Are there any software or apps that can invest my money like an SIP and distribute that money as per the weightage each month. Never used smallcase, will that help me?
Posts in category All News
Raymond – The Complete Man (24-11-2024)
This is my first Equity Research Report, Let me know how I can improve.
Protean EGov Technologies Ltd – A Play on the ONDC, Digital Policies (24-11-2024)
Protean 2Gov Technologies Limited.
About the Company:
Protean provides a comprehensive range of IT solutions in tax modernisation, social security and welfare, digital identity, education and skill financing, data solutions, and cloud and infosec services, catering to diverse consumer segments and impacting various sectors of the economy. It plays a vital role in establishing multiple foundational
Digital Public Infrastructure (DPIs) for Open Digital Ecosystems (ODEs). As one of the key IT-enabled solutions companies in India and chief architects and implementers for some of the most critical and large-scale technology infrastructure projects in the country with the aim to improve the delivery of public services and empower the residents.
Over the years, Protean solutions have led to the identification of bottlenecks in government services, increased transparency and efficiency, improved access to information, redefined public services
delivery, and led to a reduction in service delivery costs, while ensuring financial inclusion. The company collaborates with the government and has extensive experience in creating digital public infrastructure and developing innovative citizen-centric e-governance solutions.
Business Segments:
1) TAX SERVICES
Protean offers acceptance and processing of PAN applications, issuance of fresh PAN cards, re-issuances, updating of PAN CARD, and running of the TIN FCs and PAN Centres across India and the company also issues Tax Deduction and Collection Account Number (TAN). Protean operates over 4.42 lakh PAN/TIN facilitation centers and strategic network entities covering 18,000 locations across 36 states and Union territories in India. The largest issuer of India’s Digital Tax Identity with a cumulative 63% market share with the rest shared with UTI Infrastructure TechnologyServices Limited.
Revenue Contribution and Financials:
The segment contributed 55% of FY24 revenue and 54% in Q2FY25, respectively, and grew at 21% QoQ and saw a sequential degrowth YoY for the last 2 Quarters on the backdrop of a high base attributable to the high volumes in the previous year driven by the Aadhaar-PAN linkage deadline.
Key Growth Drivers:
Increasing use case of PAN: PAN is mandatory for Digital and Property transactions, government schemes, foreign trips, etc.
Largely underpenetrated population: Population of ~100crs. older than 18 years of age, only 50% of which own a PAN card, and at the current PAN card issuance pace, it’ll ~ take 6-7 years to bridge this gap.
Increasing trend in workforce formalization, and increased employment among youth, ~1.2 crs. Youths enter the workforce every year all of whom will be requiring a PAN card.
An increase in the no. of online PANs issuance over offline bodes well for Protean in the form of margin expansion in the future as the offline issuance involves a 25-30% commission.
Revenue Model:
Asset Ligth, Prepaid B2C model with transactional revenue. Protean earns revenue from the customer for services provided like new issuance, and updation of new PAN through online or offline channels and earns no revenue from the IT department.
Risks and Challenges:
Growth from new PAN issuances has an upper limit of around 7-8 crore annually, roughly equivalent to the average number of new PANs issued in India. Margins are low for services beyond new issuances, and soon, 80-90% of India’s adult population may already possess PAN cards. As this threshold approaches over the next few years, most revenue will increasingly come from lower-margin, non-issuance services, shifting the focus away from new issuance growth.
PAN issuance is cyclical and correlates the employment rate and job creation rate with heavy reliance on government schemes**.**
Recognition of any proxy identity card for PAN by the GoI in the future will hurt Protean’s business.
A few Financial aid from the government require PAN.
2) SOCIAL SECURITY AND WELFARE: Protean acts as the Central Recordkeeping Agency (CRA) for the National Pension System (NPS) and the Atal Pension Yojana (APY) and establishes IT infra, handles administration & customer service functions for all subscribers. India’s largest CRA for NPS and APY with a 92% market share in NPS and 100% market share in APY. Protean onboarded 3.6 mil subcribers in Q2 along with 826 corporates.
Revenue Contribution and Financials:
The segment contributed 28% of FY24 revenue and 31% in Q2FY25 and grew at 6% QoQ saw sequential growth of 13% YoY in Q2.
Key Growth Drivers:
Private Sector Opening Up to Pension as an Investment Option – Only 6% of private sector employees in India have pension coverage in India currently compared to 70% in the US.
Huge Headroom for Growth – There are only around 7.6 crore pension accounts (NPS & APY combined) as compared to around 54 crore Jan Dhan accountsand India has the lowest per capita pension assets in the world.
Introduction of NPS Vatsalya – Proposed NPS for minors from 0 – 18 years of age group which will Significantly widen the NPS coverage to ~40 crs minors and the company has added 25,000 subscribers till 30th September.
Increased the threshold for NPS contribution by employers for private sector employees from 10% to 14% under the new tax regime, making NPS a more lucrative instrument for saving, and can see increased money coming into NPS.
Strong positive sentiment towards pension schemes in India due to the increase in inflation in recent years.
Revenue Model:
This segment serves B2B, B2C, and B2G clients through an annuity and transaction-based revenue model. Revenue is split into three categories: (1) fees for new account openings, (2) transaction fees for each deposit and withdrawal, and (3) annuity based on the total customer base. Approximately 95% of this revenue is recurring, while the remaining 5% is one-time income.
Risks and Challenges:
Cyber security Risks
Dependence on the 2 government pension schemes and any shift in people’s preference from NPS/APY to other schemes.
3) IDENTITY SERVICES: Protean has been authorised by Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) as an Authentication Service Agency (ASA) and Authentication User Agency (AUA) for providing Aadhaar Authentication Services to various entities. Protean has also been authorised by UIDAI as KYC Service Agency (KSA) and KYC User Agency (KUA) for providing Aadhaar-based e-KYC services to various entities. e-KYC is a unique service through which Know Your Client (KYC) process can be performed electronically using the Aadhaar database with explicit authorization by the Resident.
Protean is the sole provider of all 4 facets of digital identity verification i.e. 1. Aadhaar Authentication,2. Online Pan Verification (OPV),3. eSign and 4. eKYC.
Revenue Contribution and Financials:
The segment contributed 12.6% of FY24 revenue and 11% in Q2FY25 which contracted from 14% in Q1 and contracted at 14% QoQ on the backdrop of pricing pressure.
Key Growth Drivers:
Government Tailwind: Strong push towards digital India.
Large Volume of Transactions: While the per transaction revenue might be nominal, these verifications occur on a very large base, allowing for high volume growth.
Large Unaddressed Headroom: With only 2% of the population as regular digital transactors, the growing e-commerce ecosystem.
Growth of Fintech Industry: The expanding fintech sector, is driven by new entrants and significant investments.
This sector is expected to grow significantly over the upcoming years on the back of the rapid adoption of digital authentication, verification, and utilization, witnessing large-scale volume growth with Protean having a significant market share in most services offered.
Larger emphasis on paperless and cashless transactions.
Revenue Model:
B2B, Transaction fees per transaction/authentication.
Risks and Challenges:
The company’s growth is limited by the volume of transactions it facilitates, a factor over which it has no direct control.
Margin compression is due to increased competition and the company plans to mitigate this by building vertical integration of value-added services for digital onboarding, doing credit surrogates, credit scoring, and digital lending leveraging their account aggregator license.
Cyclical in nature and depends on government spending on schemes.
4) Others:
Protean eGov’s offerings span several Open Digital Ecosystems (ODEs), including platforms like ONDC, which supports areas such as e-commerce, mobility, agriculture (Agri Stack), health, education, and skills (ONEST). The Vidya Lakshmi portal, developed by Protean, serves as a central platform for student education loans, mandated by the RBI for public and scheduled banks. By March 2024, it registered ~42 lakh students, with 17.6 lakh loan applications. Protean’s Vidyasaarathi portal also manages online scholarship distribution, processing ~40,000 scholarships for students. Management guidance to increase revenue share from another category to 25:75 with 25% revenue share from non-core business in 2-3 years.
CLOUD & INFOSEC as a part of the push to make in India cloud and green cloud which caters to IaaS, Daas, Paas, and Staas.
Data Stack is a collection of technologies and tools used to collect, store, process, analyze, and visualize data.
ONDC is an open network for digital commerce that will establish open, inclusive, and competitive marketplaces online, creating choice and opportunity for everyone, by everyone.
Other projects include:
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RISE with Protean- This platform targets streamlining the discovery and application of digital assets like APIs, micro-services, and user journeys, thereby enhancing API use and its integrations for businesses in India.
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Protean X (Digitally verifiable credentials): ProteanX is a future-ready solution, that enables individuals and organizations to create, verify, and store credentials using blockchain-based technology. ProteanX enables a secure and tamper-proof digital record of one’s Identity, documents, certificates, and qualifications issued by a trusted source such as a university, employer, government, etc. on a distributed ledger 3. eSign Pro 3. Workflow Management System for Central Board of Film Certification (“CBFC”) engaged Protean as the “Implementation Agency” for the Design, Development, Implementation, Hosting, and Maintenance of the Online Film Certification Application Processing System and the CBFC website. This agreement was renewed on January 1, 2022, for a period of 3 years. It also facilitates the CBFC Officials to process the application, by providing a web-based interface to capture end-to-end application approval workflow for the departmental users associated with the certification process, including the screening of short films. Digitization of old paper certificates issued by CBFC before the launch of this system was also undertaken and has been completed.
Account Aggregator: Leverage its existing relationships with Banking and other financial sector organizations to offer Account Aggregator services that will help offer consent management to citizens and consented fetching of data to various regulators from RBI, SEBI, IRDA, and PFRDA regulated entities to promote greater financial inclusion.
Revenue Contribution and Financials: Contributed 12.6% of FY24 revenue and 11% in Q2FY25 which contracted from 14% in Q1 and contracted at 14% QoQ.
Key Growth Drivers:
Huge headroom for growth with only less than 2% of the Indian population using eCommerce
India’s cloud adoption is currently at 6.0% which is lagging behind the global average of 7.9% and is almost half the US, and UK adoption levels of 11.4 %
Favorable Government policies, increase in consumer demand, and digital transactions in India.
The requirement of RBI to store payment data in the local cloud could push the demand for Indian cloud operators.
Market leader and huge customer base increase the opportunity for upselling and cross-selling various value-added products like the data stack, Rise by Protean, eSign Pro, etc.
A push from GoI to export India’s Digital Public Infrastructure to another country could be a huge growth driver in the future. The Management confirmed talks with African, Middle Eastern, and South East Asian countries but was not able to commit to any quantitative figures.
Foray into exports can accelerate growth being high margin business(>20%)
Revenue Model:
Protean eGov receives reimbursement from ONDC for infrastructure services that enable network functionality and charges one-time fees for application development and design as a tech provider. For back-office support, Protean uses a SaaS model based on transaction volume. Transactional revenue has yet to be fully monetized in 3-4 quarters. Additionally, Protean plans to charge transaction fees each time a buyer connects with a seller on the platform.
Risks and Challenges:
Mostly one-time projects followed by maintenance of infrastructure.
Intensive competition in Cloud and infosec business.
Cyber attack
obsolescence of technology.
India Inc’s interest cover weakens in Q2 amid slowing revenue, profit growth (24-11-2024)
Indian companies faced a decline in interest coverage ratio to 4.8% in the September quarter. This was due to rising interest costs and slower growth in operating profit. Interest costs surged by 7.2% year-on-year, while revenue growth slowed down to 4.9%. Higher working capital requirements and increased borrowings further impacted the ratio.
Gold holds up incremental value of forex reserves (24-11-2024)
The Reserve Bank of India has been increasing its gold reserves, which have helped to offset a decline in foreign currency assets. This strategy has helped the central bank maintain the country’s foreign exchange reserves amidst a global trend of central banks increasing their gold holdings.
Rajesh’s portfolio (24-11-2024)
Half yearly review DYOD
Build investment mindset – Watch the business not the stock price, enter after research then sit tight for years unless something really material happens to alter the decision. Where are we spending time, in this era of weekly and monthly screenshots if one is glued to screen for the price and not looking at business mediocre returns will follow.
If stock is going to be 100x with business growth say Insolation has 1-Billion-dollar goal in three years with 10% PAT, then valuation at 100 PE will be 10 billion USD and after that also it will grow at furious pace as Solar is decadal megatrend then it doesn’t matter where it is 20 % or even 50% down. Here is sample projection of Insolation without equity dilution , split or bonus , 500 plus bagger from my average buy price in 7 years and anyone who got IPO at 38 Rs it is already 100 bagger in just two years…
Year | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Earning growth | 510% | 115% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 80% | |
EPS | 5 | 26 | 55 | 110 | 219 | 439 | 877 | 1579 |
PE | 10 | 150 | 140 | 130 | 120 | 110 | 100 | 100 |
Share price | 311 | 3825 | 7676 | 14255 | 26316 | 48246 | 87720 | 157896 |
I rarely come across people in my network who are not glued to price and doesn’t panic when price goes down as they rarely look at business future. Large allocation in the early phase when high conviction in management, value, patience to let the winners run. Never interrupt compounding like you never lose great relations- a few can be 1000x also if one hold for many decades with foresight to see megatrends and competent management – not in a quarter or year and ignore all the noise be it macro factors or fluctuations.
Stock | PAT CAGR for years | PE 5 years | Entry price | Avg now | Return by FY 26 | FY 30 or longer |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Insolation | 100% plus | 100+ | 140 | 311 | 40X | 500x hold longer |
Bondada | 100% plus | 100+ | 30 | 59 | 40X | |
Kore digital | 100% plus | 50+ | 220 | 485 | 40X | 100X |
Sonalis Consumer | 100% plus | 50+ | 60 | 60 | 40X | 50X |
Max India | 20% plus | 80+ | 80 | 147 | 5X | Permanent |
Cosmic CRF | 100% plus | 50+ | 220 | 384 | 20X | 100X |
K2 Infra | 80% plus | 50+ | 156 | 156 | 5X | 50X |
Eco recycling | 100% plus | 100+ | 140 | 314 | 20X | 100x |
Tejas | 50% plus | 60+ | 70 | 253 | 10X | TBD |
SPML Infra | Turnaround | 50+ | 20 | 45 | 20X | TBD |
Cellecor | 100% plus | 50+ | 25 | 29 | 10X | TBD |
Vmarc | 100% plus | 30+ | 200 | 249 | 5X | Exit |
AVP Infracon | 80% plus | 30+ | 150 | 160 | 5X | 50X |
Srivari Spices | 100% plus | 50+ | 220 | 220 | 5X | 50X |
Investing requires very little action so if one is itching for action then pick any sport and if your adrenaline is high then pick some something adventurous here more action will lead to average to below average result.
I have proven wrong in the last six months to market will keep humbling.
Exits- Veer health- US FDA risk I had ignored and generally I have stayed out of pharma for this reason. It can do well but not worth the risk
Tech know green- Management keeps talking big of 8 billion USD market and hardly any growth , neither orders so have lost faith in them. I also exited Kamat hotels which was a trading bet as management looks like floundering on walking the talk.
Entry Srivari spices 100% CAGR, AVP infracon projection of 10x earning in next 3 to 4 years
Wise Charlie Munger who died this year said before his death “I could have done a lot better if I had been a little smarter, a little quicker … I might have had multiple trillions instead of multiple billions.” “How do you get a great spouse; you deserve a great spouse.” What it means that for anything in life if you want great say great returns in investing then your perspective and actions have to deserving else mere aspiring will take you nowhere.
Ignore noise – Almost all have opinions and very less have depth and temperament needed for high returns. Many superstars and HNIs will learn basics of valuation that share price is function of earning and corporate governance. Blue chips and many large companies have posted disastrous results year after year, and many will vanish too. Many of them come and convey pompously about SMEs that something is wrong while many stocks in their portfolio like Tata Elxsi, LTTS, Asian Paints have given negative return in the last three years. Again, reminds of Buddha – Be your own light! One has to keep laser sharp focus on business growth and its potential, rest all is noise. Social media , and media in general is noise so be careful whom you listen to as very few have depth. We are lucky to be part of this time when it is century of India 4 to 40 US trillion then beyond in fact there is talk by K Subramanyam that it can be 55 trillion USD also by 2047 https://youtu.be/I_zJKxft4rw?si=y-5XSiIcIB2NWNgT
I listen to many YouTube videos and talks almost hundreds in a year while traveling, commuting, or walking. Invariably I go through management interview, guidance of all companies. Without guidance have stopped investing almost now. Let them be wrong but be bold and transparent enough to say
Utpal Seth on terminal value and holding long with differentiated insight – https://youtu.be/kWjHPwEcEIs?si=aPI_R69lxWXcJVYA
Gunavanth vaid on microcap investing https://youtu.be/RKnl9J2lyHA?si=PRTB9KM2Z07syOXu
Peter Lynch https://youtu.be/gH7vpd749NQ?si=QGQNsOOpGeJn2Ehp
Mohnish Pabrai https://youtu.be/SP6kKi2nMz4?si=MNpq1TVdOa7Ez1Jt
I follow many on twitter and most of them keep posting and at times I reply too but I don’t feel the need to be active there. Out of all of them I admire @chiragdashj most. I will continue zero base budgeting in investing and if any stock at that time doesn’t look great enough then will exit however this will happen yearly. It is not about money but quality of life as one of the wisest Charlie used to share – I wanted independence I overshot and got rich.
Risk management is very difficult as Howard Marks says “what we don’t know say covid, 9 /11 great recession of 2007 and so on…
He shared once “I tell my father’s story of the gambler who one day hears about a race with only one horse in it, so he bet the rent money. Halfway around the track the horse jumped over the fence and ran away”
We need to be lucky too. Good luck everyone.
Medi Assist Healthcare Services Limited (24-11-2024)
its most likely a placement to mutual funds and institutions. usually happens when intitutions approach company because market doesnt have enough liquidity. Plus i think the selling promotor is also a PE fund.
Apex Frozen Foods (24-11-2024)
Farmers stopped cultivation of shrimps in the past few quarters due to low selling prices, they are not able to get any profits. This this caused the supply issues, still I don’t think so many farmers are cultivating shrimps till prices gets stabilise
Individual investors take a step back from IPOs on lower grey market premiums (24-11-2024)
The portion for wealthy investors has remained under-subscribed in six of the last 10 issues, while eight out of the last 10 issues saw a retail subscription of less than 4x as against the average of 37x for the past 64 issues
BJP eyes key minority-dominated seats in 2026 Assam polls after Samaguri victory (24-11-2024)
Riding high on its recent by-election victories in Assam and Meghalaya, India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has set its sights on securing five minority-dominated constituencies in the 2026 Assam assembly polls. The party aims to replicate its success in the Samaguri constituency, which it wrested from the Congress party in the recent by-elections.