I am hearing that China has shut down a lot of chemical companies to clamp down on pollution. Any views on Dynemic at 48?
Also looks like the promoter picked up a small quantity of 2000 shares today from open market. Meaningless but still something.
**The only questions are whether the capex is on track and if the company will manage to increase EPS above 9 in FY16? and will cash flows be positive?
Everything is good....but the company has no cash flow from operating activities which I find very 'putting off'. How can we invest if there is no cash flow from operations?
They are taking debt to fund everything.
Did anyone attend the AGM guys? Any updates?
The stock is holding up superbly in this volatile period. Some AGM notes would come in handy.
Check the latest AR. He's not in the top 10 investors. (And now the list includes anyone below 1% holding too). He could be holding a tiny part. That we would not get to know of course.
First of all apologies it was not 44 million but 44 cr.I tried finding cash flow from data which are shared in Q4 report. This was before annual report came out . Actual FCF for 2015 was 32 Cr and if you take last three avg FCF it comes out to be 39 cr.
with these Value per share comes (11% growth in FCF) out to be 1167 and with 50 % margin of safety -583
DCF is dangerous and very hard tool to value company .....you need to make assumptions and when there are regular capex it becomes more hard so only way out is averaging and using long term historical growth avgs. Ambika is more of consistent player so you can probably do this.
Hi Rudra,
Price erosion is always a very debatable topic and except for the pharma companies, I doubt anyone else knows about it accurately (it's an area where we should work on).
If you go through the article, it says 'Currently there is a limited competition for the product and the company can conservatively garner sales of US $50-60 million in sales for the 50 mg capsules' (would rather ignore what the journalists are writing and give more weightage to the analysts). The analyst is talking about 50 mg capsule while it is also availabe in 100 mg, 200 mg and 400 mg (http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/drugsatfda/index.cfm?fuseaction=Search.Generics&Mkt=1). I still dont know how to interpret it.
You will always find reports on negative reports on generics (may be propagated by the innovators themselves). Not exactly sure how serious they are about gCelebrex.
Ok.
All the best for your investing journey!
Hello drrakesh,
the newer patent was a mere extension sought by Pfizer. Refer this article for the full context of this.
Judge Allen invalidated the reissue patent for the same reason the Federal Circuit invalidated the original one — “double-patenting.” Pfizer had argued that, as part of the reissue, it had reclassified the patent in a way that made it eligible for a safe harbor that protects patents from invalidation on “double-patenting” grounds. But Judge Allen found that the reissuance process could not be used for that purpose, and the flaw was therefore “not correctable.”
Thanks Ankit.
As per this news article, pegs the generic market for Celebrex at $400 million.
"Lupin currently holds 14 per cent market share for Celebrex and expect $58 million sales from the drug with a 15 per cent market share"
However, off late, there are reports of adverse effects from generic Celebrex, read here. So it is debatable how easy it will be for Alembic to garner market share.
Hi Anil,
IMHO the link below can provide us insight that supply is not a concern yet as stock exists after taking into account local supply and exports.
http://www.supima.com/view-reports/supply-and-use/
The winds are favouring the Indian Textile industry and also factories in China are lowering their production due to high overhead costs and hence demand for raw material would decrease in China. The excess raw material can then make way to India.