VQM owns 0.78 % of accelya kale - saw it in AR - built the position during FY 2015. I hold and am bullish too on it
Posts in category Value Pickr
Syngene International IPO – Views invited (07-09-2015)
Prashant.....Not only till FY07 but also go beyond till FY02 which you will find attached in Biocon ARs...If you want to go still further then refer IPO prospectus of Biocon filed in 2004 where you will find data till 1999....Its a real treat to study the company :
14 Years' Average Pure EBITDA margin (excluding forex effect) of 37.35 %....
10 Years' Average Pure EBITDA margin (excluding forex effect) of 36.50 %....
Post initial low scale (less than 100 cr.) high margin (43 % +) phase, once company went into 30s in EBITDA margins over last 8 years, average pure EBITDA margin (excluding forex effect) is at 33.77 %....
EBITDA's conversion to Net Cash Generated from Operations has been robust at 14 Years' average of 79.70 %, 10 Years' average of 70.78 % and 5 Years' average at 65.66 %....
Not only that but even EBITDA's conversion to Free Cash Flows (FCF) is excellent with 5 out of 14 years showing negative FCF with 9 Years' average positive EBITDA to FCF conversion at 50.72 %
If we go further to look at health of balance sheet over last 14 years, with a Gross Block addition of 920.19 cr., we have a cash surplus of ~106 cr. in the balance sheet.
Now this is the kind of investment opportunities which a long term investor loves to invest....we have a great history in front of us and with the management confident of continuing with this historical parameters of 30 % + margins, promise of low D/E of not more than 0.5 and an investment plan of 1200 cr. over next 3 years ---and this too from a management which exhibits great investor friendliness -- an example -- you have balance sheet published each quarter instead of half yearly requirement...
When I summed up all and looked at the future with just sustenance of 28 % + EBITDA margins, 50 % + EBITDA to OCF conversion, Asset Turn of just 1.1 post stabilisation of CAPEX and derisked business model because of focus on only NMEs, I fail to understand why this stock is still trading at discount to PI Ind. and Divis Lab on EV/EBITDA basis....Over next few quarters I expect majority of shares getting into the hands of pure long term funds and not remaining much with public category as with a free float of only 12.2 % equity capital or 2.44 cr. equity shares, at current market price of 320, only half the amount invested by funds in parent Biocon, can absorb the entire free float of Syngene......study of history of PI Ind as well as Divis Lab is a perfect case study for this as I remember once fund interest picked up, public category shrinked from ~11 % to 7-8 % with a simultaneous rerating in PI ; similarly in Divis, once fund interest picked up, public category shrinked from ~20 % to ~6 % with a simultaneous rerating.
Let's keep our fingers crossed and hope the anomaly gets corrected soon by Mr. Market.
Rgds.
Discl. - Invested.
Note -- This is not a buy/sell/hold recommendation and is just part of a general discussion.
Syngene International IPO – Views invited (07-09-2015)
Prashant.....Not only till FY07 but also go beyond till FY02 which you will find attached in Biocon ARs...If you want to go still further then refer IPO prospectus of Biocon filed in 2004 where you will find data till 1999....Its a real treat to study the company :
14 Years' Average Pure EBITDA margin (excluding forex effect) of 37.35 %....
10 Years' Average Pure EBITDA margin (excluding forex effect) of 36.50 %....
Post initial low scale (less than 100 cr.) high margin (43 % +) phase, once company went into 30s in EBITDA margins over last 8 years, average pure EBITDA margin (excluding forex effect) is at 33.77 %....
EBITDA's conversion to Net Cash Generated from Operations has been robust at 14 Years' average of 79.70 %, 10 Years' average of 70.78 % and 5 Years' average at 65.66 %....
Not only that but even EBITDA's conversion to Free Cash Flows (FCF) is excellent with 5 out of 14 years showing negative FCF with 9 Years' average positive EBITDA to FCF conversion at 50.72 %
If we go further to look at health of balance sheet over last 14 years, with a Gross Block addition of 920.19 cr., we have a cash surplus of ~106 cr. in the balance sheet.
Now this is the kind of investment opportunities which a long term investor loves to invest....we have a great history in front of us and with the management confident of continuing with this historical parameters of 30 % + margins, promise of low D/E of not more than 0.5 and an investment plan of 1200 cr. over next 3 years ---and this too from a management which exhibits great investor friendliness -- an example -- you have balance sheet published each quarter instead of half yearly requirement...
When I summed up all and looked at the future with just sustenance of 28 % + EBITDA margins, 50 % + EBITDA to OCF conversion, Asset Turn of just 1.1 post stabilisation of CAPEX and derisked business model because of focus on only NMEs, I fail to understand why this stock is still trading at discount to PI Ind. and Divis Lab on EV/EBITDA basis....Over next few quarters I expect majority of shares getting into the hands of pure long term funds and not remaining much with public category as with a free float of only 12.2 % equity capital or 2.44 cr. equity shares, at current market price of 320, only half the amount invested by funds in parent Biocon, can absorb the entire free float of Syngene......study of history of PI Ind as well as Divis Lab is a perfect case study for this as I remember once fund interest picked up, public category shrinked from ~11 % to 7-8 % with a simultaneous rerating in PI ; similarly in Divis, once fund interest picked up, public category shrinked from ~20 % to ~6 % with a simultaneous rerating.
Let's keep our fingers crossed and hope the anomaly gets corrected soon by Mr. Market.
Rgds.
Discl. - Invested.
Note -- This is not a buy/sell/hold recommendation and is just part of a general discussion.
Sensex Likely To See 25000-30000 Level in coming18 Months (07-09-2015)
I just go by the P/E numbers on the BSE/NSE website where the E is weighted TTM earnings.
The analysts typically talk about (Price)/(1 year forward expected earnings).
I don't even want to guess about whether the denominator was found using some spreadsheet formulae or just to suit their target .
Sensex Likely To See 25000-30000 Level in coming18 Months (07-09-2015)
I'm trying to calculate the Sensex Price/Earnings ratio myself.
The Price is obviously available from the live Sensex values, however I can't find the Earnings number from any source. I want to know if there is any source that provides the Financial Year updated (Quarterly updated would be brilliant ) earnings of the 30 sensex companies.
1) I don't want to individually go through the Financials of all 30 Sensex companies to add up the earnings (unless ofcourse there is a spreadsheet/tracker readily available which auto-populates data).
2) I know the P/E is available from the BSE website and I can just multiply the numbers, but that doesn't solve my purpose.
Would greatly appreciate if anyone has information on how to do this.
Many Thanks!
PS: I'm asking this because I can't seem to rely on people talking about the Sensex earnings. A few days back, in an interview on CNBC with an Ambit Capital analyst, the analyst said Sensex FY 16 earning should be 1550 which gives the Price of 25000 a P/E of 16.
However, BSE shows sensex P/E to be almost 20 currently, so if the analyst is correct that's discounting Sensex earnings of 20% for the remaining 9 months. Can't believe that the numbers are correct or the analyst is being stupid projecting earnings growth >20%
Mutual fund investment first time (07-09-2015)
- All Mutual funds have option of buying directly. You have to visit respective mutual fund website
- for investing more than Rs 50 K you need to have complied with KYC ( Know your customer ). It's one time process. Since you are already investing in stocks, you might be having PAN.
- Valueresearchonline and Morningstar.in worth visiting to understand about MF
Mutual fund investment first time (07-09-2015)
@sunilsurana Please find the answers
1. You can go to respective Mutual Funds website and buy those MFs. Most of the MFs are having an option to buy directly e.g. https://investeasy.reliancemutual.com/loginonline/
2. There are may sites like Monecontrol which can provide you research on MFs. http://www.moneycontrol.com/mutualfundindia/
You can select the funds based on the Risk you can take like Equity Diversified, Balanced, Debt
3. You can do your own research
Mutual fund investment first time (07-09-2015)
Hi,
I know this forum is dedicated for discussing companies but please pardon me as I have always invested in stocks and have no experience with mutual fund. I am planning to give some allocation to MF hence need help. I do not want to go thru broker and want to invest directly. Can someone please help me with below queries
- What is procedure to opt for mutual fund directly. Can I do it online or customer care?
- I have no idea at all of any mutual fund. What is the procedure for selecting any fund?
- Which are good funds which I should start with IDFC, ICICI, HDFC, Birla?
What you are buying in this major correction ? PF readjustment! (07-09-2015)
I sold Kaveri Seeds after marginal gains after 3 years. Will add in next few quarters if ground situation improves.
Tracking Orbit Exports( consistent growth QoQ) if it drops further. Premco Global and Paushak already in my PF, will add both of these if they go down from these levels.
Unichem laboratories ltd (07-09-2015)
Now its price increase even though mkt is down about 16% from high and this counter is gaining what is the reason behind the sin ?