Attended the Aditya vision AGM yesterday.

I had to ask couple of questions. But there was only one investor who asked all the questions. That investor was none other than our @ayushmit bhai, he had come so well prepared and asked some 15/20 odd questions which covered most of the investor questions on AVL. He came so prepared for the AGM and had infact mailed them the questions to management in advance, which is something to learn for future AGMs.

I was surprised with management response, they answered all questions one by one patiently for at least 30 to 45 mins. Even Ayush bhai got surprised as he never thought they will give so much time to one investor. I became like a management interview and Q&A session, much to the benefit of other shareholders.

It will be great if Ayush bhai shares his experience here.
I could not take the notes.
Hope company uploads the AGM video on you tube for learning to all.

One question which was most interesting by @ayushmit as he asked out of FY 22 sales of 900 cr , how much is the contribution of old 42 stores ( up to FY 20) and new 45 stores. Management said around 850 cr i.e close to 90 -95 % of FY 22 sales were contributed by old stores up to FY 20. So new stores are yet to contribute in big way and every year they will open 25 new stores as per investor ppt. This gives lot of comfort on long run way of growth at least till FY 25.

Disc : Invested and views are biased.

Possible Quantification of the risks if they were to materialize, though these cases the outcome is not that simple.( from latest credit report)

Lets look at ED conviction rate, probability seems quite low purely statistically

Note that similar cases ( mining) are being in news against other groups as well by govt agencies in recent times.

Price pattern of UM hasnt been great in last few months and understandable given flat volume growth reported in Q1, newsflow over global economic/capex intensity,

It is a retail heavy holding stock, regular selling by in active promoters. Here is a glimpse of institutional holdings/ strong hands

What is factored in current price is the key question – Q1 annualized they are at 12 PE, with a near debt free balance sheet and value add capex going on, tecnicals – hovering near 200 MA support.

If we were to look at recent export numbers – looks like good times ahead given strong QoQ volume growth ( note dataset is selective expprts to west world and aug data is partial given some lag – point is direction) – business performance with an eye to technical could be one of the ways for those invested

Invested

1. Commodity margin to be around Rs.30 level per kg in Q2. This is good as it is stable now at this level per Pankaj Poddar interview.

2. BOPET plant is live now. Next quarter we can see topline growth on both YoY basis and QoQ basis.

3. This quarter EPS will likely be subdued due to
   a. Slightly lower commodity margin (~3% overall impact)
   b. depreciation and interest for new plant
   c. inventory losses as raw material prices have corrected this quarter. (Another 3% maybe)
   d. Zigly losses as it has started scaling up. I would expect Zigly to be EBITDA -ve till FY24. (1%?)

How much these will be offset by higher speciality film volume (2%?) and higher sales in speciality chemicals is to be seen(1%?). Net net I expect a fall QoQ basis. (~5%). Q3 not likely to be impacted by 3a and 3c. And we should be able to see some contribution from new BOPET line.

4. Promoter purchase is surprising. Does it any way inhibit ability to do buy-back? Doing a buy back in next 2 quarters will be a smart move. If this hampers ability to do it – it will be pity. Given Euro weakness are they retiring some debt early? Maybe that.

5. The price is nearly 40% off ATH. All these are factored in and more IMO.

Note : Invested. No reco. DYOR.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/ojJ4u22mb8w

This news is about a threat to policy bazaar

Record date for Bonus issue is 13th October and hence ex date will be 12th October as per communication received from ICICI direct.