Nasdaq

We’re in wave 3 of C.
Minimum expectaions for wave 3 are that it has to be equal to wave 1. That has been done and now it is extending.
Next watchout level would be 161.8 % of 1 i.e. near 10250.
(in worst case scenario, wave 3 can go upto 261% of 1)

After we complete wave 3 , we might get a tradeable rally in wave 4. Now size of the bounce in wave 4 depends upon the where we stop in wave 3.

Once we complete the bounce in wave 4 , we might again slide down in wave 5. Wave 5 either can be equal to wave 1 or wave 3.

Many a times wave 5 turncate , means they don;t achive the target.

How deep wave 5 will go would depend upon the extent of bounceback in wave 4 as size of wave 5 would be counted from the top of the wave 4.

Other way to make a guestimate of extent of full fall is to calculatate the % fall in wave A , generally wave C happen to be equal to wave A ( shown in red lines here)

(Indian index might bounce back ,might give a tradeable rally when US Indices are give their wave 4 bounce )

Keep in mind, these are dynamic numbers. Calcualtions keep changing as per the index (price movement ).

What is certain ?The certainitiy is that we’re in a bear market and bottom is yet to be made.

Disclaimer: These are probability studies based on historical patterns of price behavious in different asset classes . They can go wrong . And we can’t estimate the timeline of different levels in these studies.

A good question. We did not buy it (Paypal ) then because :

a) We never tend to buy when a stock falls , we wait for a base-formation .That means that supply at lower level has been absorbed and there’s less scope for further fall.

b) As mentioned several times before we are expecting further fall (at least 10-15% ) in US markets, hoping that we might get it more cheaper.

We would get back on your stock-queries in some time …no hurries …more you wait, more cheaper they get.

Hi,

Hasn’t paypal already touched a bottom of 67.58 sometime ago? Any reasons to not buy it then?

Also, it would be great if you can give your insights into Inmode, Microsoft, EPAM systems and Nasdaq index? I am asking for a lot of names but your insights are very informative. So it would be great to get your feedback.

Great US Comapnies Stocks Situation

Some high quality businesses are now trading between 1-1.25X NTM PEG ratio .
And look at the PE of these historically- proven high growth, future-ready global companies stocks and compare what we’re paying in India for brick & mortar companies ( a point to ponder).

These stocks may further go down in coming months but they are gradually coming in buy-zone (don’t hurry ) – the people who have interest in US market should keep a watch and can wait for bottom and base formation ( to make an entry in these stocks , not-so-technical savvy investors can use Stage Analysis method ).

Other point here is to highlight the importance of 40 Months Moving Average – how long term investors could have exited these at the break of 40 MMA (green line) and they could have avoided the pains of further drawdowns.

Also would like to draw your attention to the fact that these are monthly charts – the recent drawdown does not look severe in these charts but if you check closely prices have come down near to half of their peak price ( again not a reason to buy ).

Paypal
Can it come between 65-75 , we will definitely buy it for long term.

Google
Expected to touch 80 —lower line of channel . Anywehere between 75-85 , we feel this can be good for long term.

Nike

Can it come to near Covid lows ?Near 60s?

VISA

Can it come near to Covid lows or near October top ie. 150!

Disclaimer These are personal views. These are nowhere recommendations. These are probability projections and things can go worst or better than the projections given here. Do your own studies.