Posts in category All News
Budget will announce historic steps, present a ‘futuristic vision,’ says President Murmu (27-06-2024)
DIY Momentum QnA and Discussion (27-06-2024)
The intent of the forum is to learn new things, it is also on us to unlearn preconceived misconceptions. Incorporating elements like stop-loss orders, stage analysis, and fundamentals (e.g., promoter holdings) into a momentum strategy can indeed provide additional layers of risk management and fine-tuning. However, it can also dilute the purity of a quantitative momentum strategy. Here’s a breakdown:
Stop-Loss Orders
- Pro: Protects capital by limiting losses during sudden price drops.
- Con: May lead to premature exits due to normal volatility, causing missed opportunities.
Stage Analysis
- Pro: Helps in identifying stocks in the early stages of an uptrend, enhancing the likelihood of catching strong momentum.
- Con: Adds a subjective element to the strategy, deviating from pure quantitative measures.
Fundamental Analysis (e.g., Promoter Holdings)
- Pro: Ensures that selected stocks have a solid backing and are less likely to be speculative, adding a layer of safety.
- Con: Shifts focus from purely price-based indicators to qualitative aspects, diluting the quantitative nature of the strategy.
Pure Quantitative Momentum Strategy
- Simplicity: Focuses purely on price movements and trends without additional subjective filters.
- Consistency: Follows a strict, rule-based approach, reducing the risk of emotional decision-making.
Balancing Both Approaches
While integrating these additional factors can potentially improve the robustness of a momentum strategy, it also moves it away from a purely quantitative approach. Each investor needs to find a balance that aligns with their risk tolerance, investment goals, and comfort level with subjectivity.
Conclusion
Adding stop-loss orders, stage analysis, and fundamental checks can enhance a momentum strategy by providing better risk management and selection refinement. However, it does dilute the pure quantitative nature of the strategy, making it more complex and potentially introducing biases. Each investor must decide based on their preferences and investment philosophy.
Pharma || Hospitals || Diagnostics : Industry perspective (27-06-2024)
Windlas Biotech -
Company overview, Q4 and FY 24 results and concall highlights -
Its a contract maker of generic formulations for Domestic branded companies, GoI ( Jan Aushadhi Kendras ) and also export generic formulations
Vertical wise revenue split -
Generic Formulations CMO Domestic - 77 pc of sales. Last 5 yrs sales CAGR @ 14 pc
Trade generics + Govt Supplies - 19 pc of sales. Last 5 yrs sales CAGR @ 42 pc
Exports - 4 pc of sales. Last 5 yrs sales CAGR @ 45 pc
Therapy wise revenue split -
Acute therapies - 34 pc of sales
Chronic therapies - 66 pc of sales
Product wise revenue split -
Complex generics - 64 pc
Conventional generics - 36 pc
Focus therapy areas - Respiratory, Anti-Diabetic, GI
No of manufacturing facilities @ 4. All 4 located in and around Dehradun. Dosage forms manufactured - oral solids, chewable, liquid bottles, sachet / powdered products, Injectables. Injectables facility commenced operations in Mar 24
Q4 outcomes -
Sales - 171 vs 141 cr, up 22 pc
EBITDA - 22 vs 16 cr, up 34 pc ( margins @ 13 vs 12 pc )
PAT - 17 vs 11 cr, up 48 pc
FY 24 outcomes -
Sales - 631 vs 513 cr, up 23 pc
EBITDA - 78 vs 60 cr, up 30 pc ( margins @ 12 vs 12 pc )
PAT - 58 vs 43 cr, up 37 pc
CFO > 100 cr for FY 24
Cash on books @ 206 cr as on 31 Mar 24
GoI planning to triple the number of Jan Aushadhi stores to 25k inside next 2 yrs. should act as major catalyst to the Trade generics segment
Company’s CMO - domestic vertical grew by 20 pc in FY 24 - that’s 3X of IPM
As company’s capacity utilisation grows (and specially for injectables segment which is a high margin segment) - company’s EBITDA margins should expand going forward
Guiding for 1000 cr topline in FY 26
Capex guidance for FY 25 @ 20 cr for expansion of Dehradun plant - 2. For FY 26, it should be around 30-35 cr
The Capex spend for the Injectable facility was @ 75 cr
Company’s trade generics segment generates greater EBITDA margins vs CMO for branded companies as the company gets to retain the distribution margins in addition to the manufacturing Margins
Govt’s focus on better quality of generic medicines and crackdown on non-compliant players is a structural tail wind for the company
At peak capacity utilisation, the Injectables facility can do an asset turns of 1.2 times ( so that amounts to 90 odd cr of annual revenues. However, the EBTDA margins here are > 15-16 pc )
Company’s expansion plans for medium - long term will be a mix of organic + inorganic - given the healthy cash flow generation by them
Company’s employee costs are in the 13-14 pc band vs Innova Captab’s 7-8 pc band. Company believes that employee cost is an investment
Company believes that complying with all GMP / Schedule M regulations is not easy for smaller non-compliant players. It does cost significant money and a complete change in operating mindset
Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered
President’s address says Emergency was an attack on Constitution (27-06-2024)
Piramal Natural, 2 others exit Archean Chemical Industries, sell 10% stake (27-06-2024)
Ranvir’s Portfolio (27-06-2024)
JB Chemicals -
Q4 and FY 24 concall and results highlights -
Q4 outcomes -
Revenues - 862 vs 762 cr, up 13 pc
Gross Margins @ 65.2 vs 63.9 pc
EBITDA - 198 vs 164 cr ( margins @ 23 vs 21 pc )
PAT - 126 vs 88 cr
FY 24 outcomes -
Revenues - 3484 vs 3149 cr, up 11 pc
Gross Margins @ 66.1 vs 62.9 pc ( big improvement )
EBITDA - 897 vs 696 cr ( margins @ 26 vs 22 pc )
PAT - 553 vs 410 cr
Gross Debt @ 357 cr vs 548 cr YoY
Cash on Books @ 464 cr. Company is now net debt free
Capex of FY 24 @ 135 cr - expansion of lozenges manufacturing facility @ Daman
Domestic Business - revenues @ 1897 cr, grew by 17 pc YoY. Company now ranks 22 in the IPM. Excluding the acquired Opthal portfolio ( from Novartis ), the company’s domestic business grew by 11 pc. Opthal portfolio clocked revenues of 16 cr + for Mar 24
Brand Wise sales ( top brands ) -
Cilacar & Variants - 600 cr +
Metrogyl and variants - 300 cr +
Rantac - 400 cr +
Nicardia - 170 cr +
Sporolac - 120 cr + ( last 3 yr CAGR @ 33 pc )
Azmarda - 70 cr +
MR productivity @ 7 vs 6.2 lakh / month YoY
International Business - Revenues @ 1587, grew by 5 pc. Formulation sales @ 1069 cr, CMO sales @ 432 cr, API sales @ 86 cr
Guiding for an EBITDA margin of 26-28 pc for FY 25 vs the earlier guidance of 25-27 pc
Guiding for a high teen growth in CMO business in H2 FY 25. Should do 10-12 pc growth in H1 in CMO business. Should commercialise their new - Immunity Boosting, Melatonin and Pain Killer lozenges in FY 25. This is a high entry barrier, long gestation period business
Company believes they can achieve high growth rates in the newly acquired Opthal Portfolio. These brands were previously under leveraged and under invested. Company has also taken the MR count in this division from 75 to 105
Company should be able to grow its topline in the high teens in FY 25
Company is still open to acquiring more brands to keep the growth momentum going
Aim to do 180-200 cr topline from the acquired Opthal business in FY 25
Company doesn’t face any Chinese competition wrt its Lozenges - CMO business
Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered
DIY Momentum QnA and Discussion (27-06-2024)
If stop-loss can be applied to protect capital, then can even stage-analysis be applied while selection of stocks as that would fine tune the selection process also…and if we apply the fundamentals also, promoter holdings also, then will this not dilute the quantitative strategy itself?