I see a pattern again…@stageinvesting was suspended and we are fortunate to get him back since Oct1…someone starts disputing his findings and he replies and that is construed as argument and they suspend him. If one vehemently and violently disagree, don’t read the thread…move on
Posts in category Value Pickr
Investing Basics – Feel free to ask the most basic questions (02-10-2022)
Is there any better way to reach out to company for any query so I could understand company better? I was trying to reach out to following company but no luck in getting response. Appreciate your input.
Knowledge Marine & Engineering Works Ltd – compliance@kmew.in, info@kmew.in
Kotyark Industries Ltd – info@kotyark.com, “kipl7722@gmail.com” <kipl7722@gmail.com>
Note: I have collected email from respective company Annual letter.
Investing Basics – Feel free to ask the most basic questions (02-10-2022)
Is there any better way to reach out to company for any query so I could understand company better? I was trying to reach out to following company but no luck in getting response. Appreciate your input.
Knowledge Marine & Engineering Works Ltd – compliance@kmew.in, info@kmew.in
Kotyark Industries Ltd – info@kotyark.com, “kipl7722@gmail.com” <kipl7722@gmail.com>
Note: I have collected email from respective company Annual letter.
StageInvesting +Elliot Waves (02-10-2022)
Well, please keep in consideration that we’re practicng EW for last 15 years .
We did not have a 2nd look on the chart posted by you because in very first look :
a) We could see clear overlaps
b) Any serious practitioner would use colored bars to check the internal wave-counts as well as he won;t plot these on futures-prices.
c) And AB marking on this kind of structure did not make sense as either they should be 1,2 or W,X,Y etc etc
First we thought of ignoring your post as it had so many flaws.But then understood that it is by someone who’s either someone new or is trying to learn. So we tried to help.
We saw the original chart before commenting.
We take our thread, and responses very seriously. Please try to understand. If you want to undertand and can give a counter-point with correct understanding of the concepts , you are always welcome.
Otherwise , let’s not waste each other’s time for the sake of argument and corrupt this thread.We won’t be replying to any irrelevent post in future.
Embassy REIT: Is this “Blackstone” promoted REIT is real diamond? (02-10-2022)
The prices of Embassy REIT may be have declined mainly due to selling of Units by Promoter group Blackstone entities. Further, increase in interest may also impact adversely in short, the currnet hike in interest rate is due to higher inflation rate, which shall be good for REIT sector in long term, in my view. While finance cost would increse due to higher interest, the increase in lease from inflation would result in higher surplus cashflow for distribution in next 2-3 years. There could be some other reasons like change in office demand due to WFH culture. If that factor is playing, then i would be very cautius for my holding. We would get that answers probably in second quarter results. Till then i would continue to hold by investment.
Disclosure: I consider InvIT/REIT as my fixed income portfolio. Embassy REIT is my second largest holding after RBI Bonds. Hence my view may be positively biased. Not A SEBI registeed advisor. No trade in last 3 months. Not recommending any investment actions.
Opportunity in GOI 10yrs BONDs (01-10-2022)
(post deleted by author)
StageInvesting +Elliot Waves (01-10-2022)
Haha ignore the fib numbers written on them, maybe you’re looking at fib numbers and assuming they are wave counts.
StageInvesting +Elliot Waves (01-10-2022)
Good arguments, but here are are our thoughts
Well your argument is valid if we limit ourselves to last 2-3 years. But let’s go back to last 20-25 years and see what was average PE mutiple.Covid was a black swan event and is only one data -point. To take a better prespective ,we need more data points as well as need to include the falls that were secular in nature i.e. due to macro factors .
Last 15 years bull run across the globe were due to Fed funding as well as Central Bank across the globe were printing money and funding was at very low or negligible cost.
If we go back to normal days of interest rates i.e. before 2008 , with a normal liquidity in the markets, the PE levels were very different . So may be liquidity driven PEs need to readjusted.
(Additional conundrum- Now add Adani to Nifty and see what happens to PE argument )
Well , Indian IT companies are service providers to US & European companies. If they go into recession, the business of these companies gets affected.
Also there’s another well proven fact that in a bear market, weak become weaker. So we feel that IT index would copy the downward trend of Nasdaq index.
Last point :Support and resistances are meant to be broken ,but they need time ,lot of efforts and lot of macro factors.
Have a look at S & P 500, Nasdaq – June low was considered to be a strong support as well as pre-Covid levels were supposed to be resistance -zones- all have been broken.
Let’s keep a track – these are interesting times.
StageInvesting +Elliot Waves (01-10-2022)
Well ,there are few issues with this count
In reality , it violates the very basic rules of EW :
a) Your wave 2 and 4 overlap
b) Wave 3 does not have 5 waves ,so it seems to be a corrective move and not the impulsive one
c) Wave 5 -wave iv and wave ii seems to be overlapping
And one little suggestion, always try to count on spot prices as there are lot of fluctuations in future prices due to premium -movement