Yes. My point was to look at Bank Nifty EPS growth in last 5 years as 50% CAGR can be wrong. This CAGR is optical illusion due to suppressed nature of profits.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Vivek Gautam Portfolio (18-08-2024)
Hope VPers applied in Akums drug ipo at 679. Now 1067.
Akums listed at 725 giving ample buying opp.
Its a quality contract manfg co in domestic pharma mkt
Omkar’s Portfolio Analysis and Discussion (18-08-2024)
Following up on this argument. Suprajit last week announced buy back worth 1%+ of the market cap at 50% premium to the price at the time of announcement. This according me was possible because if the ‘restraints’ exercised at the time of acquisitions. They are in position to reward shareholders while Eris and Mankind are scrambling to raise funds
Having said that – Torrent is also in news to raise funds to acquire JB pharma. I get the feeling that market is conducting live capital allocation webinar and I am happy to be student. I am ready to change my opinion on the topic as these events unfold over next few quarters
Kotak Mahindra Bank – Low Cost Liability Banking Franchise (18-08-2024)
yes but now, pvt banks has lowest npa in decade and improved asset quality.
Kotak Mahindra Bank – Low Cost Liability Banking Franchise (18-08-2024)
5 years ago was a depressed base as PSUs and Some private banks were dealing with very high NPAs. Some showing losses or negligible profits.
Krishca Ltd : A SME offering steel strapping Solution (18-08-2024)
Another interesting angle to consider is defense contracts. It might seem like a long shot, but think about it militaries, including the Indian Army, must have substantial logistics needs, particularly when it comes to transporting heavy ammunition and large quantities of supplies. Steel strapping could be essential for securing these loads.
It might be worth asking Bala in the next conference call whether the Indian Army puts out tenders for such packaging contracts. If they do, this could open up a significant opportunity, not just in India but potentially for supplying the U.S. military in Bahrain as well.
Sure, it’s a bit of a gamble, but it’s worth exploring.
Long shot !
My portfolio updates and investment journey (18-08-2024)
Hi @mayank_raghuwanshi Strides has guided for 20-22% margins. While OneSource will be demerged and get listed, we shall get about 1/3 value in that form. So excluding OneSource, Stride’s market cap will be ~8k crore. I expect Strides excluding OneSource to report 400 crores of profits. Hence, Strides is available at 20PE FY25 post demerger (whenever that happens).
After I bought stock has already runup 15-18% in a very short time. My conviction on Pharma and Chemicals is not that strong so I may not rampup or exit anytime.
Omkar’s Portfolio Analysis and Discussion (18-08-2024)
Hi Hardik
You are right, even I think – evaluating portfolio performance VS benchmark over the short term is not that important. To be honest, I don’t even actively track my direct equity IRR because I believe it limits my imagination ( LOL, can’t believe I just said that!!! )
For me, tracking error is an important concept from a behavioural aspect. With whatever little experience, what I have learnt is that – the market is brutal and it will surprise you both on the upside and downside – both in terms of returns and duration. Suboptimal portfolio design makes it difficult to stay the course when our portfolio is at the receiving end during these extremes. I witnessed this personally ( which you can read in my very first post ). It is better to be prepared or at least conscious about these possibilities especially in my case when I am concentrating on small – mid-caps rather than being reactive when the market strikes
Route Mobile – Internet, Mobile & Telecom (18-08-2024)
I just gone through the Q1FY25 Concall of Route Mobile.
- New promoters have came in.
- Expecting revenue growth of 18-22% growth in FY25
- Expecting margin expansion in coming years
- Aiming to achieve 8300cr sales in next 2-3 years (tha’ts 26% CAGR growth)
My simple take(no complex calculations) –
CMP – 1530
Current Sales 4000cr roughly
PAT – 390cr, Net Margins at 9.8%
We can expect 8300cr Sales by FY27 with Margin Expansion of 3%
then FY27 PAT will be of 1080cr
ATH is at 2223 with P/E of 91
Current P/E – 27.7
If management do walk the talk then we can see P/E expansion + Margin Expansion + PAT growth
We can see these levels in 3 years –
- 4765 at current P/E
- 6025 at 35 P/E
- 6880 at 40 P/E
In last 5 year, sales is almost 5x and PAT is 7x.
Note – I have read 3 concalls of mid cap IT companies but Route looks cheapest. Another 2 co has also given guidance for sales growth of 20% but they are already trading of 40 times of earnings.
I may be wrong in my analysis.
Disc- Invested with proper allocation and risk management.
Rategain – Fast Growing SaaS Leader (18-08-2024)
Careful – the PBT was a big beat mainly due to high other income. I’m not sure if core business is growing fast for the valuations to sustain