- Whenever markets give returns too fast to digest i feel jittery about future prospects.
- i didn’t find many value buying opportunities… almost everything felt expansive
- i was very concerned of upcoming Fed rate hike cycle… and basically my view was to avoid first 3 rate hikes and then assess again…
i had a call with my friends and we all decided that from here onwards… safer bet is real estate so we starting attending HUDA online auctions… and bought plots at ~25% discount to market rate… and then i pressed exit button on all stocks together as payment was to be done… rational was at least i will make 20% on this bet… as a thumb rule we buy only when there is minimum 20% discount to market rate… plus Gurgaon is very liquid market…
i did partial market exits in jan 2018 as well… but at that time i did rollover from small-mid caps to large caps… thinking it would be safe… but it was painful experience of 2 years… and later i saw vedio of stan druckenmiller where he mentioned his secret to 30% compounding is side stepping financial crisis and betting on other underperforming assets which made perfect sense to me… staying in market(bubbly phase) lets say 60% long and 40% short wont help you reaching 30% compounding target… at max it would be take you around ~20% range… so timing is sort of essential if one want to reach ~30% compounding.
my top holding at the time of exit were: AIRTEL, IEX, HDFC, IT Basket(Mastek, KPIT, L&T Tech) + Cyclical bets smallcase run by Jiten parmar
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