Posts in category Value Pickr
Tata Motors – DVR (23-08-2024)
Tata motors has released a FAQ on this and also a sample calculator. While it does not completely remove the ambiguity, it does help reduce the range of estimate.
FAQ:
Sample Calculator:
https://www.tatamotors.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/A-ordinary-shareholders-illustrator.xlsx
Amoul Portfolio (23-08-2024)
Dont plan to change anything at the moment.
I still think there is a lot of upside left. Company is growing at more than 100% YoY and forward-looking PE still looks good.
Also, I have learnt that in the bull run you should ride on your winners and focus on valuation reduces and growth increases. If there is a broader change in market sentiment I will think about this.
Zomato – Should you order? (23-08-2024)
Contrarian EPS has provided valuable insights to many investors through his tweets. While his opinions are generally sensible and useful, particularly when it comes to traditional businesses. He has consistently held a negative view of Zomato since its inception. I’ve been following him for a long time, and he is not invested in Zomato.
Zomato, however, has a strong board, particularly with Mr. Sanjeev B, who holds the highest stake in the company.
Out of context, SB becomes board member of MMT. MMT paid him renumeration as board member, instead of taking in his personal account, he deposited it in to infoedge account, as he believes his all-time should allocate to infoedge.
Although mistakes can happen in business (such as the investment in housing.com by SB), overpaying for some assets is often less concerning. While it may appear that Zomato overpaid in this deal, strategic decisions in business sometimes require to take such deal. I believe there could be two reasons for pursuing a deal even if it seems costly:
Competitive Concerns: 3rd party, possibly Adani, might have been interested in the same deal. If that had happened, the market could have become more competitive with three players: BookMyShow (BMS), Adani, and Zomato. Now it’s duopoly with this deal.
Disruption Potential: I strongly believe BMS is vulnerable to disruption. Despite being in the market for a long time, their revenue has stagnated at around ₹800 crore (according to a CNBC report, although no specific source is available). Zomato’s CEO, who is one of the smartest entrepreneurs, likely didn’t want to wait any longer to make a strategic move.
Disclaimer: I am invested in Zomato, and my views may be biased in favor of Zomato and most new-age entrepreneurs.
My mistake: Eventhough invested around 50 and following it from IPO, couldn’t able to increase my allocation.
Amic forging limited – sme (23-08-2024)
AMIC BOARD MEETING.pdf (1.8 MB)
They have issued share warrants. So there is an expansion plan but its not in public what are they going to do with the money. Hopefully it will be out in public soon.
Disclosure – Invested
Amoul Portfolio (23-08-2024)
Hi Amoul, are you planning to change your allocation in NPST, given its trading at very high P/E of 125?
BLS International (23-08-2024)
Hello everyone – I have put together a story on BLS International in my newsletter.
In this post, I’ve focussed on 3 areas:
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What FY25 might look like for BLS International on the basis of their Q1FY25 numbers and their recent acquisition of iData (a Turkey based visa & consular services provider)? It is my estimation that revenue can increase by 35% and EBITDA by 94% in FY25 as compared to FY24
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The big question in my head was with regards the valuation. Having no comparable company (VFS Global is still unlisted and not domiciled in India), I used the good ol’ Peter Lynch PEG ratio. The PEG ratio came to 0.68 which indicates undervaluation
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I then looked at the business model itself and if one looks at it broadly then it’s a model where people are waiting in a queue to be served, they have money in hand, they are ready to pay whatever I charge & they have nowhere to go – the perfect business model. I’ve explained part of that in this section
Link to post: BLS International Stamps a 93% Upside
Hope you like it!
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Curious Case of Coal India (23-08-2024)
So, in an interview in ET, it was stated that total dues for coal India may come to 30k Crores.
Out of this, they indicate up to 24k is recoverable from their clients, and 6k will be from their end. This is the maximum, subject to how state governments levy them, royalty, etc.
Now, this will be over 12 years. Even if we take 30k entirely, payable over 12 years with no interest, etc., it comes out to 2500/yr. The impact is real but manageable. ~ 7% current profits.
The Market thinks it’s a nothing burger, and prices have increased since the decision. You have to analyze the rest.
Disclosure: Invested.
Tata Consumer Products Limited (TATACONSUM) (23-08-2024)
Did you buy the entitlements, or have you received them as a shareholder
Emami – FMCG Available at Low Valuation (23-08-2024)
Both HUL and Nestlé are strong performers with their own strengths. HUL offers stability and growth in the Indian market, while Nestlé provides a diversified global presence and strong innovation capabilities.