I was checking my thoughts and glad to see above realization right at the bottom of recent crash. It proves to me yet again that my instincts of fear, panic and urge to act and/or think/write becomes most active when the bottom is near…something I have observed over the last 2-3 significant crashes I have seen so far…
Going ahead, I think I need to trust my instincts more than any other noise around…
Recovery in IT has been swift, although most are still long way down their previous highs…however, incremental capital allocated has been rewarded decently over last few months…that is yet…
IT now forms around 7.5% of my portfolio. If I consider it as a single stock, then it would be my 5th largest holding. I think I have reached a decent allocation level now in IT. However, any new crash/wave what experts keep talking about would be welcome to increase allocation at opportune time - unless I see fundamentals deteriorating…
Apart from IT, another part of portfolio I was building but stopped midway was QSR - I had consolidated it to 3 holdings from 5 and it has least allocation as a basket - 3%. I think I am fine with this going ahead. No more action needed on QSR unless I see fundamentals deteriorating in any individual pick.
Lastly, the Consumer durables piece is what’s been hurting the medium term performance the most - This is 5% of my portfolio and I am making losses in overall basket ever since I started building it since 2020 crash. I see this as a gap in my portfolio to be eventually filled. In hindsight, I might have rushed to build allocation way early anticipating pent up demand buying when things open up (not because I wanted to play the trade but thought I might not get them at lower prices later). However, I completely missed the possible Inflation piece, but who would have anticipated that back in 2020 or early 2021…
As I see now, Inflation hurt Consumer Durables the most as they are not able to manage the huge surge in costs as well as say an FMCG or any other consumer facing business…In hindsight, few years from now, this maybe one of best times to buy such businesses…however with 5% allocation I seem appetite full at the moment and also not able to identify clear leaders in segments I like to expand allocation…Sometimes, I think it would have been better to chose more Discretionary names rather than durables - but as far as my history goes, I get such thoughts near bottom…so refraining from acting much here…
Overall recovery in portfolio has been decent. It is now 2.5% below its all time high.
Sensex is down around 4.7% and BSE Midcap Index down by 8.8% from its all time high, so I have nothing to complain here…
Although, I am aware that my stocks are always the first to recover and then I have to play a long waiting/consolidating game…but thats fine…its something I am well aware of so would wait for the Indexes to catch up…unless any top holdings give a positive surprise in performance…
Disc: Above thoughts only for academic purposes. I can be wrong in all my assessments. Not eligible for any advice or recommendations.
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