Unlike other major banks, Kotak Mahindra Bank has unlisted major subsidiaries. Ideally kmb should get better p/b value compared to all other big banks.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Borosil Limited (18-08-2024)
Here’s a summary of the key points from latest Investor Presentation:
Financial Performance for Q1 FY25 (Quarter ended June 30, 2024):
- Net Sales: ₹216.8 crores, up 23.2% year-over-year (YoY)
- EBITDA: ₹36.7 crores, up 74.9% YoY
- EBITDA margin: 16.0%, improved from 13.6% in Q1 FY24
- Profit Before Tax (PBT): ₹12.9 crores, up 80.4% YoY
- Profit After Tax (PAT): ₹9.3 crores, up 87.6% YoY
- Net Debt: Reduced to ₹57.8 crores from ₹94.5 crores in the previous year
Segment-wise Performance:
- Glassware: ₹55.7 crores, up 42.2% YoY
- Non-Glassware: ₹85.1 crores, up 20.3% YoY
- Opalware: ₹76.1 crores, up 15.0% YoY
Other Key Insights from the commentary/slides:
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Strong overall growth: The company has shown robust growth across all segments, with total consumer ware sales increasing by 23.2%.
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Improved profitability: Significant improvement in EBITDA and PAT, indicating better operational efficiency and cost management.
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Debt reduction: The company has reduced its net debt, strengthening its financial position.
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Diversified product portfolio: Borosil has successfully expanded from being primarily a glassware company to offering a wide range of consumer products including non-glassware and opalware.
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Market position: Borosil is positioned as one of the leading brands in glass microwavables and claims to be the largest opalware player in India.
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Future growth strategies: The company aims to achieve a revenue CAGR of 15-20%, improve EBITDA margins, and optimize capital employed through various initiatives including increasing penetration of glass storage and opalware, introducing innovative products, and accelerating e-commerce growth.
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ESG focus: Borosil has outlined strategic ESG priorities, including aims to achieve carbon-neutral operations, create a positive water balance, and focus on waste management opportunities.
Disclaimer: Holding part of tail end of LT PF. No recos., No transaction in last 30 days.
Transpek Industry limited (18-08-2024)
Company- Transpek Industries
TTM Sales~560 Cr
3 Years Guidance~ 1000 Cr
TTM Margins~ 13%
3 Years Guidance~22%
Basically Company is available at 3 year forward
EV/EBITDA~ 4.2
Disc- Buying in staggered manner
Sandhar Technologies – An emerging market leader (18-08-2024)
Sandhar technologies –
Q1 FY 25 concall and results highlights –
Revenues – 913 vs 829 cr, up 10 pc
EBITDA – 90 vs 75 cr, up 19 pc ( margins @ 9.85 vs 9.10 pc )
PAT – 29 vs 22 cr, up 35 pc
Geographical breakup of revenues –
Standalone – 74 pc
Indian Subsidiaries – 13 pc
International Subsidiaries – 13 pc
Product wise breakup of revenues –
Locking and Vision systems – 24 pc
Cabins and Fabrications – 14 pc
Sheet metal components – 18 pc
Aluminium Dye castings – 26 pc
Assemblies – 10 pc
Others – 8 pc
Segment wise breakup of sales –
2W – 60 pc
PV – 18 pc
OHV – 15 pc
CV – 2 pc
Others – 5 pc
Schedule for beginning of mass production of EV components –
Motor controllers –
250 W – Aug 24
2000 W – Sep 24
6000 W – Dec 24
Battery chargers –
550 W – Sep 24
750 W – Started in Jul 24
AC-DC converters –
180 W – Dec 24
Company is localising a lot of the parts that go into these EV components. In medium term, company expects margins in these EV products to be as good or better than company level margins
Q1 is typically the slowest Qtr for the company
All of company’s JVs have turned EBITDA positive wef Q1 FY 25 ( including their plants in Barcelona, Mexico, Romania )
Company’s new plant at Pune for making Cabin and Dye Castings to start commercial production by Sep 24. This segment of company’s business is growing rapidly. Hence this capex was urgently required to keep meeting the customer demands
The EV products that the company intends to commercialise this yr should give them 5-10 cr revenues this year. Ramp up in revenues is only expected wef FY 26
The high inventory levels in the system that exist in PVs these days is not the case with 2-Wheelers. The offtake and volume growth in 2 Wheelers has been much better
Company expects revenues from smart locks ( new product line ) to start flowing in from Oct, Nov 24. Company will start supplying Suzuki and Honda. Content per vehicle in case of smart locks is much higher ( each unit should cost @ around Rs 4-5k )
Net debt on books @ 550 cr vs 592 cr on 31 Mar 24. Aim to reduce debt to below 500 cr levels by end of FY 25
In Q1, there was a slowdown in construction equipment segment. From Q2 onwards ( as this segment picks up ) there should be better topline growth for the company
Capex lined up for FY 25 is aprox 250 cr. Capex intensity is likely to reduce wef FY 26
Aim to increase EBITDA margins to around 10.5 pc in FY 25 and 11 pc by end of FY 26
Company expects the number of 2 Wheelers with smart locks can be in double digits in terms of Mkt share over a 2 yr period
Sandhar’s Mkt share in 2 Wheeler locking system stands at 70 pc in the domestic mkt
32 pc of company’s revenues come from TVS, 19 pc from Heromotocorp, 8 pc from JCB. These are company’s top 3 customers. Other important customers contributing 4-5 pc of sales each include Honda, Bosch
Expect the smart locks EBITDA margins to be in line with the mechanical locks business ie @ 13-15 pc EBITDA levels. But the value of business per lock is expected to be 6X to 10X
Opinion : business momentum looks strong. Should result in good to great topline and bottomline growth
Disc: holding, not a buy/sell recommendation, biased, not SEBI registered
Ranvir’s Portfolio (18-08-2024)
Sandhar technologies –
Q1 FY 25 concall and results highlights –
Revenues – 913 vs 829 cr, up 10 pc
EBITDA – 90 vs 75 cr, up 19 pc ( margins @ 9.85 vs 9.10 pc )
PAT – 29 vs 22 cr, up 35 pc
Geographical breakup of revenues –
Standalone – 74 pc
Indian Subsidiaries – 13 pc
International Subsidiaries – 13 pc
Product wise breakup of revenues –
Locking and Vision systems – 24 pc
Cabins and Fabrications – 14 pc
Sheet metal components – 18 pc
Aluminium Dye castings – 26 pc
Assemblies – 10 pc
Others – 8 pc
Segment wise breakup of sales –
2W – 60 pc
PV – 18 pc
OHV – 15 pc
CV – 2 pc
Others – 5 pc
Schedule for beginning of mass production of EV components –
Motor controllers –
250 W – Aug 24
2000 W – Sep 24
6000 W – Dec 24
Battery chargers –
550 W – Sep 24
750 W – Started in Jul 24
AC-DC converters –
180 W – Dec 24
Company is localising a lot of the parts that go into these EV components. In medium term, company expects margins in these EV products to be as good or better than company level margins
Q1 is typically the slowest Qtr for the company
All of company’s JVs have turned EBITDA positive wef Q1 FY 25 ( including their plants in Barcelona, Mexico, Romania )
Company’s new plant at Pune for making Cabin and Dye Castings to start commercial production by Sep 24. This segment of company’s business is growing rapidly. Hence this capex was urgently required to keep meeting the customer demands
The EV products that the company intends to commercialise this yr should give them 5-10 cr revenues this year. Ramp up in revenues is only expected wef FY 26
The high inventory levels in the system that exist in PVs these days is not the case with 2-Wheelers. The offtake and volume growth in 2 Wheelers has been much better
Company expects revenues from smart locks ( new product line ) to start flowing in from Oct, Nov 24. Company will start supplying Suzuki and Honda. Content per vehicle in case of smart locks is much higher ( each unit should cost @ around Rs 4-5k )
Net debt on books @ 550 cr vs 592 cr on 31 Mar 24. Aim to reduce debt to below 500 cr levels by end of FY 25
In Q1, there was a slowdown in construction equipment segment. From Q2 onwards ( as this segment picks up ) there should be better topline growth for the company
Capex lined up for FY 25 is aprox 250 cr. Capex intensity is likely to reduce wef FY 26
Aim to increase EBITDA margins to around 10.5 pc in FY 25 and 11 pc by end of FY 26
Company expects the number of 2 Wheelers with smart locks can be in double digits in terms of Mkt share over a 2 yr period
Sandhar’s Mkt share in 2 Wheeler locking system stands at 70 pc in the domestic mkt
32 pc of company’s revenues come from TVS, 19 pc from Heromotocorp, 8 pc from JCB. These are company’s top 3 customers. Other important customers contributing 4-5 pc of sales each include Honda, Bosch
Expect the smart locks EBITDA margins to be in line with the mechanical locks business ie @ 13-15 pc EBITDA levels. But the value of business per lock is expected to be 6X to 10X
Opinion : business momentum looks strong. Should result in good to great topline and bottomline growth
Disc: holding, not a buy/sell recommendation, biased, not SEBI registered
Kotak Mahindra Bank – Low Cost Liability Banking Franchise (18-08-2024)
additionally – kotak bank pat has been increased from 7,200cr to 18,200cr in last 5 year (thats 20% cagr growth) and EPS 37.5 to 91.6 in 5 year.
P/E has been crashed to 40 to 18.9 in last 5 year
similarly, P/B has been also crashed from 5.1 to 2.7 times in 5 year
and Book Value has been increased from 264 to 654.
For me, in Bluechip companies we should only focus on valuations. Its better to not go in-deapt analysis specially for bluechip companies because management is far more experienced then us. and they have more skin in the game then us.
As per my analysis, Banks are going to see 13-15% credit growth in coming 3 years, and i believe kotak bank can give 16% cagr growth from here.
FY24A PAT – 18,200cr
FY27F PAT – 28,400cr roughly.
Current Mcap – 3,53,000 cr
Current P/E – 19
FY27 Forward P/E – 12.43
disc – invested
Companies with 20%+ growth guidance for next few years (18-08-2024)
Caplin point has also guided for 20%+ growth for next few years. However, people have concerns on governance part.
Shankara builpro also has guided by 20% growth for next 2-3 years, however for Q1 though EBITDA did grow by 20% but they have high finance cost & hence flattish PAT growth. The same is expected for next few quarters.
DCX Systems Ltd (18-08-2024)
The management has stated during the concalls that the revenues and cash flows are lumpy. The company works on a Cost-plus model with its customers. In electronics manufacturing, there are typically these stages:
- PCB design
- PCB fabrication
- BoM procurement
- PCB Assembly
- PCB qualification/acceptance testing
- Delivery
I am guessing DCX gets the PCB designs from its customers and its role starts from fabrication onwards.
Since these are defence & aerospace PCBs the entire process could take up to 6-7 months to complete, because the PCBs have to undergo many tests during each of the above steps. For eg. there is something called as a burn-In test, where the assembled PCBs are kept in a thermal chamber at an elevated temperature for ~100 hours (will vary from product to product). After every few hours they have to be functionally tested while still in the chamber. Some of these tests happen on the entire lot while some happen only on a small % sample. Then there are also some tests which will happen at the customer’s end.
I am guessing that DCX gets some mobilization advance payment from the customer when the contract is started. This is for component procurement etc. The invoicing likely happens when the customer finishes all the tests at their end after the PCBAs have been delivered to them.
So it might happen that while the work related to a contract happens throughout the year, the billing will only happen in one of the quarters. So instead of tracking the company on the Q-to-Q basis it is better to track it on an annual basis. The primary metric to keep a track of is the order book. As long as they have ~2 years worth of orders that is fine.
Stake sale by the promoter is a very big negative. Especially the manner in which it was done i.e. in-between a fantastic quarter and a very poor quarter in terms of numbers. As a general thumb rule I am skeptical of promoters in small & mid caps. Trust only develops after many many quarters of walking-the-talk. So while I am still invested in DCX (<5% of my portfolio), I will be cautious.
Garware Hi-tech films (Earlier Garware polyester) (18-08-2024)
Yes, you’re right. The method you mentioned is the correct way to read ROE, and I’m not suggesting that companies like Asian Paints and Pidilite don’t have high ROE in that sense. I’m just trying to paint a comparative picture of Garware’s seemingly depressed ROE. Ultimately, since these gains are added back to reserves, shareholders still have a claim over these profits.