Price is not a choice or an option but a mandate and is decided by the SEBI rules which i have mentioned in my earlier post in this board . Promoters have no say in deciding this price except that they can influence the egm date - the effective date would be 30 days before the egm date .
Posts in category Value Pickr
Santosh Portfolio ..feedback/suggestions from members (29-08-2015)
about page, i agree its not a buy at this level. for some one who has been holding from a lower levels, i dont see any reason to switch. some points. i will keep it simple since most of us know page very well.
1. no meaningful competition.
2. some of the other names like bluedart,Gillette, jubilant foodwork etc trading at 100 plus pe. this is despite repeated under performance in several quarters. HUL with flat growth is trading at 50 pe. what it implies is that one can get out with minimal damage even in the event of bad result. ( page had its first bad (relatively ) quarter in q1 and the price didn't fall much.
3. in this overvalued market (even after this correction), where are other compelling buys in the high quality space? ( business with predictable earnings, scalability etc)
4. pays 40% of net profit (consistently) dividend. usually high growers dont give that kind of dividend.
5. i have seen tons of companies/instances where reported eps growth is a lot higher than sales growth. you can call it operating leverage, margin expansion or whatever. but this cant go on. in case of page, the profit growth rate has always been equal (more or less) to sales growth. this is one thing i like about page.
Paushak Ltd. – Alembic’s agrochemical business (29-08-2015)
Thanks Parth!
When you talk about the market size being 50000 MT, are you talking about domestic market or international market?
Also, your post confirms the previous info that the current capacity stands at 250MT/month. Although the further expansion will probably be gradual?
Were you able to get answers to any other questions from the list we had prepared?
Santosh Portfolio ..feedback/suggestions from members (29-08-2015)
Hi Aniket,
Thanks for pointing me to that wonderful article. I read it for the first time when Mr Khandelwal posted it and I'm still in awe after reading it for the second time.
Now, allow me to point out few things hiding in plain sight (at least that's what I believe).
This, I believe, applies to anyone looking to invest in Page at current price.
The professor says -
"Now, all that one has to do is to figure out it makes sense to buy the stock or not by calculating the expected return and comparing it to other opportunities available to you at that time."
In one of my previous posts I tried to arrive at a conservative eps after 10 years for page, which came out to be Rs 1140/share. For the sake of convenience, let's consider it to be Rs.1200/share.
The prof. mentions that he uses exit multiple of well below 20x. For Page, let's say it is 30x.
So we arrive at a conservative(?) price of
rs. 36000/ share. That's a 2.5x from current position. That's approximately a CAGR of 10% for next 10 years.
I believe, a new investor certainly has better opportunities available in the market.
Now, for those who hold from lower levels (I know you savvy folks have made great returns).
The professor says -
"One last point: If something is working for you, and you don’t have cash and if something else turns up and you like it a lot, then you should sell what’s working for you only when what you want to buy will give you a significantly higher expected return. Otherwise, just hold on to your great businesses and let them compound your capital for you."
Now, I agree that I don't hold page so it's really not my stock to worry about. But for the sake of learning, pray tell me folks, do you see any opportunities in the market that can provide significantly better returns than a 2.5x in next 10 years?
P.S. - Aniket and other boarders, I hope I'm not being over-persistent with my point. I just want to learn and improve myself.
Santosh, apologies for diverting from the main topic consistently.
Paushak Ltd. – Alembic’s agrochemical business (29-08-2015)
Hey guys, I attended the AGM, just some facts from the AGM:
1) The market for Phosgene derivatives in all is about 50,000 MT, whereas Phosgene Derivatives for Pharma Products are likely to be less than 20% of the total demand
2) Paushak has an annual capacity of approx. 3000MT which they may increase to 4000MT over the next 2-3 years (haven't chalked out any plans in particular).
Ramkrishna Forgings (29-08-2015)
@pjain Liked the write up. Thx. Can you pl compare RKFL with the other smaller peer - viz. MM forgings. They have marque clients in EU as well. Debt looks ok and valuations are cheaper. Of course, top line has been a bit flat last few qtrs but there is room for improvement. They came off a lower base and stabilising the expansion did a few quarters before. My guess is MMFL must be operating at about 75-80% util.
PS- got a small position in MMFL
Santosh Portfolio ..feedback/suggestions from members (29-08-2015)
Hi Nikhil,
W.R.T. your thoughts and my response, here is a far better articulation from my favourite Prof. on looking at valuations - the different metrics to apply when buying a stock and later when holding a stock - and when to execute sell decisions. I try to apply this framework to my investing.
http://www.safalniveshak.com/email-exchange-with-sanjay-bakshi-on-valuations/
Have a good weekend.
BR,
Aniket.
Aurobindo Pharma (29-08-2015)
Aurobindo Pharma receives FDA Approval for Raloxifene Hydrochloride.
29 Aug 2015
Auro received the final approval from USFDAfor Raloxifene Hydrochloride Tablets 60mg.
It has estimated market size of US$404 Million for the twelve months ending June 2015 according to IMS.
This is the 45th ANDA to be approved out of Unit VII formulation facility in Hyderabad, India for
manufacturing Oral Non-Antibiotic products.It now has a total of 210 ANDA approvals.
Raloxifen.pdf (76.2 KB)
NIIT Ltd (29-08-2015)
Thanks Mehnazfatima For Your Analysis ...Yesterday Md Of NIIT Was On Cnbc & Very Bullish on Their Skill Devlopment Area World Wide & They Are Very Confident Under Leadrship Of Mr Patwardhan Company Will Turn Around...
NIIT Ltd (29-08-2015)
Thanks Mehnazfatima For Your Analysis ...Yesterday Md Of NIIT Was On Cnbc & Very Bullish on Their Skill Devlopment Area World Wide & They Are Very Confident Under Leadrship Of Mr Patwardhan Company Will Turn Around...