Some Multidisciplinary analysis.
Finance and Control systems(non linear variables):-
1.There was classic case of lollapollaza effect when the china stocks fell and Volkswagon issue causing the prices of MSL to fall.Both forces working in one direction and causing prices to fall.
Psychology:-
1.He is kind of fanatic by seeing what he has done for last 20 years.Every time meeting the audacious goal for every five years.
2.He is value creator which can be known from one incidence when they bought the US company in 2009 for ~ 200 million with billion dollar sales.
3. He posses few of the qualities of as mentioned in
1. Outsiders book
2.Prof Sanjay bakshi fanatic lecture.
Focus, value creation.
Maths ,philosophy and Biology:-
Law of small numbers:-The consistency of the performance for last 20 years can give better picture how company is managed.
They are doing one thing for long time which gives natural advantage of survival.
Value/Price:-
1.I think the better metric to look at for company with high amount of debt is not P/E as it can give skewed picture due to interest it need to pay.In this company we are sure that they will be trying to meet Sales target of 3x in next five years, considering if they are able to meet it, we saying the P/S ratio to fall by 1/3.Currently it is 0.9 so we will seeing it around 0.3 which give considerable amount of safety if it tries to sale at current level or even at median P/S of 0.6.
Risk:-
1.I may suffer from confirmation bias as the models here are not fully tested and based on historical facts of things happened to other companies in last 10 years.
2. Definitely, I may also suffer single cause and single effect as just try to highlight only those which worked for the thesis but not where these qualities also lead to debacle.
Disc:- Invested when lollapollaza effect was in play.
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