Thanks
And i respect your views.
Let me explain you the concept of operating leverage. If you study the analyst presentations on PVR site their variable costs are around 33 percent of the sales.
The total fixed costs are around 1050 crores per year.
In Q1 the total operating costs were around 402 crores.
Variable operating costs will be 486 crores X 33 percent = 160 crores
So Fixed operating costs will be 242 crores or Rs. 969 crores per year
Add interest costs of 88 crores and total fixed costs this year should be 1057 crores.
Taxation I am assuming nominal costs as most of screens are in tax holiday.
So the break even sales for the year are 1050 / (1-.33) = 1578 crores.
So each rupee of sales above 1578 crores and net margin will increase by 67 paisa.
Now with your assumption of Rs. 1800 crores it means a profit of (1800 – 1578) = 148 crores or a EPS of 35 which matches your prediction.
Now read this:
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/results-boardroom/bahubali-bajrangi-to-add-muscle-to-q2-earnings-pvr_2090461.html
Check this for box office collections
http://www.koimoi.com/box-office-bollywood-films-of-2015/
In Q1 there was not a single blockbuster hit. There were many good churners and they netted 485 crores.
If you check the box office collections on koimoi in Q2 due to blockbusters like bahubali , bajrangi bhaijan this quarter till August 17 they crossed the entire box office collections they achieved in Q1, If you do a calculations we have one month remaining in q2 and the total box office collections in Q1 is 510 crores while entire q2 is 561 crores. Please remember the 510 crores above does not include the bahubali collections of 100 crore plus in Hindi (and do not forget regional collections as well). Mission impossible collected an additional 50 crores.So with one month remaining in q2 collections are 660 crores (Adding MI5 and bahubali) against q1 collection of 561 crores
So even if the new releases like phantom garner 60 crores in one month we will have total box office collections in q2 equal to 720 crores which is 30 percent rise over q1 which comes to around 630 crores.
Q3 has big releases (Salman khans soorja barjatya film, Bajirao mastani etc). So we wait for the verdict.