Hi Rohit,

Please find below the date of approval for the generic players for gCelebrex:

The good thing about gCelebrex is its a pretty big molecule and still there are limited players in the market for it. I am not sure on the price erosion front but given limited competition, I dont think it would be more than 40 – 50%. May be we can go through Lupin concall and get the data if available.

Triveni group has strong tie ups with industrial sector and with General Electric for technology and exports.

Triveni Engineering has announced demerger of its loss making sugar & allied business, along with all related assets and liabilities into a separate entity.

Market Cap – Rs.600 Crores,
CMP – Rs.22
Debt – Rs. 1258 Crores (mainly owing to sugar business working capital)
Holding in Triveni Turbine Ltd (@21.8%) = ~ Rs.700 Crores

Shareholder having 1 share of Triveni Engineering will receive
– 1 additional share of Triveni Industries Limited . The loss making sugar business Triveni Sugar Limited having a turnover of ~Rs.1900 Crores will be a subsidiary in this business.

What is interesting, of course is the Engineering business that remains. Make in India and strong relationship with GE at the start of the capex cycle should provide a good upside with low downside.

FY 2015 Engineering business
Sales – Rs.300 Cr
PBIT Rs.25 Crore
Order book of 600 Cr+ (mainly in Water business)

Gears business
– Tie up with GE Lufkin
– 60% market share uses technology from GE for higher power gears
Excerpt from BSE Announcement : The major boost in exports is expected to come from the sourcing drive of major OEMs including from GE–Lufkin, GE Oil & Gas and the business is having good enquiries under this arrangement.
Not strictly comparable but Triveni Turbine which has similar arrangement with GE is quoting at 5 times Sales

Water business
This business is focused on providing world-class solutions in water and waste-water treatment
to customers in industrial and municipal segments.

Latest management update link below
http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/CBF4485D_438B_4442_864B_8EABC12D5A5A_202049.pdf

Views invited for forming a better opinion on this special situation.

Disc : Invested @ Rs.24

@ravindra

Generally CMD remuneration upto 4-5% of the profit is considered reasonable and at optimum levels. 7.8% is definitely very high.

I would say that wind mills were required for securing the power, which was scarce in Tamil Nadu. So I would still call it capex. Though agree with other points.

@Vivek_mashrani

Hi, please note that a lot of capex in past has been for setting up windmills and thus not on core plant machinery. Capex in windmill besides providing low cost power on LCOE basis, also provided tax savings (accelerated depreciation of 80% in one full FY in the year of investment).

I am not much conversant with balance sheets, but someone into it can perhaps explore how much capex has been in windmills and plant machinery. This should provide a better view on FCF. Infact, it will be helpful if such an analysis can be posted here. Many thanks