal has declined by 66%

2. Prawns processing expansion has just operationalized in june, best part of season sales may show up in results in a months time. Expansion was by 80%. More expansion in progress and will be adding 40% more. Apex was able to expand by 100% and looks like they already did bumper sales in Q1 hence numbers are better. On the other hand, Prawns global dynamics does not suit India, China is testing imports for covid and US is getting supplies from many sources.

3. New distillery will be starting by mid next year, and contribute 50% to profits at usual ethanol margins. These margins may be under pressure.

4. Promotor has been buying steadily and big chunks of shares, and is financing 50% of expansion by personal loans, also getting subsidies

If all goes ok, PE should fall to 3 from 30, in 1.5 years and normal PE should be 10 at least, hence the upside is 3x or at least 2x.

PS: Sticking for years with Laurus cagr is still 212%, while peak is well past. Some of the biggest gains were 2x or 3x in a month and value-research cannot show cagr more than 999%, like Borosil renew, Aarti drugs. And these were 20-30% of folio, not tea-party kind.

PPS: opened IDFCF bank account online, full functional within 2 min, and loving the experience so far! Nil charges for everything and clear disclosure, with good interest rate!