Rajesh Sir is very bullish on Cellecor gadgets.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Deepak Fertilizers and Petrochemicals (01-09-2024)
Could you please how was the 950 crore PAT arrived at?
Sudarshan Chemicals – Can it colour our portfolio green? (01-09-2024)
Thanks @mantis1 – I read the latest analyst transcript and found it puzzling that Management doesnt give volume growth numbers nor capacity utilisation figures at all. Any approximations available for these?
Also is Heubach insolvency impacting their production say in Europe? for example in Heubach India its BAU with no impact on production
Disclaimer
Hitesh portfolio (01-09-2024)
@ChalakPadiku ( I like the VP ID name. )
As of now I don’t have any new names on my radar of any recent listings which qualify as future winners. But that’s maybe because the IPO pricing is quite aggressive in tune with markets at all time highs.
However one company I have liked and bought recently has been BMW Industries. It is a steel converter and listed in 2021 ( not too recent to consider it as recent IPO). It has had a string of good quarterly and annual numbers. It’s a small cap company with 1600 crore market cap but has good basic characteristics of a company. High promoter (74%) holding, debt reduced in 2024, improving ROEs, improving sales, with steady margins, good addressable market, and management does presentations and concalls which makes it easy to track this company. Capex is coming on stream . If someone is interested in this company doing research is relatively easy because of the availability of resources at the click of a button of the computer. ( but if one is contemplating investing in such small caps, it is absolutely essential to do proper study and get enough conviction to hold during tough times. Just because someone like me or someone else has bought should not be a reason to buy)
Best thing to focus is good quality IPO coming during bear markets. That is when we get to choose really good companies listing at reasonable or cheap valuations.
The other aspect related to IPO I talked about once was that stocks that cross post IPO highs was a way to play momentum with appropriate stop losses.
Hitesh portfolio (01-09-2024)
This is perfect statement. Beyond a certain point, we as investors have to take such things in our stride.
In fact, some times these higher taxes are counter productive. Few investors will certainly end up holding stocks for more than a year, to keep their taxes at lower level and May end up loosing some of the gains and in turn GOI will also get lesser taxes from such investors – Lesser Gains and Hence Lesser taxes.
Over a period, once Taxman understand that, these increased taxes are not adding much value, they may feel otherwise, but till that point, an investor have to pay what ever taxes are required to be paid.
Ranvir’s Portfolio (01-09-2024)
Yes … the margins in the EV segment are lower. In single digits
But the growth in this segment is explosive. U can imagine – their growth is tied to the growth of 2W and 3W – EVs in India. This is the fastest growing segment of the Auto mkt and is likely to remain like that for the foreseeable future
Hitesh portfolio (01-09-2024)
Your post reminds me of myself in my early investing days. I will quote an anecdote to highlight this point. I had bought TTK prestige at the then price of around 115-120 levels in 2008-2009, when I found it attractive considering the runway for growth and valuations ( it was then available at 10 PE). In the rally post 2008-09 everything was going up and the better quality stocks were going up even more. I saw levels of around 180 within 2-3 months of my purchase and with a thinking similar to your own, booked my profits of 50% on my investment. A doctor colleague had also bought the same thing on my advice at same levels. He did not sell. In next 2-3 years stock price went up to levels of 6500, a 50 bagger and my doctor colleague was able to sell at those levels. I got 50% returns while he got a 50 bagger inspite of the stock idea being my own idea. Those kind of episodes tend to teach you valuable lessons if you can analyse your mistakes.
Windlas Biotech – Pure play CDMO currently at ~1.1x sales (01-09-2024)
The Q1 results were a testimony to the abilities of the management. While the employee cost had been a one off high expense which should get streamlined accompanied by the depreciation of the new facility, the prospects for the year seem to be rosy.
CDMO business consistently hitting above 100 Cr mark
The injectibles facility on track to add to the business margins
The trade generic business poised to be a strong business
Management that seems to be good capital allocator
2-3 years down the line the prospect of exports once they gain momentum with filings
One of the most important things is that the facilities are compliant with the strictest of Norms and in case some policy comes out, Windlas might become an indirect beneficiary.
Is one of the biggest holdings and have done transaction in last 30 days
Garware Hi-tech films (Earlier Garware polyester) (01-09-2024)
Garware Hi Tech films –
Q1 FY 25 results and concall highlights –
Revenues – 474 vs 380 cr, up 25 pc
EBITDA – 130 vs 89 cr, up 78 pc ( margins @ 27 vs 20 pc – massive margin improvement )
PAT – 88 vs 44 cr, up 100 pc
Cash on books @ 493 cr
Revenue growth driven by continued growth momentum in SCF and PPF business
Architectural SCF witnessed high growth with introduction of new products like SpectraPro and DecoVista
IPD division witnessed recovery in both speciality and commodity segments. Focussed approach on high end products like lidding films, PCR/floatable shrink films is leading to margin improvement in this segment
Segment wise sales mix –
Consumer Products Division ( SCF + PPF ) – 67 pc of revenues
Industrial Products Division ( VAP + Commodity products ) – 33 pc of sales. In the IPD, 66 pc of sales come from Value Added Products like – shrink films and other special IPDs. Rest 33 pc revenues come from commodity products
Overall, at a company level, VAP:Commodity products ratio @ 88:12 vs 83:17 in Q1 LY ( massive improvement towards VAP )
Opened new Garware Application studios in tier 2/3 cities like – Nahsik, Faridabad, Agra, Jammu, Srinagar, Azamgarh, Noida, Dehradun, Bhopal and Ahmednagar
Aggressively ramping up engagement with – Influencer community, car experts, Architects
Company is the only manufacturer of professional grade PPF in India
Company has one of the world’s largest single location SCF capacity
Domestic : Export sales ratio @ 24:76
Company’s new capacity of 300 lakh Sq Ft / annum is expected to begin production in Q2 of FY 26. Company is expected to spend Rs 125 cr for the said expansion. Company is currently running on full capacity and likely to do so till the new capacity comes up. This facility should have a revenue potential of between 300-350 cr / yr
Even within the SCF, company is increasing the sales of higher end – higher UV and heat rejection films. Margins in these films are 20-30 pc higher than the absolute basic SCFs ( with much lower UV and heat rejection properties )
Far higher margins in Q1 are also because Q1 is exceptionally good for SCFs
Company has the highest degree of vertical integration when it comes to making SCFs,PPFs – this gives them a big edge over the Chinese / Korean competition
Interms of revenue contribution in the CPD, max revenues come from SCF – Auto, then PPF, then SCF – architectural. SCF-architectural is currently growing at the fastest rate. Also, the runway for growth is the highest in the architectural segment because of under-penetration
Despite Q1 being a seasonally strong Qtr, company is confident of maintaining EBITDA margins of > 20 pc for full FY 25
Company is very confident of clocking 2000 cr and 2500 cr of sales for FY 25 and FY 26 !!!
Rough break up of company’s CPD sales between Branded : White Label ( sale to OEM etc ) stands at 50:50
Disc: holding, inclined to add more, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation
Ranvir’s Portfolio (01-09-2024)
Garware Hi Tech films –
Q1 FY 25 results and concall highlights –
Revenues – 474 vs 380 cr, up 25 pc
EBITDA – 130 vs 89 cr, up 78 pc ( margins @ 27 vs 20 pc – massive margin improvement )
PAT – 88 vs 44 cr, up 100 pc
Cash on books @ 493 cr
Revenue growth driven by continued growth momentum in SCF and PPF business
Architectural SCF witnessed high growth with introduction of new products like SpectraPro and DecoVista
IPD division witnessed recovery in both speciality and commodity segments. Focussed approach on high end products like lidding films, PCR/floatable shrink films is leading to margin improvement in this segment
Segment wise sales mix –
Consumer Products Division ( SCF + PPF ) – 67 pc of revenues
Industrial Products Division ( VAP + Commodity products ) – 33 pc of sales. In the IPD, 66 pc of sales come from Value Added Products like – shrink films and other special IPDs. Rest 33 pc revenues come from commodity products
Overall, at a company level, VAP:Commodity products ratio @ 88:12 vs 83:17 in Q1 LY ( massive improvement towards VAP )
Opened new Garware Application studios in tier 2/3 cities like – Nahsik, Faridabad, Agra, Jammu, Srinagar, Azamgarh, Noida, Dehradun, Bhopal and Ahmednagar
Aggressively ramping up engagement with – Influencer community, car experts, Architects
Company is the only manufacturer of professional grade PPF in India
Company has one of the world’s largest single location SCF capacity
Domestic : Export sales ratio @ 24:76
Company’s new capacity of 300 lakh Sq Ft / annum is expected to begin production in Q2 of FY 26. Company is expected to spend Rs 125 cr for the said expansion. Company is currently running on full capacity and likely to do so till the new capacity comes up. This facility should have a revenue potential of between 300-350 cr / yr
Even within the SCF, company is increasing the sales of higher end – higher UV and heat rejection films. Margins in these films are 20-30 pc higher than the absolute basic SCFs ( with much lower UV and heat rejection properties )
Far higher margins in Q1 are also because Q1 is exceptionally good for SCFs
Company has the highest degree of vertical integration when it comes to making SCFs,PPFs – this gives them a big edge over the Chinese / Korean competition
Interms of revenue contribution in the CPD, max revenues come from SCF – Auto, then PPF, then SCF – architectural. SCF-architectural is currently growing at the fastest rate. Also, the runway for growth is the highest in the architectural segment because of under-penetration
Despite Q1 being a seasonally strong Qtr, company is confident of maintaining EBITDA margins of > 20 pc for full FY 25
Company is very confident of clocking 2000 cr and 2500 cr of sales for FY 25 and FY 26 !!!
Rough break up of company’s CPD sales between Branded : White Label ( sale to OEM etc ) stands at 50:50
Disc: holding, inclined to add more, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation